特朗普无法将乌克兰交给普京——他应停止尝试史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳周二抵达挪威，与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基和欧洲领导人会面。他们带来的议程是：与俄罗斯达成单方面和平协议，结束乌克兰战争。
Trump can’t deliver Ukraine to Putin — and he should stop trying to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Norway on Tuesday to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders. They brought the agenda: a one-sided peace deal with Russia, ending the war in Ukraine.
自上次在基辅会面以来，情况没有任何变化。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京没有退让其极限要求。乌克兰不会放弃剩余11%的顿涅茨克地区，而美国也没有准备提供或支持有意义的安全保障。
Nothing has changed since their last meeting in Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not backed off his maximalist demands. Ukraine is not going to give up the remaining 11 percent of Donetsk, and the U.S. is not prepared to provide or support meaningful security guarantees.
是的，特朗普总统想要结束战争，但并非为了乌克兰或北约的防务；而是为了与俄罗斯争取“经济机会”。普京派基里尔·德米特里耶夫前往迈阿密、莫斯科、纽约和华盛顿，诱使特朗普团队赢得其军队无法夺取的东西——乌克兰。
Yes, President Trump wants an end to the war, but not for the sake of Ukraine or the defense of NATO; rather, to secure “economic opportunities” with Russia. Putin has had Kirill Dmitriev travel to Miami, Moscow, New York and Washington to entice Team Trump to win something that his military cannot deliver — Ukraine.
特朗普也无法交付乌克兰。这位“交易的艺术”大师无法达成交易，他继续使用前所未有的手段向泽连斯基施压，迫其接受一个糟糕的协议。
Trump has not been able to deliver Ukraine either. Mr. Art of the Deal cannot close the deal, and he continues using tactics unbecoming of any president before him to pressure Zelensky into making a bad deal.
据报道，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯延迟将欧洲盟友提供的美国制造“爱国者”拦截导弹转移给乌克兰——这些导弹对乌克兰防空至关重要，保护关键能源基础设施和民众免受俄罗斯导弹袭击。
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reportedly delayed the transfer of U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles from European allies to Ukraine — missiles vital to Ukraine’s air defenses, protecting critical energy infrastructure and civilians from Russian missile attacks.
据路透社报道，10月中旬，乌克兰对“星盾”系统的使用权限大幅下降，干扰了无人机作战和战场通信。“限制卫星系统的命令来自白宫内部”，尽管特朗普否认有任何牵涉。
Ukraine’s access to Starshield was significantly degraded in mid-October, disrupting drone operations and battlefield communications. According to Reuters, the “order to limit the satellite system came from inside the White House,” although Trump has denied any involvement.
特朗普还在继续公开抨击泽连斯基。周一离开白宫时，他对记者说，泽连斯基“不想停止”战争，“没有多大帮助。我认为是时候让别人代表乌克兰进行谈判了。”
Trump also continues to berate Zelensky publicly. As he departed the White House on Monday, he told reporters that Zelensky “doesn’t want to stop” the war and “is not helping matters much. I think it’s time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.”
特朗普只字未提俄罗斯对乌克兰平民或关键能源基础设施的袭击。他只是说，“坦白说，俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上表现不错。他们没做太多事。”他还说过类似这样的话：“一些城镇被击中或怎样，但主要是年轻士兵。”死去的乌克兰儿童及其母亲的照片讲述了一个截然不同的故事。
Trump made no mention of Russian strikes against Ukrainian civilians or critical energy infrastructure. Only that “Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven’t been doing much.”He has also made statements like, “Some people in a town that got hit or whatever, but mostly young soldiers.”Images of dead Ukrainian children and their mothers tell a different story.
几周前，特朗普曾说“乌克兰战争即将结束”，并称“结束真的越来越近了”。但这种结束不能以牺牲乌克兰为代价。没有任何商业交易或经济机会值得以损害美国价值观——自决、自由和民主——为代价。
Trump said a couple weeks ago “that the war in Ukraine is drawing to a close” and that “the end really is getting closer.”But that end cannot come at the cost of Ukraine. No business deal or economic opportunity is worth the cost of compromised American values — self determination, freedom, and democracy.
