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特斯拉飞行版Roadster对全球汽车竞赛究竟意味着什么What Tesla’s Flying Roadster Really Means for the Global Auto Race

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特斯拉发布的直播画面截图显示,该公司正在发布其下一代Roadster电动跑车。A grab from a live feed released by Tesla shows the company unveiling its next-generation Roadster electric car.
特斯拉TESLA

[视频] 特斯拉 新款特斯拉Roadster纯属壮观。其设计让这款跑车看起来像是喷气式战斗机与兰博基尼的混合体。一套吸力系统使其能够倒挂在地面69英尺高处。而其定义性特征,则是冷气体火箭推进器,能够让汽车在空中翻滚的同时越过一排车辆。

[video] Tesla The new Tesla Roadster was pure spectacle. There was the design that gave the sports car an appearance of a jet fighter crossed with a Lamborghini. A suction system that enabled it to hang upside down 69 feet above the ground. And, the defining feature, cold-gas rocket thrusters that jumped the car over a line of vehicles while doing a midair barrel roll.

凭借这款能飞的跑车,埃隆·马斯克再次展示了他作为美国最大梦想家的形象。因此,当特斯拉CEO在得克萨斯州沃科附近的火箭设施上周四进行如此炫目的表演时,人们必须予以关注——不是因为新款Roadster将成为畅销车型。经过近十年的许诺,坦率地说,很难相信这款 halo 车型真的会在2028年按照马斯克所描述的所有功能开始量产。

With a flying sports car, Elon Musk displayed again that he’s America’s biggest dreamer. So when the Tesla CEO puts on a flashy show, as he did Thursday at a rocket facility near Waco, Texas, one must take note—not because the new Roadster is going to become a bestseller. After almost a decade of promises, it’s frankly hard to believe the halo car will actually begin production in 2028 with all of the features Musk laid out.

从许多方面来看,它是否能飞已经不是重点。以超凡脱俗的技术揭幕Roadster,再次印证了马斯克已经放弃为普通人设计驾驶的汽车。他表示,Roadster将是特斯拉为人类驾驶而提供的最后一款新车型,而他则在押注将特斯拉改造成一家机器人公司。

In many ways, whether it flies or not is besides the point. Unveiling the Roadster with out-of-this-world technology reiterated that Musk has given up designing cars for regular people to drive. He says the Roadster is the last new vehicle Tesla will offer for humans to drive and is betting instead on remaking Tesla as a robotics company.

实际上,马斯克正在将主流汽车市场留给中国人——他曾暗示,中国人如此强大,以至于许多西方汽车制造商若没有政府干预,就无法与之竞争。这是西方汽车工业未来走向的一个重要信号。

In effect, Musk is leaving the mainstream car market to the Chinese—who, he has suggested, are so formidable that many Western automakers are unable to compete without government intervention. It’s a telling sign of where things are going for the Western automotive industry.

同样地,上周的巴黎车展也呈现出这种趋势。展会看起来更像上海或北京车展,因为众多中国品牌参展。整个欧洲,这些中国品牌的到来正在一夜之间颠覆长期确立的车企格局。

So, too, was this past week’s Paris Motor Show. It looked more like the Shanghai or Beijing auto shows with so many Chinese brands on display. Throughout Europe, the arrival of these Chinese brands is upending long-established players almost overnight.

虽然美国汽车制造商目前仍在其本土市场免受中国竞争的冲击,但他们也似乎陷入优柔寡断的状态。这导致了自至少1970年代以来最低的新车型推出速度。

While U.S. automakers have so far been insulated in their home market from Chinese competition, they, too, seem paralyzed with indecision. That has created the worst rate of new-vehicle introductions since at least the 1970s.

