本周在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织会议上，金融和商业领袖们正面对不确定性。
At the IMF meeting in Bangkok this week finance and business leaders grappled with uncertainty.
费萨尔·伊斯拉姆报道：谈到全球经济的未来方向，目前正在进行一场拉锯战。
By Faisal Islam When it comes to the future direction of the global economy there is a bit of a tug of war going on.
存在着截然对立的力量。一方面，能源冲击、贸易冲突和实际战争等熟悉且反复出现的危机正在抑制增长。这一点在世界发达经济体利息成本的急剧上升中表现得最为明显。
There are starkly opposing forces. On the one hand holding back growth are the familiar, recurring crises from the energy shock, trade conflict and actual war. This is reflected most clearly in the sharply rising interest rate costs for the world's advanced economies.
另一方面，人工智能领域的巨额支出正在推动增长，尤其是较小经济体表现出的坦率令人惊讶的韧性也起到了推动作用。由于必要性，包括石油和天然气在内的新贸易路线已经建立。
Pulling in the other direction is the boost from massive spending on AI, and the frankly astonishing resilience shown especially by smaller economies, as new routes for trade, including for oil and gas, have been established out of necessity.
本周在曼谷的国际货币基金组织会议上，这些主题反复被提及，甚至连最高层的与会者也在讨论。但即便是他们也不清楚事情将往哪个方向发展。
At the IMF meetings in Bangkok this week these themes came up again and again, including among those at the very top table. But not even they know which way things are going to go.
与此同时，这就像是一场运动员的赌注——债券市场的游离目光接下来会聚焦在哪里。目前看来，他们似乎正在关注美国和法国。
In the meantime it's a sportsman's bet where the roving eye of the bond markets will focus next. Currently they seem to be looking at the US and France.
然而，法国财政部长罗兰·莱斯克尔一直在向世界表明，他出售债务并未遇到问题，尽管成本更高，而且他的预算将会没问题。他还暗示自己曾帮助拯救了面临一年前因特朗普引发的紧张局势而濒临崩溃的七国集团发达国家组织。
However, the French finance minister, Roland Lescure, has been telling the world he has had no problem selling debt, though it was more expensive, and that his Budget would be fine. He also suggested he had helped save the G7 group of advanced nations, which was at risk of collapsing a year ago amid Donald Trump-inspired tensions.
从某种角度来看，全球尚未出现经济衰退或主要新兴经济体的债务危机，这本身就算是一个奇迹。事实上，泰国财政部长曾向我炫耀他的借贷成本上升幅度有多小，尤其是相对于美国而言。
In some ways it is a miracle there has not been a global recession, or a debt crisis in a major emerging economy. Indeed the Thai finance minister was boasting to me of how little his borrowing costs had gone up, especially in relation to the US.
另一个惊喜是，英国摆脱了债券市场的“惩戒名单”，反而被国际货币基金组织称为“模范学生”。国际货币基金组织以面值和信任的态度接受了政府的预算计划。现实是，七国集团的其他成员甚至没有达到这一点。而美是相对的，尤其是在借贷方面。
Another surprise is the UK being taken off the bond markets' naughty step, and instead being named model pupil by the IMF. The IMF has taken the government's Budget plans at face value and on trust. The reality is that the rest of the G7 lack even this. And beauty is relative, especially when it comes to borrowing.
这一时刻为财政大臣约翰·希利提供了一个听证会的机会，以强调英国实际增长数据持续超出预期，迄今为止2026年的表现现在可以被描述为强劲。希利告诉我，他将这些数据视为人工智能和科技投资开始提升英国经济增长的首个迹象。在IMF会议期间来回走动的债券融资者们似乎在多年危机后重新审视英国。
And this moment gave Chancellor John Healey the chance of a hearing, to highlight that the UK's actual growth data has continued to outperform expectations and so far in 2026 can now be described as strong. Healey told me that he saw the figures as the first sign that AI and tech investment was starting to increase UK economic growth. The bond financiers milling around the IMF meetings seem to be taking another look at the UK after years of crisis.