昨天，特朗普对记者说：“我想看到人们不再死亡。他们大概平均每个月损失2.5万到3.5万名士兵。我只希望泽连斯基和普京停止战争。”他没提的是，他们——俄罗斯士兵——之所以死亡，只是因为他们继续攻击乌克兰的防御阵地。他们随时可以撤离——普京只需下令即可。然而，乌克兰面临生存威胁，正在进行自卫。而且乌克兰在制造俄罗斯伤亡方面变得相当高效，上个月俄罗斯伤亡已超过5万。
Yesterday, Trump told reporters, “I want to see people not die. They’re losing, probably on average, 25,000 to 35,000 soldiers every single month. All I want is for Zelensky and Putin to stop the war.”What he left out was that they — Russian soldiers — were dying only because they continue to attack Ukrainian defensive positions. They could leave at any time — Putin needs only to say the word. Ukraine, however, is facing an existential threat and defending itself. And it has become quite efficient in producing Russian casualties, surpassing 50,000 last month.
普京的军队无法在战场上获胜，但他准备继续俄式战争方式，直到西方停止支持受害者。他向克里姆林宫下达了“如今无规则”的交战规则，实际上对乌克兰平民敞开了狩猎季节。
Putin’s army cannot win on the battlefield, but he is prepared to continue the Russian way of war until the West stops supporting his victim. He has mandated to the Kremlin a “no-rules-now” rule of engagement that essentially makes it open season on Ukrainian civilians.
但现实是，过去四年半一直没有规则。这正是我们今天在乌克兰所目睹的。
But in reality, there have been no rules for the last four and a half years. And that is what we are witnessing today in Ukraine.
如果特朗普真想停止杀戮，他应该要求俄罗斯地面部队停止进攻，要求克里姆林宫停止轰炸乌克兰城市，并要求普京将部队撤回本国边境之内。
If Trump really wants to stop the killing, he should demand that Russian ground forces stop attacking, that the Kremlin stop bombing Ukrainian cities and that Putin withdraw his troops to within his country’s borders.
特朗普团队正在向错误的目标施压。普京是出于虚弱才回到谈判桌前的。制裁——国家经济实力的工具——以及乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的打击，迫使不情愿的普京和德米特里耶夫重返谈判桌。他们需要经济投资才能生存。现在绝不是奖励他们失败的时候。
Team Trump is applying pressure to the wrong target. Putin has come back to the table out of weakness. Sanctions — the economic instrument of national power — and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have forced an unwilling Putin and Dmitriev back to the negotiating table. They need the economic investment to survive. This is no time to reward them for losing.
普京的经济甚至他的政权都陷入了麻烦。乌克兰已瘫痪俄罗斯51%的炼油能力，随着“火点”导弹投入使用，剩下的49%也已列入打击目标清单。
Putin’s economy and even his regime is in trouble. Ukraine has knocked out 51 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity and has the other 49 percent on the target list as Fire Point missiles come on line.
特朗普将放弃乌克兰人在战场上用生命换来的筹码，以换取普京极可能根本不会兑现的未来经济机会。
Trump would give away the leverage that Ukrainians have died on the battlefield to create, in exchange for future economic opportunities Putin likely will not honor anyway.
特朗普需要一种新方法。他应该利用普京的弱点，扭转局面。和平必须让莫斯科付出代价——而不是作为一种奖赏。
Trump needs a new approach. He should exploit Putin’s weakness and flip the script. Peace must come at a cost for Moscow — not as a reward.
任何与俄罗斯达成的未来协议，都必须以立即停火、俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军和安全保障为前提。还必须包括莫斯科停止对北约发动混合战争。
Any future deals with Russia must be contingent upon an immediate cease-fire, a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine and security guarantees. It must also include a cessation of Moscow’s hybrid war against NATO.
如果莫斯科拒绝，经济制裁必须保持原状。美国必须继续向乌克兰提供情报支持，以打击俄罗斯为战争提供资金和发动战争的能力，支持北约在乌克兰上空实施主动防空，并继续“优先乌克兰需求清单”计划，为乌克兰提供武器弹药。
If Moscow refuses, economic sanctions must remain in place. And the U.S. must continue to provide Ukraine the intelligence support it needs to target Russia’s ability to fund and wage war, support a NATO active air defense over Ukraine and continue the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List program that provides Ukraine with weapons and ammunition.
特朗普需要成为解决问题的一部分，停止助长普京自行制造的问题。
Trump needs to be part of the solution and stop contributing to the problem Putin chose to create.
退役上校乔纳森·斯威特曾担任军事情报官员30年，并于2012年至2014年领导美国欧洲司令部情报接触部。马克·托斯撰写关于国家安全和外交政策的文章。他们是INTREP360以及Substack上的《INTREP360情报报告》的联合创始人。
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the cofounders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.