“中国制造使汽商品化,推动成本下降,没有人能与之竞争……西方所剩的只有向上发展或被挤出局,”长期从事汽车行业咨询的迈克尔·邓恩说。他曾在中国工作多年,其新书《汽车战争》将于1月出版。“西方汽车制造商正在演变为未来的利基玩家。”西方汽车制造商目前尚未像特斯拉那样大规模准备研发自己的飞行汽车。但已有迹象表明,一些公司正感受到与马斯克相同的“向上发展或被淘汰”的压力。

“China manufacturing commoditizes cars, drives costs down, no one can compete with them…what remains for the West is to move up or get pushed out,” Michael Dunne, a longtime automotive industry consultant who spent many years in China and who has a book coming out the topic in January called “Car Wars,” said. “Western automakers are evolving into niche players of the future.”Western automakers aren’t yet en masse preparing their own flying cars a la Tesla. But there are signs some are feeling the same up-or-out pressure as Musk.

保时捷面临在中国的销售剧烈下滑,本月早些时候宣布了自身计划,旨在通过提供更昂贵的车辆而非追求销量来提振业务。作为该计划的一部分,它周四透露了Mission S。

Porsche, facing dramatic sales declines in China, announced its own plan earlier this month to bolster its business by offering more expensive vehicles rather than chasing volume. As part of that, it revealed the Mission S Thursday.

诚然,这款中置引擎超级跑车在特斯拉的表演面前有些事后诸葛亮。不过,当马斯克的火箭喷出蒸汽云弥漫天空,而Roadster在空中翻腾时,想要争夺注意力确实很困难。

True, the midengine supercar was something of an afterthought in the face of Tesla’s stunt. Then again, it’s tough to compete for attention when Musk’s rocket vapor-cloud filled the air and the Roadster did flips through the sky.

需要明确的是,马斯克并未将特斯拉的未来押注在成为利基汽车制造商上。新款Roadster的作用与2017年底发布的版本相同:在他在努力实现更宏大承诺的过程中,激发人们的兴奋感。

To be clear, Musk isn’t betting Tesla’s future on being a niche carmaker. The new Roadster serves the same purpose the version revealed in late 2017 did: to stoke excitement while he races to find a way to make his bigger promises true.

在周四的活动上,这辆Roadster倒置停放在坡道上。(特斯拉/路透社)The Roadster seen upside down on a ramp during Thursday's event. (Tesla/Reuters)

当马斯克以新款Roadster的原始亮相让所有人惊讶时,我就在现场——那是一次“再加一项”环节,正值特斯拉急需一些史蒂夫·乔布斯式的魔法之时。当时,特斯拉正艰难地提升其赌上公司未来的轿车——Model 3的产量,并亟需一个关于未来方向的愿景。

I was there when Musk surprised everyone with the new Roadster’s original reveal—a “one more thing” moment at a time when Tesla needed some Steve Jobs magic. Tesla was struggling to ramp production of its bet-the-company sedan, the Model 3, and in need of a vision for where things were going.

那辆线条流畅的Roadster——以及承诺实现当时看来似乎违背物理定律的0到60英里/小时加速时间——做到了这一点,甚至更多。该凸显了即使特斯拉在追求让每个人都能负担得起的电动汽车时,它仍然具备提供高端车型的能力。

The slicked-curved Roadster—and promises of hitting a 0-to-60 time that then seemed to defy physics—did that and more. The event underscored that even as Tesla pursued affordable EVs for everyone, it still had the chops to offer high-end ones, too.

5万美元,兴奋的客户就可以进入该车型的预订名单,该车型原本计划在2020年交付,但从未实现。这些定金在特斯拉急需资金时帮助筹集了资金,并激发了投资者对公司未来发展的憧憬。

For $50,000, excited customers could be on the list for the vehicle, which was supposed to arrive in 2020 and never did. Those deposits helped raise cash when Tesla desperately needed it and fueled investors’ dreams of what the company would become.

但就在特斯拉从那时起发展成为全球最有价值的汽车制造商期间,发生了一件意外的事情。中国自身的汽车工业蓬勃发展,受到马斯克对电动汽车愿景成功的启发。

But between then and Tesla turning into the world’s most valuable automaker something unexpected occurred. China’s own automotive industry took off, inspired by the success of Musk’s vision for the electrified automobile.

