得承认，特朗普总统做到了。他已经得罪了民主党，疏远了无党派选民，现在，为了更彻底，还让共和党人也反感了。距离中期选举仅剩几周，这显然不是什么高明的政治策略。正如《纽约时报》的一篇标题所言：“迹象表明，士气低落的共和党选民可能会在11月缺席投票。”显然，甚至一些共和党人也受够了。他们厌倦了混乱，厌倦了不断的争斗，厌倦了每日的闹剧。
You have to hand it to President Trump. He has managed to offend Democrats, alienate independents, and now, just for good measure, turn off Republicans, too. This is not exactly a brilliant political strategy with the midterm elections just a few weeks away. As a headline in the New York Times put it: “Signs are emerging that dispirited Republican voters may stay home in November.”Apparently, even some Republicans have had enough. They’re tired of the chaos, tired of the constant feuding, tired of the daily drama.
用一个词——不，两个词——来说，他们厌倦了特朗普。《纽约时报》引用一名前密歇根州众议院共和党议员的话说：“人们很累了。那个‘分裂者之首’的把戏，已经到了让人筋疲力尽的地步。”可以肯定，他并非孤例。那么特朗普的解决办法是什么？他告诉共和党人，就好像他本人在选票上一样去投票。当心你所愿。一些共和党人可能会听从他的建议——然后待在家里。
In a word — make that two words — they’re tired of Trump. The Times quotes a former Republican member of the Michigan House of Representatives who put it this way: “People are tired. The whole divider-in-chief thing, it’s gotten to the point where it’s just exhausting.”And it’s a safe bet that he’s not alone. So what is Trump’s solution? He is telling Republicans to vote as if he were on the ballot. Careful what you wish for. Some Republicans may take his advice — and stay home.
这显然不是特朗普想要的，但同样，从来没有人指责他低估了自己的受欢迎程度。特朗普一直是他自己的头号粉丝。你会觉得，他以为自己自恋，其他人也应该如此。很快我们就会知道，他是否能说服失望的共和党人在选举日出现。他的论点很简单：投共和党的票，否则你会后悔。因为他警告说，如果民主党控制国会，黑暗的日子即将到来。
That’s not exactly what Trump had in mind, but then again, nobody has ever accused him of underestimating his own popularity. Trump has always been his own biggest fan. You get the impression that he thinks that because he’s in love with himself, everybody else should be too. We’ll know soon enough whether he can persuade disillusioned Republicans to show up on Election Day. His pitch is simple: Vote Republican or you’ll regret it. Because if Democrats take control of Congress, he warns, dark days are ahead.
也许吧。但有一件事我们可以相当有把握地说：如果民主党拿下众议院——以及可能的参议院——黑暗的日子确实将到来。这对特朗普和共和党人尤其如此，他们将突然发现，当对方掌握主动权时，生活是什么样子。那么，如果特朗普的政党最终落得个门外汉的下场，他能期待什么呢？我们先从弹劾说起。
Maybe. But here’s something we can say with considerably more confidence: If Democrats take the House — and possibly the Senate — dark days really will be ahead. This is especially so for Trump and for Republicans, who will suddenly discover what life is like when the other team gets to call the plays. So what can the president expect if his party winds up on the outside looking in? Let’s start with impeachment.
更聪明的民主党人可能会意识到，第三次弹劾特朗普将是一个政治错误。即使是那些无法忍受特朗普的美国人，也可能对另一场弹劾闹剧兴趣不大。但硬左派不会对政治智慧感兴趣。他们将不惜一切代价公开羞辱特朗普。而且，如果众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（民主党-纽约州）成为议长，他很可能会摇摆不定。
The smarter Democrats may recognize that impeaching Trump for a third time would be a political mistake. Even Americans who can’t stand Trump may have little appetite for another impeachment circus. But the hard left won’t be interested in political wisdom. They will want to publicly humiliate Trump at any cost. And there’s a decent chance that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), if he becomes speaker, will go wobbly.