但除了地缘政治不稳定和债券市场不确定性之外，还有一个第三个重大挑战需要应对，这一点甚至在曼谷的街头也能看出来，因为司机们在此次本周聚会中将银行家和财政部长们送到会场。
But there is a third big challenge to wrestle with, on top of geopolitical instability and bond market uncertainty, one that's apparent even on the streets of Bangkok, as the chauffeurs dropped off the bankers and finance ministers for this week's gathering.
就像其他国家一样，泰国亲身经历了中国电动汽车销售的惊人增长。泰国有时被称为“亚洲的底特律”，因为其自身拥有强大的汽车制造传统。如今，几乎三分之一的汽车销量来自中国电动汽车。
Like other nations Thailand has experienced first hand the astonishing boom in sales of Chinese electric vehicles. Thailand is sometimes dubbed the "Detroit of Asia" for its own strong car making heritage. Now nearly a third of all car sales are Chinese EVs.
这是众所周知的“中国冲击二”的最清晰例子。中国在先进制造业领域的主导地位以惊人的速度扩张。第一次“中国冲击”出现在2000年代的基础制造业领域。
It is the clearest example of what is known as the China Shock Two. The sheer speed of China's dominance in advanced manufacturing. The first China shock came in the 2000s in basic manufacturing.
这第二波戏剧性变化仅在过去几个月里就导致了对世界贸易运作方式及其管理方式的重新评估。这在欧盟尤其明显，欧盟正匆忙重新评估目前感觉像是单向通道的中欧贸易关系。
This second wave of dramatic change has led in just the last few months to a reappraisal of how world trade is functioning and how it is going to be managed. This is especially the case in the EU, which is scrambling to reassess what currently feels like a one-way street when it comes to China-Europe trade.
欧盟正在制定的额外“欧洲制造”保护措施也将对英国产生深远影响。如果英国不在这套新规则之内，中国可能会将其过剩的汽车产量转移到英国，在那里，就像泰国一样，目前关税较低甚至还有补贴。或者欧盟可能会邀请英国加入，但要求英国效仿其做法，提高关税以匹配其自身水平。
The extra "Made in Europe" protections that the bloc is drawing up will have a profound impact on the UK too. If the UK is outside the new rules, China could divert its excess car production to the UK, where, like Thailand, there are currently lower tariffs and even subsidies. Or the EU could invite Britain in, but ask it to follow its suit by raising tariffs to match its own.
随后还有英国与欧盟关系的副情节。本周在曼谷，这一主题的出现频率超出了预期，甚至似乎提供了一点娱乐。国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在笑声中应和，暗示“脱欧的离婚双方现在又在约会了”。芬兰财政部长告诉我，英国正“ flirtatiously ”与欧盟互动。大型银行也在发布关于“重返欧盟”前景的报告。
Then there is the sub-plot of the UK's relationship with the European Union. This was a theme that cut through more than might have been expected in Bangkok this week and even seemed to provide a little entertainment. The managing director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva rolled with laughter, suggesting the Brexit "divorcees are now dating again". The Finnish finance minister told me the UK was "flirting" with the EU. Major banks were issuing reports about the prospect of "Breturn".
然而，真正被寄予厚望以提供弹簧床般作用、将世界经济从当前多重同时危机的时代弹出的，是人工智能的繁荣——而许多危机又与特朗普总统的决策紧密相关。
It is, however, the AI boom that is being relied on to provide the trampoline that is required to bounce the world economy out of its current era of multiple simultaneous crises, so many of which are linked to the decisions of President Trump.
但即便是这一点也不那么明确。在一个房间里，财政部长们赞美人工智能的变革性经济影响；而在另一个房间，央行行长们则担忧其可能破坏大多数银行体系网络安全的能力。围绕它的金融繁荣不可能持续下去。金融宇宙的主宰们只是庆幸它到目前为止还能持续。
But even that is not clear cut. In one room the transformative economic effect of AI is lionised by finance ministers. In the next, central bankers fret about its power to break the cybersecurity of most of the banking system. The financial boom around it can't last. The masters of the financial universe are just thankful that it has so far.