华尔街研究及咨询公司Gartner坚持其预测：由于顶级人工智能（AI）模型的盈利能力存在问题，原本预计将达到3.5万亿美元的人工智能投资规模可能会受到严重影响。
Wall Street research and advisory firm Gartner is standing by its forecast that $3.5 trillion in AI investment could be on the rocks due to profitability concerns among the top AI models.
Gartner上周发布的这一预测在AI行业引发了巨大震动。该公司首席分析师约翰·洛夫洛克（John Lovelock）周一在接受CNBC采访时表示，目前的收益水平还无法支撑如此大规模的投资。
Gartner's forecast, issued last week, helped send shockwaves through the AI trade. The firm's chief forecaster, John Lovelock, told CNBC Monday that returns are not yet backing up the full scale of investment.
洛夫洛克补充称，由于各AI企业的投资时机不同步，这些专注于AI技术的公司之间可能会发生整合或收购。
Consolidation and takeovers among AI-dedicated companies known as neoclouds could ensue, due partly to a mismatch in timing, he added.
“目前，计算资源的供应远远超过了市场需求；许多计算能力和处理能力都被免费提供给用户，”洛夫洛克告诉CNBC，“所有参与AI竞争的公司都在争相成为‘最后存活下来的企业’。Gartner跟踪的几乎所有AI相关市场都可能最终形成两强垄断的局面。”这两大巨头分别是Anthropic和OpenAI。洛夫洛克指出，这些企业为维持其市场地位所需的资金流，与它们所投入的资金规模并不成正比。
"At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand, and we have a lot of the tokens and processing power being given away in freemium solutions," he told CNBC. "Everyone in the AI race is running for a last-man standing position. Pretty much every market that Gartner is tracking in our AI race is likely to collapse down to a duopoly." That duopoly for the main commercial frontier models consists of Anthropic and OpenAI. The computing-power asset base that's being constructed by neoclouds to serve that duopoly requires a degree of cash flow for those businesses that isn't yet scaling in proportion to the investment, Lovelock said.
洛夫洛克重申，这些专注于AI技术的公司不会全部倒闭，但很可能会经历整合（如被收购或合并）。
Neoclouds would not be going out of business en masse, Lovelock reiterated, but could be subject to consolidation, such as takeovers and mergers.
基于这一盈利能力分析，Gartner预测：80%的AI计算服务提供商（即所谓的“neoclouds”）可能无法继续以独立公司的形式运营。
As a result of their profitability analysis, Gartner predicted last week that 80% of neoclouds, which are AI-dedicated computing power providers, could cease functioning as independent companies.
上周，这些AI服务提供商的股价大幅下跌——CoreWeave下跌25%、Nebius下跌25%、IREN下跌16%；截至10月16日当周结束时，标准普尔500指数下跌2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌4%，而道琼斯工业平均指数则上涨0.7%（因为投资者纷纷减持科技股）。
Neoclouds were hit hard last week, helping to pull the rest of the stock market down with them. CoreWeave dropped 25%; Nebius dropped 25%; and IREN fell 16%. The S&P 500 finished down 2% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4% for the week ending Oct. 16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.7% as investors rotated away from technology stocks.
不过到了周一午盘，CoreWeave的股价回升了约2%，Nebius上涨了3.3%，IREN上涨了5.6%。
CoreWeave was up about 2% in midday trading on Monday, while Nebius was up 3.3% and IREN was ahead 5.6%.
沃尔夫分析师在周日的一份报告中表示，加特纳报告很可能导致了市场压力。
Analysts for Wolfe said in a Sunday note that the Gartner report likely contributed to the market stress.
“到[星期三]结束时，市场似乎已经处于紧张状态，当时加特纳的一份报告发布，警告称到2030年，超过3.5万亿美元的人工智能基础设施支出可能面临减值风险，其中新云服务提供商尤其脆弱，”罗思的斯蒂芬妮·沃尔夫在给客户的信中写道。
"By the end of [Wednesday], the market appeared to already be on edge when a report from Gartner dropped, warning that more than $3.5tn in AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030, with neocloud providers particularly vulnerable," Stephanie Wolfe at Roth wrote to clients.
洛夫洛克还在周一表示，人工智能是一种技术，而非市场，将其比作食盐——会被撒入现有的商业运营中，而不是创造出一个全新的领域，在这个领域里公司会销售具有差异化且相互竞争的产品。
Lovelock also said Monday that AI is a technology as opposed to a market, comparing it to table salt that will be sprinkled into existing commercial operations rather than creating an inherently new field in which companies will sell differentiated and competing products.
在他们的周三报告中，加特纳研究人员发现，总体而言，“人工智能收入将不足以支持对所有计划中的人工智能资本支出实现盈利回报”，时间范围是2027年至2030年。
In their Wednesday report, Gartner researchers found that overall "AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns on all planned AI capital expenditures" between 2027 and 2030.
这一发现是在前沿算法公司Anthropic的收入增长放缓时出现的，其增长率从第二季度的140%下降至第三季度的45%。
The finding came as revenue growth for frontier algorithm company Anthropic decelerated, falling from 140% growth in the second quarter to 45% growth in the third.
Anthropic的季度收入为168亿美元，许多科技分析师认为这是人工智能交易的关键支柱之一，但相较于超大规模云服务商预计到2030年将投入的超过5万亿美元，这一收入规模显得相当小，且后者的投入速度仍在加快。
The quarterly revenue level of $16.8 billion for Anthropic, which many tech analysts view as one of the linchpins of the AI trade, is quite small relative to the more than $5 trillion that hyperscalers are expected to invest through 2030, the pace of which is increasing.
沃尔夫的罗思指出，OpenAI的年度收入预期在上周就低于预期200亿美元。
OpenAI annual revenue expectations missed by $20 billion the week before, Roth at Wolfe noted.
加特纳并非唯一警告投资者对人工智能建设的计算可能出错的机构。杰富瑞全球股票策略负责人克里斯·伍德自至少9月起就一直在警告人工智能领域可能出现的资本毁灭。著名投资者保罗·都铎·琼斯上周告诉CNBC，宏观经济因素将导致2027年股市面临挑战性的一年。
Gartner hasn't been alone in warning that investors' math for the AI buildout may be off. Jefferies' global head of equity strategy Chris Wood has been warning about capital destruction in AI since at least September. Famous investor Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC last week that macroeconomic considerations would lead to a challenging year for the stock market in 2027.
“[如果]我们把所有的回购、并购以及所有推动市场大幅上涨的积极因素加起来……比如说自2009年以来，如果我把这些全部加起来，然后再从中减去IPO、二次发行、解禁等因素，那么你就会看到自2009年以来最为负面的资金流动图景，”他说。
"[If] we sum up all the buybacks, M&A, all the positive things that have powered this market so much … say since 2009, if I sum up all those and then I subtract from that the IPOs, secondaries, unlocks, et cetera, then you've got certainly the most negative flow picture since 2009," he said.