在普遍国会选票上领先8个百分点 — — 这是他们本轮选举中最高的领先幅度之一 — — 民主党很可能正处于一场大规模波动选举的边缘。
With an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — among their highest of the cycle — Democrats could well be on the cusp of a major wave election.
我们之所以这样说，是基于历史趋势和当前的政治氛围。2018年此时，也就是上一次蓝色浪潮的时候，民主党在普遍国会选票上的领先幅度大约为7个百分点，随后他们赢得了41个众议院席位。
We say this based on historical trends and the current political mood. At this point in 2018, the last blue wave, Democrats led the generic ballot by roughly 7 points before gaining 41 House seats.
此外，总统所属政党在中期选举中失去席位在美国政治中几乎已成为定律：自罗斯福政府以来，除了三次选举外，所有其他中期选举都出现了这种情况。
Moreover, the president’s party losing seats in midterms is essentially law in American politics: It has happened in all but three elections since the Roosevelt administration.
福克斯新闻权力排名：对于民主党来说，事情可能出错的地方在哪里？
从1934年到2018年，总统所属政党在众议院平均失去28个席位，在参议院平均失去4个席位；而在过去五次中期选举中，总统所属政党的平均净损失为31个众议院席位。
From 1934 through 2018, the president’s party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats, and over the past five midterms, the average net loss for the president’s party has been 31 House seats.
需要明确的是，共和党可能由于多个关键原因而追回失地：民主党在意识形态上仍然分裂，缺乏明确的信息和身份认同，除了反对特朗普总统之外几乎没有其他主旨；而共和党则拥有相当大的资金优势。
To be clear, Republicans could make up ground for a number of critical reasons: Democrats remain divided ideologically, lack a message and an identity other than being anti-President Trump, and Republicans have a considerable cash advantage.
民主党看到翻转红州的新机遇 — — 但4亿美元的共和党支出优势可能会打乱他们的计划。话虽如此，从大多数指标来看，民主党在众议院占据上风，并在参议院拥有真正的机会。
DEMOCRATS SEE NEW CHANCES TO FLIP RED STATES — BUT A $400M GOP SPENDING ADVANTAGE COULD DERAIL THEIR PLANS That being said, by most measures, Democrats have the upper hand in the House and a genuine opportunity in the Senate.
最近的民意调查显示，民主党在几个关键参议院战场州具有优势 — — 这足以让原本被认为对共和党有利的参议院格局变得充满变数。民主党在参议院已处于可争夺范围之内，但尚不应过早庆祝。
Recent polling suggests Democratic strength in several key Senate battlegrounds — enough to put the upper chamber in play in what was supposed to be a GOP-friendly map.
在北卡罗来纳州，民主党人罗伊·库珀在民意调查平均值中领先共和党人迈克尔·惠特利近10个百分点。
In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by nearly 10 points in the polling average.
在密歇根州，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德以微弱的3个百分点领先于共和党人迈克·罗杰斯，而罗杰斯在春季和夏季部分时期曾领先，当时共和党人一直在强调埃尔-萨耶德的社会主义倾向、有争议的言论以及他与左翼影响者哈桑·派克的关联。
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow 3-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, who had led during the spring and part of the summer as Republicans emphasized El-Sayed’s socialist lean, controversial statements, and his association with far-left influencer Hasan Piker.
埃尔赛德对奥巴马的尖锐批评在联合竞选集会前夕再次浮出水面。在缅因州，民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊对共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯略占优势，尽管根据RealClearPolitics的评估，这场竞争实际上仍是势均力敌的局面。
In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson holds a slight edge over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, although the race remains effectively a toss-up per RealClearPolitics.
仅凭这三个州的胜利无法让民主党掌握参议院控制权。他们需要净增四个席位。
Victories in those three states alone would not give Democrats control of the Senate.
舒默警告共和党的优势可能改变参议院控制权的争夺。对共和党而言，更深层的问题是民主党已经扩大了竞争版图。
They need a net gain of four seats. The deeper problem for Republicans is that Democrats have expanded the map.
在得克萨斯州——该州自1994年以来尚未在全州范围内选出民主党人——詹姆斯·塔拉利科领先于共和党州检察长肯·帕克斯顿——即特朗普总统的首选候选人——大约3个百分点。
In Texas, which has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton — President Trump’s preferred candidate — by roughly 3 points.
福克斯新闻民调：塔拉利科与帕克斯顿在得州参议院选举中展开孤星州对决。其他传统上可靠的共和党州，包括爱荷华州、南卡罗来纳州、阿拉斯加州，甚至堪萨斯州——该州已有九十年未选出民主党参议员——的竞选也显示，民主党候选人的竞争力远超预期。
Races in other reliably Republican states, including Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska, and even Kansas — which has not elected a Democratic senator in nine decades — also show Democratic candidates running far more competitively than expected.
