阿拉伯领导人正敦促阿拉伯选民踊跃投票，以帮助击败本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，并支持由加迪·艾森科特领导的反内塔尼亚胡阵营。
Arab leaders are urging high turnout to help defeat Benjamin Netanyahu and support an anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot.
民调显示艾森科特领先，但未达到多数，因此阿拉伯人的支持可能决定能否组建新政府，还是僵局持续。
Polls show Eisenkot ahead but short of a majority, so Arab support could decide whether a new government forms or deadlock continues.
曼苏尔·阿巴斯正寻求通过与犹太政党合作来施加影响，而阿拉伯选民则对妖魔化、犯罪和极右翼政策感到愤怒。
Mansour Abbas is seeking influence through partnership with Jewish parties, while Arab voters are angry about demonisation, crime, and far-right policies.
AI生成 拿撒勒，以色列——以色列的巴勒斯坦领导人正敦促少数族裔阿拉伯社区的民众在下周的选举中大量投票，他们寻求将总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡赶下台，并推翻该国历史上最右翼的政府。
AI generated NAZARETH, Israel – Israel’s Palestinian leaders are urging people in the minority Arab community to vote in big numbers in next week’s election as they seek to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and topple the most right-wing government in the country’s history.
占人口21%的阿拉伯少数群体——他们血统上是巴勒斯坦人，但公民身份是以色列人——如果投票率高，可能会推动以色列复杂的联盟算术，有利于由前军事首脑加迪·艾森科特领导的反内塔尼亚胡阵营。
High turnout by the 21% Arab minority, who are Palestinian by heritage but Israeli by citizenship, could nudge Israel’s complex coalition arithmetic in favour of an anti-Netanyahu bloc led by a former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot.
“我们能够确保组建一个变革的新政府，”曼苏尔·阿巴斯在他位于拿撒勒的办公室对路透社说。拿撒勒是以色列阿拉伯人口最多的城市。阿巴斯是一名伊斯兰主义牙医出身的政治家，领导联合阿拉伯名单党。
“We can ensure the formation of a new government of change,” Mansour Abbas, an Islamist dentist-turned-politician who heads the United Arab List party, told Reuters in his office in Nazareth, Israel’s most populous Arab city.
民调显示，没有阿拉伯人的支持，艾森科特无法获得多数。阿巴斯和其他阿拉伯领导人在实现其目标——在没有内塔尼亚胡的任何未来政府中发挥作用——方面面临一大障碍。
Polls show Eisenkot short of majority without Arab support Abbas and other Arab leaders face one big obstacle to their goal of playing a role in any future administration without Netanyahu.
艾森科特迄今排除了与大多数巴勒斯坦以色列人会投票支持的阿拉伯政党组建政府的可能性，理由是缺乏共同价值观。
Eisenkot has so far ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties that most Palestinian Israelis will vote for, citing a lack of shared values.
但阿巴斯认为会有回旋余地，或许是在投票之后，这主要归功于选举算术冷酷而严酷的现实。
But Abbas thinks there will be room for manoeuvre, perhaps after the vote, largely thanks to the cold, hard realities of electoral maths.
民意调查表明，艾森科特由中间派、右翼和左翼政党拼凑而成的阵营将获得最多选票，但达不到多数，将需要阿拉伯人的支持——无论是作为联盟伙伴还是来自外部——来支撑一个少数派政府。
Opinion polls suggest Eisenkot’s patchwork bloc of centrist, right- and left-wing parties will get the most votes, but fall short of a majority, and will need Arab support, either as coalition partners or from outside, to prop up a minority government.
阿巴斯说：“我们希望取代右翼政府……结束战争和这些政策，停止定居点扩张，并解决未能制止定居者袭击的问题。”
“We want to replace the right-wing government... to end the wars and these policies, to stop the expansion of settlements and to address the failure to stop settler attacks,” Abbas said.
“我们还希望有一个能为巴勒斯坦人和以色列人带来共同安全与和平的政府。”目前，艾森科特坚持自己的立场。艾森科特在10月的一档播客节目中说：“我不会与任何阿拉伯政党结盟”，并提到的理由之一是这些政党拒绝将哈马斯列为恐怖组织。
“We also want a government that brings shared security and peace for Palestinians and Israelis.”For now, Eisenkot is sticking to his position. “I will not align myself with any Arab party,” Eisenkot said in a podcast in October, citing among other issues their refusal to label Hamas a terrorist organisation.
如果任何阵营都未能组建起可运作的政府，这可能导致一段政治僵局期，随后在2027年重新举行选举，在此期间内塔尼亚胡将继续掌权。
If any bloc fails to form a workable government, that could lead to a period of political deadlock, then fresh elections in 2027, with Netanyahu left in charge in the meantime.
但至少内塔尼亚胡似乎认真对待某种形式的艾森科特-阿拉伯联盟的威胁，或者至少将其视为煽动其支持者的机会。他的竞选活动利用篡改过的图片和AI生成的视频，描绘其对手拥抱阿拉伯领导人。
But Netanyahu, for one, appears to be taking the threat of some sort of Eisenkot-Arab alliance seriously, or at least sees it as an opportunity to rile up his base. His campaign has used doctored images and AI-generated videos to depict his rivals embracing Arab leaders.
