曼谷，10月16日：人工智能的蓬勃发展正引发全球范围内的资金争夺战，迫使各国央行官员不得不思考这样一个未来：在经历了宽松政策时代后，利率将维持在较高水平，各国政府也需紧缩开支。
BANGKOK, Oct 16 : The artificial intelligence boom is setting off a global race for money, forcing central bankers to contemplate a future in which interest rates stay higher and governments need to tighten their belts after an era of largesse.
从半导体芯片、数据中心到电网与电信网络，各国政府及企业纷纷向与人工智能直接或间接相关的项目投入巨资。这些投资为全球经济注入动力，同时也推高了借贷成本。
From silicon chips and data centres to power grids and telecoms networks, governments and companies are pouring money into projects tied directly or indirectly to AI, adding fuel to the global economy and pushing up borrowing costs. Central bankers from the world's largest economies gathering in Bangkok said the boom was also creating fresh inflation pressures and financial risks, because the investment is arriving long before the productivity gains AI promises.
齐聚曼谷的全球主要经济体央行官员们指出，由于人工智能带来的生产力提升尚未显现，而相关投资却已大量涌入，这一热潮正催生新的通胀压力与金融风险。
"If you're a central banker...you've got to recognise this as a shock," Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bangkok.
“作为央行官员……必须认识到这是一场冲击，”美联储主席凯文·沃什在国际货币基金组织与世界银行年度会议上说道，“这种冲击显然首先作用于经济的需求端，随后才会波及供给端。”沃什表示，美国正从广泛出现的“投资热潮”中受益，但他也警告称，由于最终谁能从这项技术中获益尚不明朗，投资者、企业及政策制定者都将面临一段“极为坎坷”的转型期。本周亚洲科技股遭遇抛售的现象，也印证了这一点。
"It's obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before it's going to hit the supply side." Warsh, who said the US was benefiting from a broadening "surge of investment", warned the transition could be "very bumpy" as investors, companies and policymakers grappled with a technology whose ultimate winners remain unclear. Several of his colleagues from the G20 group of large economies also in the Thai capital said it would only take a slight reassessment of the rosy earnings prospects underpinning AI investments to cause profound market ructions, as a selloff in Asian tech stocks showed this week.
其他几位出席会议的G20成员国央行官员也指出，只要市场对支撑人工智能投资的乐观盈利预期稍作调整，就可能引发剧烈的市场动荡——本周亚洲科技股的走势便是例证。
STARS BEHIND THE CLOUDS The debate marks a striking shift from the years following the 2008 financial crisis, when policymakers worried about excess global savings and inflation that was persistently too low.
这场争论标志着与2008年金融危机后数年间的显著变化：当时政策制定者们担忧的是全球储蓄过剩以及持续低迷的通胀水平。如今，央行官员们却越来越多地面临截然相反的问题：对资本的需求过于旺盛。
Now central bankers increasingly see the opposite problem: too much demand for capital. "There is a global fight for money," ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks told Reuters.
“全球正在为资金展开争夺，”欧洲央行政策制定者马丁斯·卡扎克斯对路透社表示。“人工智能的投资是推高资金成本的关键因素之一。”这种压力正因美国、日本和德国等国政府为国防、工业政策和能源项目大举借款而被放大。
"Investment in AI is one of the key factors driving up the cost of money." That pressure is being amplified by governments from the United States to Japan and Germany borrowing heavily for defence, industrial policy and energy projects. For central bankers, the implication is that the level of interest rates needed to keep economies on an even keel, known as R-star, may be rising.
对于央行行长而言，这意味着维持经济平稳运行所需的利率水平——即所谓的R星——可能正在上升。
"The problem at the moment in calculating the R-star is that the stars are covered by the clouds, and the clouds are so thick," South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said.
“目前计算R星的问题是，星星被云层遮住了，而云层非常厚，”南非储备银行行长莱塞特贾·康亚戈表示。”我们知道R星更高，但不知道具体有多高。”更高的中性利率意味着相同的利率水平相比之前而言具有更弱的限制性。
"We know that R-star is higher, but we do not know how high." A higher neutral rate means the same level of interest rate is less restrictive than previously thought. "Maybe rates, on average, will be that little bit higher," said Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill.
“也许平均利率会略微上升一些，”英格兰银行首席经济学家胡韦尔·皮尔表示。
The Bank of Japan has already cited AI-related demand as a factor behind its recent rate increases, arguing that investment-driven price pressures have become broader and more persistent.
日本央行已经将人工智能相关需求列为其近期加息的一个因素，认为由投资驱动的价格压力已经变得更广泛且更具持续性。
Economists expect the Bank of England to raise rates at its next meeting on November 5.
经济学家预计英格兰银行将在11月5日的下次会议上加息。欧洲央行和美联储在9月已经加息，市场已将两者在12月再次加息的可能性计入价格。
The ECB and Fed raised rates in September, and markets have priced in another move by them both in December. NO MORE CHEAP MONEY The prospect of structurally higher borrowing costs poses a challenge for governments that built up large debts during years when interest rates hovered near zero.
不再有廉价资金 结构性更高的借贷成本前景对那些在利率长期接近零的年份里积累了巨额债务的政府构成挑战。
Sovereign bond yields have risen across the world, and in recent weeks some have reached levels not seen since before the global financial crisis.
全球主权债券收益率已上升，最近几周有些已达到自全球金融危机前以来未见的水平。欧元区，尤其是负债累累的法国，被视为特别脆弱。
The euro zone, and notably debt-laden France, was seen as particularly exposed. Much of the AI-driven investment surge is taking place in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Japan and other parts of Asia, with ASML and Siemens among the few clear European winners.
人工智能驱动的投资激增主要发生在美国，以及在较小程度上发生在日本和亚洲其他地区，ASML和西门子是少数几个明显的欧洲受益者。
Meanwhile, the bloc faces higher energy costs from wars in Iran and Ukraine, compounding inflation pressures and squeezing public finances.
与此同时，由于伊朗和乌克兰的战争导致能源成本上升，进一步加剧了通胀压力，并挤压了公共财政。
"There are particular circumstances that lead to some countries being more affected, France being a case in point," ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a CNN event in Bangkok.
“存在一些特殊情况，导致某些国家受到更大影响，法国就是一个典型案例，”欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在曼谷举行的CNN活动上表示。“而对于这种情况，首要且首要的解决方案在于法国国内。这与财政政策有关。”
"And for that one, the primary and first solution lies at home in France. And it has to do with fiscal policies."