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华尔街日报

胡塞武装袭击暴露沙特阿拉伯的军事局限性Saudi Arabia’s Military Limitations Are Being Exposed by Houthi Attacks

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沙特部队在2023年守卫红海附近吉达的一艘军舰。(Amr Nabil/AP)Saudi forces guarding a military ship on the Red Sea near Jeddah in 2023. (Amr Nabil/AP)

胡塞武装对沙特首都及其石油基础设施发动的致命导弹和无人机袭击,暴露了该国武装力量的局限性,并为利雅得在也门战争中引入了一个风险新阶段。

Deadly missile and drone attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia’s capital and oil infrastructure have exposed the limitations of the kingdom’s armed forces and triggered a risky new phase of the war in Yemen for Riyadh.

沙特拥有世界上最大的国防预算之一,其武装力量配备了来自美国及其他供应商的先进战斗机和防空系统。但分析人士表示,胡塞武装已被证明是一个特别顽强的对手,其充足的地面部队和本土导弹与无人机生产能力,能够有效抵消沙特的军事优势。

Saudi Arabia has one of the largest defense budgets in the world, and its armed forces are equipped with advanced fighters and air-defense systems from the U.S. and other suppliers. But the Houthis have proved an especially resilient foe whose plentiful ground forces and indigenous missile and drone production can effectively counter Saudi military strengths, analysts said.

沙特依赖效忠于利雅得支持的也门政府的分裂民兵进行地面作战,而沙特战斗机和攻击直升机提供空中支援。沙特的防空行动受到拦截导弹短缺的制约,这些拦截导弹对于击落来袭的胡塞导弹至关重要,此外,包括美国在内的关键沙特盟友不愿提供直接军事援助,也使其举步维艰。

The Saudis rely on fractious militias loyal to the Riyadh-backed Yemeni government to wage the ground fight, while Saudi fighters and attack helicopters provide air support. The Saudi air-defense effort is hamstrung by a shortage of interceptors critical for shooting down incoming Houthi missiles, along with a reluctance of key Saudi allies, including the U.S., to provide direct military assistance.

《华尔街日报》报道称,伊朗已帮助胡塞武装对沙特领土及其也门盟友发动复杂攻击,包括提供针对无人机和导弹袭击的目标协助,以及培训、情报和战术指导。

Iran has helped the Houthis mount sophisticated attacks on Saudi territory and on its Yemeni allies, including by providing assistance targeting drone and missile attacks, as well as training, intelligence and tactical guidance, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

迄今为止,美国仅将其对沙特盟友的援助限定在情报和其他支持方面。特朗普总统周五敦促沙特接受以色列针对胡塞武装的军事援助。利雅得与以色列拥有广泛的幕后安全关系,但没有正式外交关系,尚未公开回应他的建议。

The U.S. has so far confined its assistance to its Saudi ally to intelligence and other support. President Trump on Friday urged Saudi Arabia to accept military help from Israel against the Houthis. Riyadh, which has an extensive behind-the-scenes security relationship with Israel but no formal diplomatic ties, hasn’t publicly responded to his suggestion.

2023年7月,胡塞武装在也门萨那动员战斗人员。(Yahya Arhab/EPA/Shutterstock)Houthis mobilizing fighters in July in San’a, Yemen. (Yahya Arhab/EPA/Shutterstock)

相反,利雅得已转向土耳其、巴基斯坦及多个欧洲国家寻求帮助,以部署防空部队和其他军事援助到该国,以抵御胡塞袭击。周日,埃及表示已准备好提供军事援助,此消息来自总统阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西发言人的一份声明。

Instead, Riyadh has turned to Turkey, Pakistan and several European countries for help fending off Houthi attacks with air-defense units and other military assistance deployed to the kingdom. On Sunday, Egypt said it was prepared to provide military help, according to a statement by President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi’s spokesman.

一位沙特官员在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示:“沙特阿拉伯王国将采取一切必要措施,确保本国公民和居民的安全以及领土的安宁。”他补充说,胡塞武装“构成了全球性的威胁,需要全球性的应对措施”。沙特方面也在寻求招募外国战斗人员来协助其也门盟友。同时,熟悉沙特战略的人士表示,沙特仍愿意通过外交途径解决这场冲突——尽管目前看来这一冲突难以控制。

A Saudi official, in a statement to The Wall Street Journal, said: “The kingdom of Saudi Arabia will take all necessary measures to ensure that its citizens and residents are safe and its territory is secure.”The Houthis, he added, “represent a global threat and require a global response.”The kingdom is also looking to recruit foreign fighters to help its Yemeni allies. At the same time, it is also open to a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which otherwise looks hard to contain, people familiar with the Saudi strategy have said.

“他们确实需要外界的支持,以阻止这些灾难性的袭击,”战略与国际研究中心的高级研究员、前美国也门问题特使助理艾莉森·迈纳(Allison Minor)说道。“除此之外,他们还想表明自己在这场冲突中并非孤立无援。”正如美国在对抗实力看似远超自己的伊朗时遇到了困难一样,胡塞武装也建立了移动式导弹发射装置,并将导弹生产设施深埋地下,从而成功抵御了来自沙特的空中袭击。

“They definitely want support to help prevent these catastrophic attacks,” said Allison Minor, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former U.S. deputy special envoy for Yemen. “Beyond that, they are looking to demonstrate that they are not isolated in this conflict.”Just as the U.S. has struggled to defeat a seemingly overmatched Iran, the Houthis have built a fleet of mobile missile launchers and deeply buried missile-production facilities that it has used to withstand airstrikes from its much larger neighbor.

分析人士指出,得到伊朗支持的胡塞武装很可能能够承受沙特领导的联军发动的攻击,同时继续对沙特境内防御薄弱的 targets 发动打击。

The Iran-backed Houthis are likely to be able to absorb attacks from the Saudi-led coalition fighting them, while continuing to deliver blows deep in Saudi territory against softly defended targets, analysts said.

沙特当局周日宣布,一枚敌方发射的导弹击中了南部城市纳杰兰,造成6人受伤;此次袭击还损坏了3栋房屋和3辆车辆。这一事件发生在胡塞武装袭击沙特首都国际机场一周之后——那次袭击导致至少13人死亡、数百人受伤。这是与伊朗战争相关的冲突中,针对美国或其海湾盟友的最致命的一次袭击。次日,胡塞武装再次袭击该机场,导致另一名旅客死亡、11人受伤。

Saudi authorities said Sunday that a hostile projectile struck the southern city of Najran, injuring six. The incident also damaged three homes and three vehicles. That attack came a week after a Houthi strike on the Saudi capital’s international airport killed at least 13 people and injured hundreds. It was the single deadliest attack on the U.S. or its Gulf allies in the conflicts related to the Iran war. Another strike on the airport the following day killed another traveler and wounded 11.

社交媒体图片显示,本月胡塞武装袭击后的沙特国王哈立德国际机场。(Reuters)An image from social media shows Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport after a Houthi attack this month. (Reuters)

在近期胡塞武装导弹和无人机袭击激增之前,沙特领导人更担心的是来自波斯湾对岸的打击。华尔街日报报道,沙特一直在努力防御伊朗以及其支持的伊拉克民兵对这片广阔国土的攻击,并不断调动防空电池,以试图保护宫殿和能源基础设施。

Before the recent surge in Houthi missile and drone attacks, Saudi leaders were more concerned about strikes from across the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia struggled to cover the vast country against attacks from Iran and the Iraqi militias Tehran backs, shifting air-defense batteries around to try to protect palaces and energy infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

随着伊朗冲突可能在下个月美国中期选举后重新爆发的威胁,沙特领导人面临多线作战的前景,分析人士表示,这使他们更迫切需要迅速遏制与胡塞武装的战争。

With the threat that the Iran conflict could resume after the U.S. midterm elections next month, Saudi leaders are facing the prospect of a multifront conflict, putting them under even more pressure to quickly tamp down the war with the Houthis, analysts said.

“迟早他们必须找到一个出口,因为胡塞武装具备足够的机动性和能力,以非对称方式作出回应,可能造成严重破坏,”前美国驻沙特大使、战略与国际研究中心高级顾问迈克尔·拉特尼说。

“At some point, they are going to have to find an off-ramp, because the Houthis have this resourcefulness and capacity to respond asymmetrically in a way that can do serious damage,” said Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

去年,美国发动的空袭旨在打开红海入口处狭窄的曼德海峡,以削弱胡塞武装的控制力,但胡塞武装仍然存活下来。此后,沙特主导的联军在七年内试图驱逐该组织——美国已将其列为恐怖组织——但在该组织夺取也门首都萨那以及西北部大片地区后,联军未能成功。

The Houthis survived a campaign of U.S. airstrikes last year that sought to unlock their grip on the narrow Bab al-Mandeb strait at the entrance to the Red Sea. They also outlasted a Saudi-led coalition that fought for seven years to dislodge the group—a U.S.-designated terrorist organization—after it seized Yemen’s capital San’a and a swath of northwestern Yemen in a civil war.

沙特主导的联军的直接目标是将胡塞武装从红海沿岸地区驱逐出去,这些地区使其能够在曼德海峡威胁沙特航运,并防止塔伊兹——反胡塞武装在也门南部最后的主要城市据点——沦陷。

The Saudi-led coalition’s immediate objective is to dislodge the Houthis from coastal areas along the Red Sea that have allowed them to threaten Saudi shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb strait and to prevent the fall of Taiz, the anti-Houthi forces’ last major urban stronghold in southern Yemen.

沙特军方近日加大了对胡塞武装的反攻力度,向也门叛军控制区发动了多轮空袭,并加强防空,以期阻止新的跨境袭击,沙特官员称。

The Saudi military has pressed its counteroffensive against the Houthis in recent days, launching waves of airstrikes against rebel-held areas in Yemen and stiffening its air defenses in hopes of warding off new cross-border attacks, Saudi officials said.

“沙特武装部队拥有高度先进的作战系统以及强大的防空系统,这些系统能够拦截各种威胁,挫败针对沙特王国的攻击企图,从而保护该国的主权、安全、资源、圣地以及公民和居民的安全,”沙特领导的联军发言人图尔基·阿尔-马利基少将在周四于利雅得举行的新闻发布会上表示。

“The Saudi armed forces possess highly advanced combat systems and a highly capable air-defense system that can intercept threats and thwart targeting attempts to protect the kingdom’s sovereignty, security, resources, holy sites, citizens and residents,” Maj. Gen. Turki Al-Maliki, a spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition, said during a press conference Thursday in Riyadh.

沙特与也门之间有一条长达800英里的崎岖山区边界,这为胡塞武装提供了充足的掩护,使他们能够发动攻击并迅速转移阵地。

The kingdom shares a rugged, mountainous, 800-mile border with Yemen, giving Houthi mobile launchers ample cover to fire and quickly relocate.

据一位了解沙特防御措施的美国高级官员透露,沙特军队已经成功拦截了90%以上由胡塞武装发射的导弹;这些导弹的目标是那些由美国制造的“爱国者”反导系统及其他防空系统所防护的区域。不过,该官员指出,自战争重新爆发以来,超过一半的胡塞武装袭击都针对了未设防的目标。

Saudi forces have successfully intercepted more than 90% of the Houthi missiles targeting areas protected by its U.S.-built Patriot antimissile systems and other air-defense systems, according to a senior U.S. official briefed on the Saudi effort. But over half of the Houthi attacks since the war resumed have been against undefended locations, the official said.

沙特麦加圣地附近部署的防空系统。(Saudi Press Agency/APA Images/ZUMA Press)Air-defense systems deployed near holy sites in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. (Saudi Press Agency/APA Images/ZUMA Press)

此外,胡塞武装还使用无人机以及低空飞行的巡航导弹发动攻击;他们同时发射多枚巡航导弹和弹道导弹,试图突破沙特的防御体系。分析人士指出,在本月机场遭袭后的几天里,沙特防空系统确实拦截了一枚巡航导弹,并在东部省份击落了一架无人机,同时还拦截了一枚朝向沙特西南部城市哈米斯穆沙伊特发射的弹道导弹。

The Houthis have also attacked protected areas using drones and low-flying cruise missiles launched in waves along with ballistic missiles to overwhelm Saudi defenses, the official said.

分析人士认为,在也门战争初期,沙特军队就已经成功抵御了此类攻击浪潮,并且随着时间的推移逐渐削弱了胡塞武装的攻击能力。不过,这位官员强调:“要完全抵御所有攻击几乎是不可能的,尤其是对于像沙特阿拉伯这样的军队来说。有时,那些突破防御的攻击可能会造成灾难性后果。”沙特的关键基础设施(如民用机场和沙特阿美石油设施)分布在广阔且人口稀少的沙漠地区;要利用固定的导弹发射装置同时保护所有潜在目标,在后勤上根本是不现实的。

In the days following the airport attacks this month, Saudi officials said air defenses had intercepted a cruise missile and shot down a drone in the country’s Eastern Province as well as a ballistic missile launched toward the city of Khamis Mushait in southwest Saudi Arabia. Saudi forces have withstood such waves of attacks in the earlier phases of the Yemen war and even managed to curtail them over time, analysts said.

“归根结底,他们导弹不够,而且因为北部遭到伊拉克的袭击、东部遭到伊朗的袭击,现在南部又遭到袭击,他们不得不分散防空资产,”前五角大楼阿拉伯事务官员大卫·德斯罗奇斯(David Des Roches)说。

But “it’s very hard to defend against all attacks, and that is the case with militaries like Saudi Arabia’s,” said Minor. “Sometimes what gets through can be catastrophic.”Its vital infrastructure, civilian airports, and Saudi Aramco oil facilities are scattered across vast, sparsely populated deserts. Guarding every potential target simultaneously with fixed missile batteries is logistically impossible.

请写信给大卫·S·克劳德(David S. Cloud),电子邮箱:david.cloud@wsj.com

“What it comes down to is they just don’t have enough missiles, and because they have been attacked from Iraq in the north, from Iran in the east and now from the south, they have to divide their air-defense assets,” said David Des Roches, a former Pentagon official for Arabian affairs.

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