人们自然会关注民主党是否能在今年夺回国会控制权。但鲜为人知的州立法机构选举可能同样至关重要。
So much attention is understandably focused on whether Democrats can take back control of Congress this year. But little-noticed state legislative races could be just as consequential.
如果民主党夺回国会，他们可以阻止特朗普的MAGA议程。但如果民主党夺回州政府控制权，他们实际上可以开始逆转它。
If Democrats retake Congress, they can block Trump’s MAGA agenda. But if Democrats retake control of the states, they can actually begin to reverse it.
回到2010年，共和党几乎赢得了700个州立法机构席位。奥巴马曾著名地称其为“惨败”。这使得共和党能够在关键摇摆州绘制出严重党派倾斜的选区图，从而在接下来的15年里锁定了共和党的一边倒多数。
Back in 2010, Republicans picked up nearly 700 state legislative seats. Barack Obama famously called it “a shellacking.”That allowed the GOP to draw heavily gerrymandered maps in key swing states that locked in lopsided Republican majorities for the next 15 years.
目前共和党控制着57个州立法机构议院，而民主党控制着39个。
Republicans currently control 57 state legislative chambers compared to 39 for Democrats.
但2026年可能会成为2010年的逆转，正如我的同事蒂姆·墨菲去年所写的那样。
But 2026 could be 2010 in reverse, as my colleague Tim Murphy wrote last year.
民主党今年正在27个州的42个议院中瞄准500个州立法机构席位。
Democrats are targeting 500 state legislative seats in 42 chambers across 27 states this year.
他们可能在六个州（佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州）打破共和党多数，并在七个州（阿拉斯加州、亚利桑那州、密歇根州、明尼苏达州、新罕布什尔州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州）获得新的多数。
They could break up GOP majorities in six states (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas) and pick up new majorities in seven states (Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
为什么州立法机构如此重要？只需看看特朗普试图在州一级推翻2020年大选结果。或者看看最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案后，共和党控制的州通过的一堆堕胎禁令。或者看看在特朗普施压要求他们在中期选举前重新绘制选区图后，共和党进行的中期选区划分，以及罗伯茨法院削弱《投票权法案》的情况。
Why do state legislatures matter? Look no further than Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election at the state level. Or the flood of abortion bans passed by GOP states after the Supreme Court overturned . Or the mid-decade gerrymandering done by Republicans after Trump pressured them to redraw their maps before the midterms and the Roberts court eviscerated the Voting Rights Act.
州立法机构决定着诸多重大议题，从重新划分选区到投票法律、堕胎权利等等。然而，它们得到的关注远不及联邦选举，尽管它们的权力平衡往往仅由少数几票决定。2017年，弗吉尼亚州众议院的控制权实际上是通过从一个碗里抽出一个名字来决定的。
State legislatures decide so many big issues, from redistricting to voting laws to abortion rights and much more. Yet they receive a fraction of the attention of federal races, even though their balance of power is often decided by a handful of votes. Control of Virginia’s House of Delegates was literally decided by pulling a name out of a bowl in 2017.
说一票可以左右选举已经成为老生常谈。但对于州立法机构选举来说，这实际上是真的！
It’s become a cliche to say that one vote can swing an election. But for state legislative races it’s actually true!