他会发现，站出来对抗他党内最响亮的声音，比顺从他们更困难。至于所谓的“高罪行和轻罪”，民主党无疑会找到符合他们定义的东西。你可以任选其一：驱逐出境、总统特赦、白宫东翼的拆除、伊朗战争。而且为什么只停在特朗普本人身上？国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯、司法部长托德·布兰切、FBI局长卡什·帕特尔以及其他各种特朗普忠诚者可能会发现自己陷入国会的十字准线之中。
He will discover that standing up to his party’s loudest voices is harder than giving in to them. As for high crimes and misdemeanors, Democrats will undoubtedly find something that fits their definition. Take your pick: deportations, presidential pardons, the demolition of the White House East Wing, the war in Iran. And why stop with Trump himself? Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche, FBI Director Kash Patel and assorted other Trump loyalists could find themselves in the congressional crosshairs.
然后就会是各种调查。大量的调查。特朗普家族企业。杰弗里·爱泼斯坦。关税。白宫舞厅。总统对新闻媒体中批评者的攻击。纳税人资助的，恰好让特朗普看起来很美好的事情。民主党甚至可能试图传唤总统本人。祝你好 luck。在他甚至还没考虑去国会山回答民主党人抛出的问题之前——那些憎恨他一切的人——他就会告诉他们他们可以把传票怎么处理。
Then come the investigations. Lots and lots of investigations. The Trump family business. Jeffrey Epstein. Tariffs. The White House ballroom. The president’s attacks on his critics in the news media. Taxpayer-funded s that just happen to make Trump look wonderful. Democrats may even try to subpoena the president himself. Good luck with that. He’ll tell them what they can do with their subpoena before he even thinks about going to Capitol Hill to answer questions thrown at him by Democrats who loathe everything about him.
但他们也许更有可能在国会委员会面前拖来他身边的人，比如他的幕僚长苏西·怀尔斯，她知道民主党想从她那里听到什么样的东西——而她是在宣誓下作证。另一个小概率事件，几乎可以说她根本不会说话。但民主党不会在乎——只要能让特朗普团队痛苦。所以，做好准备迎接听证会、传票、指控、反指控以及足以让有线电视新闻再运营十年的政治戏码吧。
But they might have better luck dragging people around him before congressional committees, people like his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, who knows the kind of stuff Democrats would love to hear from her — while she’s under oath. Another long shot, bordering on no way she would talk. But Democrats won’t care — anything to make Team Trump miserable. So, get ready for hearings, subpoenas, accusations, counteraccusations and enough political theater to keep cable news in business for another decade.
当然，这一切都不是不可避免的。民调之前也出过错，这次也可能出错。但我不会打赌它会错。太多民调都在告诉我们同一件事：特朗普的受欢迎程度大约和流感差不多，甚至可能还低一点。由于中期选举本质上是对总统的成绩单，共和党人有充分理由担忧——尤其是当总统决心让选举完全围绕他自己时。如果结果像共和党人担心的那样糟糕，我们不必等太久就能看到事后分析。
Of course, none of this is inevitable. Polls have been wrong before. They could be wrong again. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Too many polls are telling us the same thing: Trump is about as popular — maybe even a little less popular — than the flu. And since midterm elections are essentially a report card on the president, Republicans have good reason to worry —especially when the president is determined to make the election all about himself. And if the results are as bad as Republicans fear, we won't have to wait long for the postmortem.
它很可能在投票站关闭后大约10秒就开始。特朗普会责怪假新闻媒体，责怪选举被操纵，责怪RINO、不忠的共和党人、糟糕的候选人，以及任何碰巧在他喊得着范围内的人。但有一件事我们可以肯定：无论选举日发生什么，特朗普都会找到替罪羊。而我们都知道，那个人不会是他自己。伯纳德·戈德伯格是一位获得艾美奖和阿尔弗雷德·I·杜邦-哥伦比亚大学奖的作家和记者。他著有五本书，并在其Substack页面上发布独家每周专栏、音频评论和问答。
It'll probably begin about 10 seconds after the polls close. Trump will blame the fake news media. He’ll blame rigged elections. He’ll blame RINOs, disloyal Republicans, lousy candidates and anybody else who happens to be within shouting distance. But there's one thing we can count on: Whatever happens on Election Day, Trump will find somebody to blame. And we all know who it won't be. Bernard Goldberg is an Emmy and an Alfred I. duPont-Columbia University award-winning writer and journalist. He is the author of five books and publishes exclusive weekly columns, audio commentaries and Q&As on his Substack page.