
随着民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫连胜的预期日益增长,佐治亚州参议院选举中的资金流正在减缓。
The money spigot is sputtering in Georgia's Senate race amid growing expectations that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff will win reelection.
参议院领导基金(Senate Leadership Fund),即共和党在参议院的顶级超级政治行动委员会,上周在佐治亚州没有在广播电视上投放广告——根据追踪公司AdImpact的数据,这是他们在该州选举中首次停播的一周。民主党参议院多数派政治行动委员会(Senate Majority PAC)也没有投放广告。
The Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, did not spend on broadcast television in the state last week — the first week they were off air in the race, according to tracking firm AdImpact. Neither did Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC.
参议院多数派政治行动委员会本周也将继续停播,该组织首先向《政客》(POLITICO)透露了这一消息,该组织与参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默关系密切。目前尚不清楚参议院领导基金是否会效仿。该组织拒绝就其在该州的未来支出计划发表评论。
Senate Majority PAC will also be dark again this week, the Chuck Schumer-aligned group shared first with POLITICO. It was not immediately clear whether SLF would follow suit. The group declined to comment on their future spending plans in the state.
支出放缓凸显了佐治亚州在参议院选举格局中的位置发生了怎样的戏剧性转变,因为奥索夫在民意调查和筹款方面持续保持对共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯的显著领先优势。佐治亚州原本被预计将成为本轮选举中最昂贵、最重要的战场之一——如今,一些最大的外部支出方正在撤资,并将注意力转向更具竞争力的红州地区赛事。
The spending slowdown underscores how dramatically Georgia’s place on the Senate map has shifted, as Ossoff maintains wide margins over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in public polling and fundraising. Georgia was expected to be one of the cycle’s most expensive and preeminent battlegrounds — now some of the biggest outside spenders are pulling back and turning their attention to more competitive races in redder territory.
在最近几周,两大参议院超级政治行动委员会的支出决策高度一致,且两者均未完全撤离佐治亚州。他们从技术层面上仍为本周以后保留了未来的广告预订,但这些预订不具约束力,使双方在评估参议院选举格局时拥有重新分配资金的灵活性。此外,距离选举日仅剩两周,佐治亚州的提前投票已经开始,目前尚不清楚双方是否还会在该州继续投放更多广告。
The two major Senate super PACs have closely mirrored each other’s spending decisions in recent weeks, with neither fully retreating from the state. They still both technically have future ad reservations booked past this week, but those are not binding, leaving both sides with the flexibility to redirect money as they assess the Senate map. And with two weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway in Georgia, it’s unclear whether either will spend any more in the state.
“全国共和党人正在抛弃迈克·柯林斯,因为他一直在向佐治亚人展示自己为何不可选且不适合担任公职。我们致力于看到乔恩·奥索夫在这场竞选的最后阶段取得胜利,”参议院多数派政治行动委员会发言人劳伦·弗伦奇(Lauren French)在一份声明中表示。
“National Republicans are abandoning Mike Collins as he continues to show Georgians why he’s unelectable and unfit for office. We are committed to seeing Jon Ossoff through to victory as we come to the final days of this campaign,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.
柯林斯的竞选团队在一份声明中表示:“我们感谢所有支持柯林斯议员的团体,并欢迎他们继续给予我们的支持。”声明中还提到:“随着提前投票的开始,柯林斯每天都在努力争取每一位乔治亚州选民的支持,因为乔恩·奥索夫是一个极端的左翼人士,他企图提高税收、降低民众的安全保障。柯林斯议员会继续坚持这一立场,直到选举日奥索夫为自己的行为负责。”柯林斯的发言人迈耶·西格弗里德(Meyer Siegfried)说道。奥索夫的竞选团队没有回应我们的评论请求。
Collins' campaign, in a statement, said they were "grateful to every group that's standing with Rep. Collins and welcome their continued support." "With early voting underway, he's working every day to earn the vote of every Georgian, because Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who wants to raise their taxes and make their families less safe. Rep. Collins will keep making that case until Ossoff is held accountable on Election Day," Collins spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said in a statement. Ossoff's campaign didn't respond to a request for comment.