这些民调大多仍在误差范围内。但这对共和党而言几乎没有安慰价值：这些竞争之所以胶着，恰恰反映出目前全国性环境正在倾向民主党。这并不意味着预测民主党将赢得全部甚至大多数这些竞选。
Most of these polls remain within the margin of error. But that should offer Republicans little comfort: The fact that these races are close at all reflects a national environment currently favoring Democrats.
中期选举前，一个意外的参议院竞选成为共和党的头痛问题。在北卡罗来纳州之外，他们的领先优势基本持平，且民调在最近几次选举中一直低估了共和党的支持度。
That is not to predict that Democrats will win all, or even most, of these contests. Outside North Carolina, their leads are essentially ties, and polling has underestimated Republican support in several recent elections.
此外，通用投票率也不能机械地应用于单个参议院选举或众议院选区，特别是自2018年以来，竞争性选区的数量急剧下降。
The generic ballot also cannot be applied mechanically to an individual Senate race or House district, particularly when the number of competitive districts has declined sharply since 2018.
目前，《库克政治报告》将21个众议院选区列为势均力敌，另外21个则倾向于某一党或另一党。而在2018年，有75个选区被视为具有竞争力——这一下降是由重新划区和日益加剧的政治两极分化所驱动的。
The Cook Political Report currently rates 21 House races as toss-ups and another 21 as leaning toward one party or the other. In 2018, 75 races were considered competitive — a decline driven by redistricting and growing political polarization.
即使存在这些限制，民主党在传统共和党领地的竞争力本身也具有重要意义。
Even with those caveats, Democratic competitiveness in traditionally Republican territory is significant in its own right.
民主党认为蓝色浪潮正在形成。以下是可能阻止它的三股力量。这反映了选民对经济状况的深刻不满。在福克斯新闻的民意调查中，近四倍的美国人表示他们在财务上落后，而表示他们在财务上领先的人数只有12%，比例为44%对12%。
It reflects voters’ deep frustration with the state of the economy. In Fox News polling, nearly four times as many Americans said they were falling behind financially as said they were getting ahead, 44% to 12%.
福克斯还发现，55%的人认为民主党在处理通胀方面会做得更好，而选择共和党的只有40%。
Fox also found that 55% believed Democrats would do a better job handling inflation, compared with 40% who chose Republicans.
与此同时，特朗普总统的批准率低于40%——这是另一个警告信号。
President Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, is below 40% — another warning sign.
低总统批准率往往会导致惨痛的中期选举。2010年，当时奥巴马总统的批准率仍然疲软，为44%，民主党失去了63个众议院席位和六个参议院席位。然而，共和党仍然保持重要优势。
Low presidential approval has often produced punishing midterms. In 2010, when President Barack Obama’s approval stood at a still-weak 44%, Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. Nevertheless, Republicans retain important advantages.
他们才刚刚开始动用其巨大的资金优势。民主党的品牌薄弱——这一弱点因社会主义者和极左翼影响力的增长而加剧——可能会疏远中间派选民，共和党正在提出这一论点。
They have only just begun deploying their substantial cash advantage. The Democratic Party’s weak brand — exacerbated by the growing influence of socialists and the far left — could alienate moderate voters, an argument Republicans are now making.
此外，民主党的平均批准率为40%，其不受欢迎程度几乎与特朗普相当。
Further, with an average approval rating of 40%, the Democratic Party is virtually as unpopular as Trump.
还有一种可能是，投票倾向较低的共和党选民会听从特朗普的号召，表现得好像他就在选票上一样，并前去投票。如果他们这样做，选举结果可能会与今天的民意调查截然不同。
It is also possible that lower-propensity Republican voters heed Trump’s call to behave as if he were on the ballot and turn out. If they do, the election results could look markedly different from today’s polling.
最终，无论是历史还是当前数据都对民主党有利。他们很可能赢得众议院，并且有超过一半的机会夺回参议院。他们在本来难以触及的州具有竞争力，并在核心战场上表现强劲。
Ultimately, both history and current data favor Democrats. They are likely to win the House and have a better-than-even chance of capturing the Senate. They are competitive in states that would ordinarily be out of reach and are running strongly across the core battlegrounds.
但随着仅剩三周时间，民主党的全面胜利远非板上钉钉的事情。共和党仍然拥有结构性优势，以及特朗普动员其基本盘的无与伦比的能力。竞选的方向很明确；但结果的规模尚不确定。
But with three weeks remaining, a Democratic sweep is far from a foregone conclusion. Republicans still have structural advantages and Trump’s unparalleled ability to mobilize his base. The direction of the race is clear; the scale of the outcome is not.