在该领域占据主导地位成为了一项国家使命——不仅因为它确保了就业,还因为中国的双用途工业框架旨在同时服务于民用和军用目的。事实证明,在电动汽车竞赛中获胜——积累电子和电池技术——也将对国防技术军备竞赛有所裨益。

Dominating that field became a national mission—not just for the jobs it ensured but for China’s dual-use industrial framework that aims to serve both civilian and military purposes. It turns out, winning in the electric-car race—building up the electronics and battery know-how—would also be useful in the defense-tech arms race.

据邓恩称,中国的汽车工业从政府支持中获益良多,包括低成本贷款、免费土地、廉价能源和劳动力培训。其结果是:一个建立起规模的工业机器,如今正威胁着吞噬西方。

China’s auto industry benefited greatly from government-backed support, according to Dunne: low-cost loans, free land, cheap energy and labor training.

欧洲的混乱局面正让美国高管们提前看到,如果中国能够找到进入美国市场的方式,未来可能会发生什么。据咨询公司AlixPartners的一份新报告,中国制造的电动汽车生产成本比欧洲同类车型低约11,000美元。

The results? An industrial machine that built up scale and is now threatening to eat the West.

曾有一段时间,正是马斯克让美国汽车高管们感到头疼。这是因为特斯拉在制造汽车方面具有成本优势,而且他经常吹嘘自己有计划进一步降低成本。

The chaos in Europe is giving U.S. executives a sneak peek of things to come if China can figure out a way into the American market. A Chinese-made EV costs about $11,000 less to produce than a European equivalent, according to a new report by consulting firm AlixPartners.

埃隆·马斯克在2017年发布Roadster 2。(供图/路透社)Elon Musk unveils the Roadster 2 in 2017. (HANDOUT/Reuters)

但在2024年初,情况发生了变化。马斯克似乎意识到了一个新的现实。

There was a time when it was Musk who was giving U.S. automotive executives heartburn. That was due to Tesla’s cost advantage when it came to making cars and his boasts about plans to reduce them further.

当时,马斯克曾表示中国汽车制造商是全球最具竞争力的。他在一次财报电话会议上说:“他们在中国之外将取得显著成功,这取决于建立何种关税或贸易壁垒。”他坦言:“我认为,如果没有建立贸易壁垒,他们几乎将在全球范围内击败大多数其他汽车公司。”他的言论最初被解读为他支持对华征税的信号,而他后来表示自己并未主张这一点。但此后,他对人工驾驶汽车的兴趣明显减弱。

In early 2024, something changed. Musk appeared to wake up to a new reality.

相反,他加倍押注于具身智能和专门打造的机器人汽车——即最近加入公司新兴机器人出租车车队的赛博Cab。几天前,特斯拉表示,在奥斯汀,德克萨斯州,其赛博Cab数量已在首月扩大至超过300辆。这与马斯克此前预测的特斯拉最终每年将至少生产两百万辆相去甚远。

Around then, Musk described Chinese carmakers as the most competitive in the world. “They will have significant success outside of China, depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established,” he said during an earnings call. “Frankly, I think if there aren’t trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”His comments were initially interpreted as a sign he supported tariffs against China, something he later said he wasn’t advocating. But, after that, his interest in human-driven cars clearly diminished.

周四,马斯克并未透露特斯拉实际将制造多少辆火箭汽车。真正重要的是为社交媒体制造热点而制作的视频片段,以及对未来可能发生的事情的幻想。

Instead, he doubled down on physical AI and a purpose-built robot car, the Cybercab that recently joined the company’s nascent robotaxi fleet. A few days ago, Tesla said it had scaled to more than 300 Cybercabs in Austin, Texas, in the first month. That’s a far cry from the at least two million annually that Musk has predicted Tesla will eventually build.

写信致Tim Higgins,邮箱:tim.higgins@wsj.com

On Thursday, Musk didn’t say how many rocket-cars Tesla will actually make. The only thing that really mattered was the video clips created to trend on social media and the dreams of what might come next.

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