新西兰第三季度通胀可能略有缓解，但这种喘息之机预计将是短暂的，因为货币走弱和油价飙升将推动今年最后三个月通胀加速，为加息提供理由。
New Zealand inflation likely eased slightly in the third quarter, but the respite is set to be short-lived as a weaker currency and surging oil prices drive an acceleration in the final three months of the year, building the case for rate hikes.
据彭博社对16位经济学家的中位数预估，周四发布的报告将显示，消费者价格指数第三季度同比上涨3.8%，低于第二季度的4.1%，也略低于新西兰储备银行在9月初货币政策声明中的预测。
A report Thursday will show the consumers price index rose 3.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 16 economists. That’s down from 4.1% in the second quarter and slightly less than the Reserve Bank projected in the early September monetary policy statement.
自新西兰储备银行行长安娜·布雷曼及其货币政策委员会同事在9月份文件中暗示可能暂停加息，以评估第三季度连续加息对经济复苏的影响以来，情况已发生很大变化。中东地区敌对行动重新爆发，推高全球燃料价格，使新西兰加油站油价超过4月的高点，而新西兰元较新西兰储备银行对第四季度假设的平均水平下跌了约4%。
A lot has changed since Governor Anna Breman and her Monetary Policy Committee colleagues hinted in that September document that they may pause to gauge how their back-to-back rate hikes in the third quarter would impact the economic recovery. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East have seen global fuel prices move higher, driving New Zealand pump prices above their April highs, while the New Zealand dollar is about 4% lower than the average level the RBNZ assumed for the fourth quarter.
当地经济学家现在预计，第四季度通胀将加速，可能高达4.7%。新西兰储备银行此前预测为3.9%。
Local economists now expect inflation will accelerate in the fourth quarter, potentially as high as 4.7%. The RBNZ projected 3.9%.
经济学家表示，这给新西兰储备银行带来压力，要求其在10月28日的下一次会议上将官方现金利率上调25个基点至3%。
That is building pressure on the RBNZ to respond by raising the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3% at its next meeting on Oct. 28, economists say.
“当世界变化时，你必须随之改变，”惠灵顿新西兰银行研究主管斯蒂芬·托普利斯说。“世界现在与新西兰储备银行预期的大不相同，因此它应该相应调整。”惠灵顿周一的互换数据显示，投资者对10月加息的定价已从上周初的56%上升至81%的可能性。数据显示，12月再次加息25个基点的可能性为二分之一。
“When the world changes you must change with it,” said Stephen Toplis, head of research at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “The world is now in a very different place to what the RBNZ had anticipated and so it should adjust accordingly.”Investor pricing of an October hike has lifted to an 81% chance from 56% at the start of last week, swaps data showed Monday in Wellington. There is a one-in-two likelihood of another quarter-point hike in December, the data show.
托普利斯预测，第四季度通胀将达到4.7%，这将使该指标升至三年高点，并超出新西兰储备银行1%至3%的目标区间，直至明年年底。
Toplis forecasts fourth-quarter inflation will hit 4.7%, which would take the measure to a three-year high and outside the RBNZ’s 1-3% target until late next year.
ASB银行代理首席经济学家金·蒙迪表示，上周的月度数据显示，价格压力呈广泛性，可能比预期更具持续性。ASB预测，通胀将在第四季度升至4.5%，且要到2027年底才会降至3%以下。
Monthly data for September last week indicated price pressures are broad based and may be more persistent than expected, said ASB Bank acting chief economist Kim Mundy. ASB forecasts inflation will accelerate to 4.5% in the fourth quarter and won’t drop below 3% until late 2027.
“上周的数据使我们对‘闲置产能加上中性的官方现金利率足以使通胀可持续地回归至目标区间2%的中点’这一论点的信心减弱，”她说。“我们预计到年底将有两次25个基点的加息，但风险倾向于官方现金利率在2027年推高至3.25%以上。”
“Last week’s data made us less confident in the argument that spare capacity, alongside a neutral OCR, will be enough to return inflation sustainably to the 2% midpoint of the target,” she said. “We expect two 25 basis point hikes by year end, but risks are skewed to the OCR pushing above 3.25% in 2027.”
新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）计划在12月之前不发布新的通胀预测，但上周其首席经济学家保罗·康韦告诉彭博社，由于油价和汇率因素，其第四季度的通胀前景存在上行风险。他补充说，利率走向“最可能是上升的”，但表示10月的决策仍然“悬而未决”。“我们希望保留零加息或25个基点加息的选项，我认为我们已经把这个选项摆在了桌面上，”他说。
The RBNZ isn’t scheduled to publish fresh inflation forecasts until December but Chief Economist Paul Conway told Bloomberg last week that there was upside risk to its fourth-quarter outlook because of oil prices and the currency. He added the direction for interest rates “is most likely up” but said the October decision remains “wide open.”“We wanted to have the option of doing a zero or a 25, and I think we’ve got that on the table,” he said.
托普利斯表示，除非政策制定者提前行动，否则中期价格压力存在风险。
Toplis said there is a risk to medium-term price pressure unless policymakers react early.
“我们认为，RBNZ不仅需要在10月份提升其官方现金利率，还应发出进一步紧缩的信号，”他说。如果货币政策委员会（MPC）表现出像9月份那样对加息持犹豫态度，“将通胀恢复至2%’将变得越来越困难，”他说。
“We believe the RBNZ will not only need to raise its cash rate in October but should also signal there is more to come,” he said. Returning inflation to 2% “will become increasingly difficult if the MPC displays the sort of reticence to raise rates that it did in September,” he said.