周五，路透社持仓指数（ROI）用五张关键图表概括了过去一周的金融动态，凸显出过去五天所定义的主要趋势、惊喜和被忽视的走势。
Friday, Reuters Open Interest (ROI) distills the financial week into five key charts, spotlighting the major trends, surprises and overlooked moves that defined the past five days.
杰米·麦吉弗（JAMIE MCGEEVER），ROI 市场专栏作者：涨了就得……继续涨上去？自OpenAI推出ChatGPT以来近四年，AI相关股票基本上一直呈现这种态势。摩根大通私人银行的迈克尔·森巴莱斯特（Michael Cembalest）认为，自ChatGPT于2022年11月上线以来，AI相关股票贡献了标普500指数75%的回报、80%的盈利增长以及90%的资本支出增长。
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: What goes up must ... keep going up? That has largely been the case for AI-related stocks since OpenAI launched ChatGPT nearly four years ago. JPMorgan Private Bank's Michael Cembalest reckons AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital-spending growth since ChatGPT's November 2022 launch.
但股市的繁荣并不一定意味着美国经济也将同样强劲增长。人们对AI投资规模、其融资方式以及其是否最终能带来足够回报的担忧正在加剧。也许涨得高的东西最终也会跌下来。
But the stock-market boom is not necessarily translating into an equally powerful economic one for the US. And concerns are mounting over the scale of AI investment, how it is funded and whether it will ultimately deliver adequate returns. Perhaps what goes up must come down. Eventually.
安娜·希曼斯基（ANNA SZYMANSKI），ROI 主管编辑：上个月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨0.6%，增速快于8月的0.4%，使得12个月涨幅达到3.7%，这主要归因于汽油价格上涨9.1%。然而，令市场更为担忧的是核心通胀读数——即剔除食品和能源后的数据。该指数在9月份上涨0.3%，略高于经济学家的共识预期，受住房成本和机票价格显著上涨的推动。这加剧了人们对美国利率将长期维持在高位的担忧，因为美联储正努力将通胀率降回2%的目标。
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% last month, faster than the 0.4% increase in August, bringing the 12-month rate to 3.7%, largely due to a 9.1% rise in gasoline prices. More worrying for markets, however, was the core inflation reading, which strips out food and energy. It jumped 0.3% in September, slightly above economists' consensus forecast, driven by notable increases in housing costs and airline fares. This heightened concerns that US interest rates will stay higher for longer as the Federal Reserve seeks to return inflation to its 2% target.
这反过来又导致投资者纷纷抛售——或对冲——一些负债较高的AI公司，这些公司可能难以产生足够的现金来偿付更高的债务成本。专注于AI的云计算公司CoreWeave（CRWV.O）在周四成为最大的跌幅股之一。根据S&P全球市场情报的数据，其五年期信用违约掉期（CDS）一度飙升至1100个基点以上，而该公司2031年到期债券的收益率一度升至高达16%，随后有所回落。
That, in turn, caused investors to flee — or hedge — some of the more heavily indebted AI companies, which may struggle to generate enough cash to service higher debt costs. CoreWeave (CRWV.O), the AI-focused cloud-computing firm, was among the biggest losers on Thursday. Its 5-year credit default swap surged past 1,100 basis points at one point, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, while the yield on the company's 2031 bond rose to as high as 16% before retreating.
RON BOUSSO，ROI 能源专栏作家：随着伊朗战争持续，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普以几句话压低油价市场的标志性能力正在减弱，使全球能源价格更易受到升级冲击。特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京就柴油达成的协议在市场上的反应平淡，这是最新例证。
RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: US President Donald Trump's trademark ability to talk down oil markets with a few words is fading as the Iran war drags on, leaving global energy prices far more exposed to escalation. The market's muted reaction to Trump's diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin is the latest example.
这反映出一个更深层的问题。自伊朗战争爆发以来，俄罗斯和中东地区约200万桶/日的炼油能力损失，以及全球石油库存的急剧下降，使能源市场陷入危险境地，这种状况无法仅靠修辞或相对较小的供应增加来解决。
This reflects a deeper problem. The loss of around 2 million barrels per day of refining capacity in Russia and the Middle East, and the sharp drawdown in global oil inventories since the start of the Iran war, have left energy markets in a precarious position that cannot be fixed through rhetoric or relatively small supply additions.
MIKE DOLAN，ROI 财经与市场专栏作家：9月份，中国的贸易顺差因出口激增而超出预期扩大，引发欧洲及其他地区对“中国冲击2.0”的担忧，因为该国更多商品正流向海外市场。
MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: China's trade surplus widened more than expected in September as exports surged, stoking anxiety in Europe and elsewhere about a "China shock 2.0" as more of the country's goods flow into overseas markets.
对半导体和绿色技术产品的强劲需求使中国的工厂保持高产。出口同比增长36%，为自2月以来的最快增速，高于8月的25%，也远高于预测的26%增长。
Strong demand for semiconductors and green-tech products has kept China's factories humming. Exports jumped 36% from a year earlier — the fastest pace since February — up from 25% in August and well above forecasts for 26% growth.
进口增长同样超出预期，但贸易顺差仍达9380亿美元，占前九个月的总额。它现在有望比去年早一个月突破1万亿美元大关，这增加了对欧洲施压以推动人民币升值和实现公平竞争的压力。
Import growth also beat expectations, but the trade surplus still reached $938 billion in the first nine months. It is now on track to top $1 trillion a month earlier than last year, adding to pressure on Europe to push for a stronger yuan and fairer competition.
GAVIN MAGUIRE，ROI 全球能源转型专栏作家：在中东，石油供应的恢复速度快于燃料产出，因为该地区多家炼油厂在与伊朗的冲突中受损后仍未恢复运营。这对亚洲的炼油商有利，亚洲拥有比任何其他地区都多的炼油能力。
GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: Oil supplies are recovering faster than fuel output in the Middle East, where several regional refineries remain offline after sustaining damage during the conflict with Iran. That bodes well for refiners in Asia, home to more refining capacity than any other region.
印度、中国、韩国和新加坡的大型沿海综合体是为大规模接收原油而建，用于将原油转化为汽油、柴油和喷气燃料，供应全球市场。如果中东原油出口继续增长，亚洲炼油商似乎已处于有利位置，能够捕获将这些原油桶转化为推动全球经济运转的燃料所创造的大部分价值。
The massive coastal complexes in India, China, South Korea and Singapore were built to receive crude oil in bulk and convert it into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for global markets. If Middle Eastern crude exports continue to rise, Asian refiners appear well positioned to capture much of the value created by turning those barrels into the fuels that power the global economy.
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