新西兰元已连续五个季度下跌，如果分析师的预测正确，它可能正走向测试疫情时期的低点。
The New Zealand dollar has fallen for five straight quarters and if analysts are right, it may be on course to test a pandemic-era low.
ACCM Prime和Gaitame.com研究院有限公司表示，随着增长放缓削弱了快速加息的理由，新西兰元可能跌破2020年3月的低点54.7美分。即将到来的选举形势胶着，难以预测胜负，也可能对货币施加下行压力。
ACCM Prime and Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. say the kiwi could weaken past its March 2020 trough of 54.7 US cents as slowing growth undercuts the case for rapid interest-rate increases. Uncertainties stemming from an upcoming election that’s shaping up to be too close to call may also exert downward pressure on the currency.
新西兰元的命运很大程度上取决于本周的通胀报告，该报告将验证或否定对进一步加息的激进定价。互换交易员押注未来一年将有超过100个基点的紧缩，而央行的预测仅为40个基点。
Much of the kiwi’s fate rests on this week’s inflation report, which will either validate or negate the aggressive pricing for further rate hikes. Swap traders are betting on more than 100 basis points of tightening over the coming year versus 40 basis points in the central bank’s projection.
“新西兰元正处于非常紧张的境地，”ACCM墨尔本分公司研究总监Glenn Yin表示。“如果CPI数据不及预期，可能会剥离关键支撑层——预期的利率优势将面临风险，若RBNZ选择暂停加息，”这可能推动新西兰元跌破2020年的低点，他补充道。
“The kiwi is in a super tight spot,” said Glenn Yin, director of research at ACCM in Melbourne. “A CPI miss could strip away a critical layer of support — the expected interest-rate advantage is at risk should the RBNZ choose to pause,” which may push the New Zealand dollar past its 2020 low, he said.
新西兰元周五收盘报56.52美分，交易价位高于心理关口55美分。接下来的支撑位是54.86美分，即2025年4月的低点。
New Zealand’s currency ended at 56.52 US cents on Friday, trading above the psychological level of 55 cents. The next support lower is 54.86 cents, the April 2025 low.
央行基于模型的即时预测显示，新西兰的经济增长可能从前三个月的0.40%放缓至第四季度的0.12%。在此背景下，交易员将密切关注近几周是否出现价格压力开始缓解的迹象。
The central bank’s model-based nowcasts indicate that New Zealand’s economic growth may slow to 0.12% in the fourth quarter from 0.40% in the previous three months. Given this backdrop, traders will be on watch for any signs that price pressures have begun to ease in recent weeks.
彭博社调查的经济学家预测，第三季度年度消费者价格涨幅可能从前三个月的4.1%放缓至3.8%。该调查结果略低于RBNZ自身的3.9%估计。
Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast that annual consumer-price gains likely slowed to 3.8% in the third quarter from 4.1% in the previous three months. The survey is just below the RBNZ’s own estimate of 3.9%.
RBNZ首席经济学家Paul Conway上周表示，10月28日的利率决策“悬而未决”。所有这些因素正让交易员保持警惕，以防新西兰元进一步下跌。
The Oct. 28 rate decision is “wide open,” RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said last week. All this is putting traders on guard for further losses in the kiwi.
东京Gaitame.com的高级外汇分析师神田拓也表示，55水平正在提供支撑，但新西兰元存在跌破2020年3月低点的风险。周四的CPI报告“尤为重要”，可能有助于判断市场是否对新西兰联储的紧缩政策定价过高。
The 55 level is providing support, but the kiwi risks falling below its March 2020 low, said Takuya Kanda, senior foreign-exchange analyst at Gaitame.com in Tokyo. Thursday’s CPI report is “particularly important” and may help determine whether markets have priced in too much RBNZ tightening, he said.
新西兰11月7日的即将举行的选举也可能构成逆风，因为执政党国家党与反对党工党之间的激烈竞争提升了出现悬浮议会的可能性，这可能导致政策不确定性延续。本周的主要经济事件：
New Zealand’s upcoming election on Nov. 7 may also pose a headwind, as a tight race between the ruling National Party and opposition Labour Party raises the prospect of a hung parliament that could prolong policy uncertainty. This week’s main economic events: