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亚洲股市下滑,华尔街与债市因油价下跌而受益Asian stocks slip, Wall St and bonds benefit from oil skid

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2023年8月18日,中国香港,交易所广场外,公牛雕像被放置在显示恒生股指和股价的屏幕前。(照片:路透社/泰隆·萧)Bull statues are placed in font of screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, on Aug 18, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Tyrone Siu)

悉尼消息:10月19日周一,亚洲股市小幅下跌。市场对人工智能领域巨额资金需求的担忧削弱了投资者信心,而本周恰逢多家企业发布财报。不过中国公布的经济数据好于预期,这对全球经济增长是个利好。

SYDNEY: Asian share markets slipped on Monday (Oct 19) as unease over AI's enormous funding needs undermined confidence ahead of a week packed with earnings, while Chinese economic data pipped forecasts in a positive for world growth.

油价下跌为债券及华尔街股指期货提供了一定支撑,从而限制了亚洲股市的跌幅。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普决定豁免对俄罗斯的部分制裁措施,受此影响油价有所下跌;不过他随后又表示尚未就此事作出最终决定。

A fall in oil prices offered some support to bonds and Wall Street stock futures, limiting Asia's losses. Oil fell following US President Donald Trump's decision to waive some sanctions on Russia, though he later said a final decision on the matter had not been made.

美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周六称,总统将用最多60天时间来评估这一举措的经济影响。布伦特原油期货价格仍下跌1.7%,至每桶107.95美元;美国原油期货价格则下跌0.8%,至每桶100.62美元。

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that the president would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of such a move. Brent futures still fell 1.7 per cent to US$107.95 a barrel, while US crude futures lost 0.8 per cent to US$100.62 a barrel.

与此同时,伊朗方面报告称,又有一艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡触雷受损。

Meanwhile, Iran reported another tanker had hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

地缘政治局势紧张,加之资金从股市流向避险资产,推动国债价格持续上涨。10年期美国国债收益率下降4个基点,至5.0525%,该收益率刚刚创下八个多月以来的最大单周跌幅。

Geopolitical tensions combined with safe-haven flows from equities to extend a rally in sovereign bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields down 4 basis points at 5.0525 per cent, having just recorded their largest weekly fall in over eight months.

受上述因素推动,标准普尔500指数期货上涨0.7%,纳斯达克指数期货则上涨1.0%。

All of this helped S&P 500 futures edge up 0.7 per cent, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.0 per cent.

科技行业面临的担忧情绪拖累了亚洲股市表现。日本日经指数下跌1.2%,该指数上周已累计下跌5.4%。韩国股市下跌0.4%,此前一周该指数跌幅超过14%;中国台湾股市则下跌1.4%。

Asian markets were hampered by concerns about tech and Japan's Nikkei fell 1.2 per cent, after losing 5.4 per cent last week. South Korea dropped 0.4 per cent, having shed more than 14 per cent last week, while Taiwan fell 1.4 per cent.

MSCI编制的日本以外亚太地区股票综合指数小幅下跌0.6%。

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.6 per cent.

资产管理公司AMP的经济学家梅·布伊指出:“投资者长期担忧的是,人工智能领域的营收难以覆盖前期巨额投入;此外,随着相关基础设施逐渐老化贬值,其账面价值也会大幅缩水。”

"Investors have long worried that AI revenues won't be sufficient to recoup the massive upfront investment, while AI infrastructure may need to be written down as it ages and depreciates in the meantime, which lowers book value massively," said My Bui, an economist at fund manager AMP.

政府债券收益率上升和企业信用利差扩大,正在推高融资成本,使得借款、再融资以及推进人工智能基础设施建设变得更加困难。中国蓝筹股下跌0.2%,但数据显示第三季度经济增长4.5%,略好于预期,早盘跌幅有所收窄。零售销售也表现更好,上涨1.1%,而工业产出增长符合预期,为5.5%。

"Rising government bond yields and wider corporate credit spreads are increasing financing costs, making it harder to borrow, refinance, and keep the AI infrastructure build-out going." Chinese blue chips dipped 0.2 per cent, but pared early losses after data showed the economy grew 4.5 per cent in the third quarter to just pip forecasts. Retail sales were also better with a rise of 1.1 per cent, while industrial output growth came in on forecasts at 5.5 per cent.

中国人民币也升至自2022年7月以来的最强水平,报6.6828。

China's yuan also firmed to its strongest level since July 2022 at 6.6828.

业绩至关重要 费城半导体指数上周下跌11.4%,创下自2008年以来的最长连跌纪录。

A LOT RIDING ON EARNINGS The PHLX Semiconductor Index shed 11.4 per cent last week in its longest losing streak since 2008.

投资者希望Meta在周三公布业绩时能够超越华尔街预期,届时半导体公司Lam Research和德州仪器,以及埃隆·马斯克领导的SpaceX和特斯拉也将公布业绩。

Investors will be hoping Meta will beat Wall Street forecasts when it reports earnings on Wednesday, along with semiconductor firms Lam Research and Texas Instruments and Elon Musk-led companies SpaceX and Tesla .

据高盛称,Meta是五家人工智能超大规模云服务商之一,这五家公司合计明年预计将资本支出增加至约1.2万亿美元。

Meta is one of five AI hyperscalers that combined are expected to increase their capital spending to about US$1.2 trillion next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

其他将公布业绩的公司还包括Netflix、宝洁、通用汽车和GE航空。

Others reporting include Netflix, Procter & Gamble , General Motors and GE Aerospace.

总体而言,业绩仍预计增长30%,这要归功于科技公司赚取的巨额利润。

Earnings are still expected to rise 30 per cent overall thanks to the huge profits made by tech firms.

欧洲股市受法国政治不确定性拖累,欧元区STOXX 50期货下跌0.3%,DAX期货下跌0.2%,富时期货下跌0.1%。

European stocks were weighed down by political uncertainty in France with EUROSTOXX 50 futures off 0.3 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.2 per cent and FTSE futures eased 0.1 per cent.

同样的担忧导致欧元下跌0.1%,至1.1232美元,接近上周16个月低点1.1113美元。

Those same concerns saw the euro ease 0.1 per cent to US$1.1232, nearer to last week's 16-month low of US$1.1113.

美元兑日元下跌0.1%,至157.89,本月迄今一直在窄幅区间内波动,因为日本干预的威胁让投机性卖方望而却步。

The dollar dipped 0.1 per cent against the yen to 157.89 and has spent the entire month so far in a tight range as the threat of Japanese intervention has kept speculative sellers at bay.

在大宗商品市场,不产生利息的黄金因收益率下降而获得提振,上涨0.4%,至每盎司4181美元。

In commodity markets, non-interest-bearing gold got a lift from falling yields and rose 0.4 per cent to US$4,181 an ounce.

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