今年夏天发布的一段假视频显示，艾森科特跑过一片草地，投入阿巴斯张开的双臂。
One fake video, released over the summer, shows Eisenkot running through a meadow into the outstretched arms of Abbas.
阿巴斯自己的经历表明，这种联盟是可以建立的。2021年，他成为首位加入以色列执政联盟并担任部长的阿拉伯穆斯林，当时由纳夫塔利·贝内特领导政府，贝内特现在是艾森科特阵营中的右翼成员。
Abbas’ own career shows such alliances can be made. In 2021 he became the first Arab Muslim to join an Israeli coalition as a minister, in a government led by Naftali Bennett, now a right-wing member of Eisenkot’s bloc.
那届政府在18个月后垮台，部分原因是两人在被占领的约旦河西岸问题上存在分歧。
That government collapsed after 18 months, partly over disagreements between the two men on the occupied West Bank.
这一次，阿巴斯表示他可以掩盖这些分歧。为了争取犹太政党的支持，他采取了前所未有的举措，将犹太裔前警官约阿夫·塞加洛维茨列为候选人名单的第二位。
This time round, Abbas said he could paper over those differences. To win over Jewish parties, he has taken the unprecedented step of giving the number two spot on his slate to a Jewish former police official, Yoav Segalovitz.
阿巴斯说：“这传递了与犹太社区和犹太公民建立伙伴关系的信息。”
“It sends a message of partnership with the Jewish community and with Jewish citizens,” Abbas said.
阿拉伯人因以色列右翼的妖魔化而感到沮丧，犯罪问题以色列此次选举将是自2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以来的首次选举，被视为对以色列任职时间最长的领导人内塔尼亚胡领导力的公投。
Arabs frustrated with demonisation by Israel right, crime Israel’s election will be the first since the Oct 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and is being viewed as a referendum on the leadership of Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader.
民调显示，如果今天举行选举，艾森科特领导的阵营将在以色列议会120个席位中赢得52席。内塔尼亚胡的宗教民族主义阵营将赢得50席。
Polls show Eisenkot’s bloc would win 52 of the Knesset’s 120 seats if elections were held today. Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist bloc would win 50 seats.
预计阿巴斯的政党将赢得五个席位，另有八席将归于“联合名单”——由三个阿拉伯政党组成的联盟。
Abbas’ party is projected to win five seats, with a further eight going to the Joint List, a coalition of three Arab parties.
投票前，内塔尼亚胡政府的极右翼财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇提出了一项计划，要将北部拿撒勒周边地区以及以色列南部阿拉伯人聚居区“犹太化”，并将其比作约旦河西岸的定居者扩张主义。
Ahead of the vote, Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu’s far-right finance minister, proposed a plan to “Judaize” areas around Nazareth in the north and in southern Israel where most Arabs live, describing it as similar to settler expansionism in the West Bank.
拿撒勒的政党组织者希望利用阿拉伯人对内塔尼亚胡、斯莫特里奇和极右翼警察部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔的不满，以及对其社区犯罪率上升的愤懑情绪。
Party organisers in Nazareth are hoping to capitalize on Arab anger with Netanyahu, Smotrich and far-right police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as well as frustration with rising crime in their communities.
上周，阿巴斯政党的拉票人员在拿撒勒宏伟的天使报喜教堂附近分发传单。
Last week, canvassers with Abbas’ party handed out flyers near Nazareth’s massive Church of the Annunciation.
“这一次比以往任何时候都更需要走出去大量投票，”他们接触到的其中一人、74岁的加桑·布苏尔说。“危险比过去更大，”他补充道。
“There is a greater need this time than ever before to go out and vote in large numbers,” said one of the people they approached, 74-year-old Gassan Bsoul. “The danger is greater than in the past,” he added.
阿拉伯选民投票率预计将走高。以色列民调机构预计，阿拉伯选民的投票率将高于2022年和2020年的前几轮选举。总部位于海法附近一个阿拉伯德鲁兹城镇的Stat-Net研究所预计投票率为63%，而2022年为56%。
Arab turnout expected to be high Israeli pollsters expect Arab voter turnout to be higher than in previous rounds of elections in 2022 and 2020. The Stat-Net Research Institute, based in an Arab Druze town near Haifa, projects turnout of 63%, compared with 56% in 2022.
虽然阿巴斯试图将其政党定位为有可能加入政府，但“联合名单”的领导人表示，留在反对党同样可以发挥影响力。
While Abbas has tried to position his party to potentially join government, leaders of the Joint List have said they could wield just as much influence by staying in opposition.
“联合名单”领导人艾哈迈德·蒂比表示，他的团体准备组建“一个预防性阵营，从外部支持（政府）”。
Ahmad Tibi, a Joint List leader, said his group was ready to form “a preventive block to support (a government) from the outside”.
他说，“联合名单”将加入艾森科特领导的政府，投票“成立一个官方调查委员会调查10月7日事件”——这是这位前军方首脑及其伙伴公开宣称的优先事项。
He said the Joint List would join an Eisenkot-led government in voting “to establish an official commission of inquiry into Oct 7”, a stated priority of the former military chief and his partners.
“我们将摆脱内塔尼亚胡、斯莫特里奇和本-格维尔的极端右翼政府作为首要任务，”蒂比说。
“We are placing as our top priority getting rid of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir,” Tibi said.