据AdImpact报道,SMP曾在春季承诺为这场竞选活动投入2000万美元用于电视广告宣传,但截至周五为止,他们实际只花费或预留了1150万美元;SLF最初宣布将投入4400万美元,但目前也仅花费或预留了约2000万美元。
SMP had pledged in the spring to spend $20 million on television for the race, but as of Friday had only spent or reserved $11.5 million, per AdImpact. SLF had announced an initial $44 million investment, but has so far only spent or reserved roughly $20 million.
根据AdImpact的数据,隶属于唐纳德·特朗普总统的MAGA超级政治行动委员会(MAGA Super PAC)的“No Going Back PAC”在过去两周内也大幅削减了其在该竞选活动中的支出。
No Going Back PAC, which is affiliated with President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, has also dramatically scaled back its own spending on the race over the last two weeks, according to AdImpact.
共和党人士仍在密切关注乔治亚州的州长选举情况。最近的民意调查显示,共和党候选人里克·杰克逊(Rick Jackson)略微领先于民主党候选人基莎·兰斯·博顿斯(Keisha Lance Bottoms)。共和党人认为,杰克逊的优势可能会使参议院选举的竞争比目前预期的更加激烈。
Republican operatives are still monitoring Georgia’s governor’s race, where recent public polling shows GOP nominee Rick Jackson slightly ahead of Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Republicans believe Jackson’s strength could keep the Senate race closer than currently expected.
然而,他们对扭转乔治亚州参议院选局的前景越来越悲观,因为柯林斯在民调中的支持率落后于奥索夫,而且共和党的整体处境也日益艰难。SLF上周突然停止了广告宣传(此时距离选举仅剩不到两周时间),这引发了人们对于该组织最终还会在该州投入多少资金的疑问。
But they have grown increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of flipping Georgia’s Senate seat, as Collins trails Ossoff in the polls and the overall environment for the GOP continues to grow more difficult. SLF’s decision to go dark last week — so close to the election — raises questions about how much more the group will ultimately invest in the state.
一位熟悉SLF支出计划的人士对Politico表示:“舒默(Schumer)在乔治亚州每花费一美元,就意味着共和党在那些支持共和党的“红色州”(即共和党占优势的州)无法将更多资金用于竞选活动。共和党的资金优势不仅体现在更多的广告投放上,还迫使民主党人处于防守态势。”
"Every dollar Schumer spends in Georgia is one not spent on offense in red states. Republicans’ financial advantage doesn’t just show up in more ads, it keeps Dems on defense," a person familiar with SLF's spending plans told POLITICO.
奥索夫在筹款方面对柯林斯也具有巨大优势,截至10月1日,柯林斯手头现金仅略超过100万美元,这使得奥索夫在最后阶段即使在主要参议院超级政治行动委员会收回支出之前就已拥有雄厚的财政缓冲。
Ossoff also holds a massive fundraising advantage over Collins, who had just over $1 million cash on hand as of Oct. 1, giving Ossoff a major financial cushion in the final stretch even before the major Senate super PACs pulled back their spending.
共和党正在全国范围内对各场竞争进行分类处理:参议院领袖基金将资金从北卡罗来纳州转移出去——北卡罗来纳州一直是一个长期的摇摆州——同时将资源用于防御堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等州的共和党持有席位,因为这些州的参议院竞争变得日益激烈。
The GOP has been triaging races across the map: SLF shifted money out of North Carolina, another perennial battleground, while moving resources toward defending GOP-held seats in states like Kansas and South Carolina, where the Senate contests have become increasingly competitive.
尽管如此,即使进入佐治亚州的资金持续放缓,特朗普似乎仍在优先考虑这个长期的摇摆州。
Still, even as the money going into Georgia has continued to slow, Trump appears to be prioritizing the longtime battleground.
周五在达尔顿的一次集会上,他敦促选民“假装”他就在选票上,同时赞扬了柯林斯以及该州共和党州长候选人里克·杰克逊。梅雷迪思·李·希尔和安德鲁·霍华德对此有所贡献。
At a rally in Dalton on Friday, he urged voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, while praising Collins and the state’s GOP governor’s nominee, Rick Jackson. Meredith Lee Hill and Andrew Howard contributed.