东京 — — 随着长期追求的2%物价增长目标触手可及，日本银行正准备将重点转向维持通胀在该水平附近稳定，尽管政府仍对宣称“任务完成”持谨慎态度。“潜在通胀率已经相当接近2%，”日本银行行长植田和雄周五在曼谷举行的二十国集团和七国集团会议期间的新闻发布会上表示。
TOKYO -- With a long-sought target of 2% price growth within reach, the Bank of Japan is preparing to shift its focus to keeping inflation stable around that rate, even as the government remains wary of declaring "mission accomplished." "The underlying rate of inflation has come quite close to 2%," BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda told a press conference in Bangkok on Friday on the sidelines of Group of 20 and Group of Seven meetings.
“我们的主要政策目标将是确保通胀率牢固地锚定在2%左右，”植田补充道。
"Our major policy objective will be to ensure that inflation becomes firmly anchored around 2%," Ueda added.
自2013年以来，实现稳定的2%物价增长一直是日本银行和政府的目标，当时他们携手合作，希望战胜通货紧缩。
Achieving stable 2% price growth has been a goal for the BOJ and the government since 2013, when they joined forces in hopes of beating deflation.
日本银行在决定是否加息时会关注潜在通胀 — — 即排除临时价格变动的通胀。只要潜在通胀率保持在2%以下，银行就可以证明维持宽松货币条件以支持经济活动的合理性。
The BOJ watches underlying inflation -- which excludes temporary price changes -- when deciding whether to raise interest rates. As long as underlying inflation remains below 2%, the bank can justify maintaining accommodative conditions to support economic activity.
一旦达到2%，价格的持续上行压力可能需要进一步加息以收紧货币条件。
Once it reaches 2%, continued upward pressure on prices could require additional rate increases to tighten monetary conditions.
日本银行并不依赖单一指标，而是会综合考察多种潜在通胀的衡量方式。
Rather than relying on a single indicator, the BOJ looks at different measures of underlying inflation.
其中一个指标是剔除鲜食品以及电力和燃气补贴等临时政策后的消费者物价指数。该指数在8月同比上涨2.6%，连续23个月保持在2%以上的增长。
One gauge is the consumer price index excluding fresh food and temporary policies like electricity and gas subsidies. The figure in August rose 2.6% on the year, marking the 23rd consecutive month of growth above 2%.
剔除价格波动尤为剧烈项目的 trimmed-mean CPI（修平均值CPI）曾一度跌至2%以下，但在7月和8月重新回到该阈值之上。
The trimmed-mean CPI, which excludes items with especially large price swings, had slipped below 2% but returned above that threshold in July and August.
通胀预期也在攀升。日本银行估计的10年期综合通胀预期指数 — — 该指数结合了家庭、企业和经济学家的预测 — — 持续呈上升趋势，部分读数已进入2%区间。
Inflation expectations are also climbing. The BOJ's estimated composite inflation expectations figure for 10 years ahead, which combines forecasts from households, businesses and economists, has continued to trend upward, with some readings moving into the 2% range.
几个因素表明通胀压力可能持续。中东地区的紧张局势推动油价上涨，日元持续走弱，导致企业间交易价格上升。10月8日，日本银行在地区分行行长会议上报告称，价格传导正在向与消费者相关的公司扩散。
Several factors suggest inflationary pressures could persist. Higher oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East and a persistently weak yen have raised prices in business-to-business transactions. At a regional branch managers' meeting on Oct. 8, BOJ officials reported that price pass-throughs are spreading to consumer-related companies.
东京23区的CPI（剔除鲜食）在9月份上涨2.7%，时隔八个月首次突破2%。全国范围的通胀也预计将在今年晚些时候加速，因为政府对电费和燃气费的补贴即将到期。
In Tokyo's 23 wards, CPI excluding fresh food rose 2.7% in September, topping 2% for the first time in eight months. Nationwide inflation is also expected to accelerate later this year as government subsidies for electricity and gas bills expire.
第一生命研究院的信夫芳树预测，通胀“将在2026年底至2027年初之间超过3%”。
Inflation "will exceed 3% between late 2026 and early 2027," predicts Yoshiki Shinke of Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
目前，人们的注意力转向日本银行10月29日至30日的下次货币政策会议，届时将发布季度《展望报告》。该行可能超越其之前的评估——即基本通胀正在接近2%——转而表明通胀已达到与其目标一致的水平。
Attention is now turning to the BOJ's next monetary policy meeting from Oct. 29 to Oct. 30, when it will release its quarterly Outlook Report. The bank may move beyond its previous assessment that underlying inflation is approaching 2% and instead signal that inflation has reached a level consistent with its target.
尽管日本银行在9月将政策利率提高至1.25%，但仍认为金融条件保持宽松，指出企业融资几乎未受到干扰。如果基本通胀达到2%，维持宽松条件的理由将削弱，进一步加息以防止过度升温的可能性将增加。
Even after raising its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the BOJ has maintained that financial conditions remain accommodative, noting little disruption to corporate financing. If underlying inflation reaches 2%, the rationale for keeping conditions loose will weaken, and further rate hikes aimed at preventing overshoot will become more likely.
金融市场正在关注日本银行在12月或2027年1月会议上再次加息的情景。
Financial markets are eyeing scenarios in which the BOJ raises rates again either in December or at its January 2027 meeting.
一位日本银行官员表示，“直接宣布2%目标已实现是否有任何优势仍存疑问。”植田和其他官员越来越强调确保通胀维持在2%水平的重要性，而不仅仅是达到这一目标。
One BOJ official said it was "doubtful whether there is any advantage to stating outright the 2% target has been achieved." Ueda and other officials have increasingly emphasized the importance of ensuring that inflation remains at the 2% level, rather than simply reaching that goal.
不愿宣称胜利的一个原因是需要与政府对经济的评估保持一致。经济部门的几位高级官员表示，他们不认为政府会在近期宣布通缩结束。
One reason behind the reluctance to claim victory is the need to maintain consistency with the government's assessment of the economy. Several senior officials at economic agencies said they do not expect the government to declare an end to deflation anytime soon.
这样做可能会限制首相高市早苗管理经济的选择。虽然高市早苗表示日本不再需要通胀刺激措施，但她的政府正在宣传一种“负责任的积极财政政策”，其中包括对食品消费税实施为期两年的减税。
Doing so could limit Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's options for managing the economy. Although Takaichi has said Japan no longer needs reflationary measures, her government is touting a "responsible proactive fiscal policy" that includes a 2-year reduction in the consumption tax on food.