Asia's imports of liquefied natural gas are likely to rise to a three-month high in October despite the surge in spot prices to the most in almost four years.

October arrivals in the top-importing region are estimated at 23.31 million metric tons, the strongest since July's 23.38 million, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

October will also be the second-highest monthly total since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, which started on February 28 when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

The war resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning Qatar, the world's second-biggest LNG exporter with about a 19% market share, was largely unable to ship cargoes to buyers in Asia and Europe.

The recovery in October comes amid increased buying by China, the world's largest importer of the super-chilled fuel, with Kpler forecasting arrivals of 5.47 million tons, up from 5.20 million in September and the third-strongest month so far in 2026.

China is viewed as a price-sensitive LNG buyer, so the increase in October is a sign that demand ahead of the northern winter is outweighing the rise in spot prices.

Spot LNG for delivery to north Asia rose to $29.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week to October 16, the highest since December 2023 and almost triple the $10.40 that prevailed at the end of February prior to the outbreak of the Iran war.

The high prices had curbed China's demand for LNG to the extent that it is likely to give back the title of the world's biggest importer to Japan this year.

However, Japan's October imports are expected to decline to a five-month low of 4.47 million tons by Kpler from 4.63 million in September.

This is a reflection that Japan's utilities have adequate inventories, with data from commodity price reporting agency Argus showing they had inventories of 2.54 million tons of LNG as of October 18, up 36% from the same time in 2025.

While Japan does buy spot cargoes, much of its LNG imports are under long-term contracts linked to the price of Brent crude oil.

With Brent futures surging in recent months to trade above $100 for much of September and October, Japan's term LNG imports are likely to be more expensive, which in turn will discourage utilities from buying.

Brent's front-month contract was at $110.29 a barrel in early Asian trade on Thursday as the oil market continued to price in an extended conflict in the Middle East and the concomitant risk to supplies.

The higher LNG prices are also keeping a lid on European purchases, with Kpler estimating October imports at 9.11 million tons.

While this is up from 7.76 million tons in September, it is down from the 10.59 million in October last year, extending a recent run of weaker imports in 2026 than for the same months in 2025.

Europe's modest LNG imports are perhaps surprising given the European Union's natural gas inventories are only 74.6% filled as of October 21, 11 percentage points below where they were this time last year.

It's likely that Europe's LNG demand will increase in coming months as winter intensifies, but much will depend on both the availability of cargoes and whether temperatures are warmer than usual.

Forecasters are predicting a strong El Nino event this northern winter, something that would usually result in warmer and wetter weather for Europe.

Conversely a strong El Nino may result in more severe winter storms for North Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea, which could bolster LNG demand for heating.