欧元有望终结对美元连续五周的跌势，原因是美联储主席凯文·沃什的言论削弱了美元。
The euro was poised to snap a five-week run of losses against the dollar as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh weakened the greenback.
尽管期权定价仍显示欧元在未来几个月将面临压力，但该共同货币在本周末获得了喘息之机。欧元上涨0.3%至1.1251美元，收复了周三触及的17个月低点所失去的部分阵地。
The common currency won a respite at the end of the week, even as options pricing continued to suggest it will face pressure in the months ahead. The euro advanced 0.3% to $1.1251, clawing back ground from a 17-month low on Wednesday.
大西洋两岸利率走势是交易员关注的焦点，而欧洲央行与美联储利率差距将进一步扩大的迹象一直在打压欧元。本周中期美国通胀数据偏热，激发了市场对美国加息的预期，从而提振了美元。
The trajectory of interest rates on either side of the Atlantic is a key focus for traders and signs that the gap between European and US central bank rates will widen has hurt the euro. A hot US inflation print midweek spurred expectations for US hikes, boosting the dollar.
但沃什在周五的言论被解读为支持美联储在本月会议上维持利率不变的观点。这阻止了美元的涨势，并帮助欧元连续第二天上涨，使其有望实现本周0.5%的涨幅。周五，所有十国集团货币均对美元走高。
But comments from Warsh on Friday were interpreted as supporting the case for the Fed to keep rates on hold when it meets this month. That halted the dollar’s gains and helped lift the euro for a second day, putting it on track for a 0.5% advance in the week. All Group-of-10 currencies were climbing versus the greenback on Friday.
“我们认为这一走势是由持仓驱动的，”三菱日联银行有限公司高级外汇策略师李·哈德曼说。“最近多头美元头寸一直在积累，而本周更强劲的美国通胀数据之后缺乏后续走强，令市场感到失望。”在期权市场，欧元情绪有所改善，但仍处于负面状态，因为对法国预算赤字的担忧仍在施压。基于看涨期权和看跌期权相对价格的一个指标显示，交易员在整个曲线上持看跌态度，且在更长期限上负面持仓更为明显，一年期限上的看跌情绪达到最严重水平。
“We see this move as driven by positioning,” Lee Hardman, a senior forex strategist at MUFG Bank Ltd., said. “Long dollar positions had been built up recently and there is disappointment by lack of follow-through strength after stronger US inflation data this week.”In the options market, sentiment has improved for the euro, but remains negative as concerns about France’s budget deficit weigh. One gauge based on the relative price of puts and calls shows that traders are bearish across the curve, with negative positioning becoming more pronounced at longer maturities and reaching its most bearish level on a one-year horizon.
本月初法国债券市场的动荡产生了连锁反应，削弱了欧元。投资者认为，欧洲多年来最高的政府收益率将阻碍经济增长，使欧洲央行对加息持谨慎态度，并可能导致其与美国的利率差距进一步扩大。
Turmoil in French bond markets earlier this month had the knock-on effect of weakening the euro. Investors assumed that the highest government yields on the continent in years would hamper economic growth, making the European Central Bank wary of hiking and potentially widening the rates gap with the US.
“利率预期一如既往将是关键变量，”BNY Mellon的策略师Geoffrey Yu表示。“目前我们看到欧元逐步走弱，因为市场已经消化了ECB的加息预期，”他说。
“Rate expectations as always will be the key variable,” said Geoffrey Yu, a strategist at BNY Mellon. “For now we see gradual euro weakness as interest-rate hikes are priced out” for the ECB, he said.
彭博策略师观点……“投资者对欧元区政策利率的紧缩预期将出现放缓，这将进一步加剧欧元的困境。隔夜指数掉期显示，市场正在计入近三次额外的加息，这基于当前油价和通胀数据构成尾部风险。当这种定价被解除时，欧元——它已经在明年法国总统大选前走弱——将进一步下跌。”——Ven Ram，跨资产策略师。
What Bloomberg Strategists Say...“The steep tightening trajectory that investors are assigning for euro-area policy rates will falter, adding to the euro’s travails. Overnight indexed swaps are factoring in nearly three more rate increases, which represent a tail risk based on current oil prices and inflation metrics. When that pricing unravels, the euro — which has already weakened ahead of French presidential elections next year — will fall more.”— Ven Ram, cross-asset strategist. Click here for more.
ING的货币策略师Francesco Pesole认为，欧元在未来几个月将主要局限在对美元1.10至1.15的区间内。
Francesco Pesole, a currency strategist at ING, sees the euro largely confined to a 1.10-1.15 range against the dollar in the coming months.
虽然他警告称，法国财政状况的恶化可能导致欧元跌向1.07至1.08区间，但他仍然保持对2027年的看涨观点，认为当前的挫折不太可能标志着持续的结构性下跌。
While he warns that a sharper deterioration in French public finances could weaken the euro toward the 1.07-1.08 area, he nonetheless retains a bullish view for 2027, arguing that the current setback is unlikely to mark a lasting structural downturn.
