在农村美国连续二十年失利后，民主党突然在农村地区展开了反击。该党正在爱荷华州、堪萨斯州及其他农业州开展竞争激烈的参议院竞选，同时也在可能帮助其在一月份重新夺回国会控制权的高度农村地区众议院选区开展竞选。
After two decades of defeats in rural America, Democrats are suddenly putting up a fight in farm country. The party is running competitive Senate races in Iowa Kansas and other farm states, as well as House races in heavily rural districts that could help it regain control of Congress in January.
这种命运的逆转应归功于（或归咎于，视你所属政党而定）唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税政策及其与伊朗的冲突，这些政策冲击了农民，使农村经济陷入危机。农业部的分析师预计，由于成本上升和收入下降，农民今年的净收入将下降5.5%。全国农业法律中心的统计显示，去年农场破产案件激增45%，且预计2026年还将再增长11%。
Credit (or blame, depending on your party) for this reversal of fortune lies with President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his war with Iran, which have battered farmers and pushed the rural economy into crisis. The Department of Agriculture’s analysts expect farmers’ net incomes to decline by 5.5% this year, as costs rise and receipts fall. The National Agricultural Law Center’s tally of farm bankruptcies jumped 45% last year, and is on pace to rise another 11% in 2026.
加工食品公司成本的上升也对农村社区产生了更广泛的惩罚性影响。三种不同的冲击同时击中了农民和农业产业。
Higher costs for processed-food companies also have punishing consequences in rural communities more broadly. Three different impacts have simultaneously hammered farmers and the agriculture industry.
首先，特朗普政府的关税上调提高了成本。总统对包括锄头和犁、铁丝网、螺丝、木材、农药、灌溉设备和收割机在内的一系列产品征收了高达50%的进口税。因此，农民几乎所有的活动——从修篱笆到除虫除草再到收获庄稼——都变得更昂贵。克雷顿大学九月份的农村主要街道指数显示，这导致农业设备销售下降，意味着今年当地约翰迪尔和博布卡特经销商的业务减少，未来几年农业生产力也将降低。
First, the Trump administration’s tariff hikes raised costs. The president slapped import taxes as high as 50% on a range of products including hoes and plows, barbed wire, screws, wood, pesticides, irrigation equipment and harvesters. As a result, just about everything farmers do — from putting up a fence to spraying for weeds and bugs to harvesting crops — costs more. That has helped dent sales of farm equipment, according to Creighton University’s September Rural Mainstreet Index meaning less business for local John Deere and Bobcat dealers this year and lower farm productivity in the years ahead.
加工食品公司成本的上升也对农村社区产生了更广泛的惩罚性影响。去年，商务部对罐头食品征收50%的关税后，德尔蒙特公司关闭了其位于加利福尼亚州莫德斯塔的罐头厂。
Higher costs for processed-food companies also have punishing consequences in rural communities more broadly. Last year, after the Commerce Department put tariffs of 50% on tin cans, Del Monte closed its cannery in Modesta, California.
开业超过一个世纪的罐头厂一直是加州桃子和梨的主要买家。其倒闭导致罐头厂600个岗位流失，使得中央谷地一年5亿美元的农产品销售额化为乌有，并迫使当地农民今年夏天连根拔起42万棵桃树。
Opened over a century ago the cannery had been the main buyer of California peaches and pears. Its collapse cost 600 jobs at the cannery, vaporized $500 million in annual Central Valley farm sales and forced local farmers to uproot 420,000 peach trees this summer.
“爱荷华已准备好迎接变革”：民主党人乔什·图雷克谈翻转爱荷华州共和党参议院席位 2026年10月6日 其次，随着贸易伙伴反击，美国农产品出口陷入困境。美国是世界最大的农产品出口国 — — 20%的农业收入来自海外销售。去年1760亿美元的出口额包括运往南太平洋阳光斑斓的斐济的156吨加州葡萄，以及价值1万美元的饼干运往北大西洋多风的法罗群岛。这一成功帮助美国农村繁荣发展，但也使我们的农民成为报复的独特脆弱目标。
‘Iowa is ready for change’: Democrat Josh Turek on flipping Iowa’s GOP Senate seat October 6, 2026 Second, U.S. farm exports have struggled as trade partners punch back. America is the world’s top agricultural exporter — 20% of farm receipts come from sales abroad. Last year’s $176 billion in exports included 156 tons of California grapes shipped to sunny Fiji in the South Pacific, and $10,000 worth of biscuits sent to the North Atlantic’s stormy Faroe Islands. This success has helped rural America prosper, but it also makes our farmers uniquely vulnerable targets for retaliation.
中国、加拿大和墨西哥三国购买了美国年度农产品出口的一半。2025年对华出口下降了66%，其中大豆单独崩盘，从126亿美元跌至30亿美元，仅在今年与北京的关税“休战”期间略有回升。由于特朗普对加拿大令人费解的经济冲击，我们第二大农产品市场的新鲜农产品销售今年下降了10%，而葡萄酒、啤酒和烈酒的销售则下降了三分之二。
Three countries — China, Canada and Mexico — buy half of America’s annual farm exports. Sales to China fell 66% in 2025, with soybean shipments alone collapsing, from $12.6 billion to $3.0 billion, and have only somewhat rebounded during this year’s tariff “truce” with Beijing. Thanks to Trump’s mystifying economic assault on Canada, fresh produce sales to our second-biggest ag market are down 10% this year, while wines, beer and liquor have fallen by two-thirds.
共和党在美国农村政治中的主导地位已塑造了政策、政府和法律20年。特朗普决定颠覆农业经济的举动已经动摇了这一格局。
The Republican Party’s hold on politics in rural America has shaped policy, government and law for 20 years. Trump’s decision to upend the farm economy has shaken it.
第三，今年春天，特朗普决定对伊朗发动战争。霍尔木兹海峡航运因此中断，首先导致全球化肥价格飙升——自总统就职以来上涨了20%——随后又更猛烈地冲击了柴油价格。农民需要柴油来驱动拖拉机、收割机和灌溉设备；运输其谷物和农产品上市的货运公司也同样依赖柴油。目前柴油价格为每加仑6.32美元，比一年前上涨了2.50美元。普通汽油价格的上涨也没有帮助：正如美联储理事丽莎·库克最近指出的，交通费用占农村家庭支出的四分之一。
Third, this spring came Trump’s decision to launch a war with Iran. The consequent halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz first spiked global fertilizer prices —up 20% from when the president was inaugurated— and then hit diesel fuel even harder. Farmers need diesel to run tractors, harvesters and irrigation equipment; the trucking firms that move their grain and produce to market use it too. Diesel now costs $6.32 per gallon, up $2.50 from a year ago. The surge in normal gasoline prices hasn’t helped either: As Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook recently noted, transport accounts for a quarter of rural household expenses.
特朗普的政策也以更间接的方式冲击了农业。无论是关税还是对伊朗的战争，都推高了通胀，迫使美联储维持高利率——这对每年需要大量借贷来融资采购的农民来说是一个沉重负担。
Trump’s policies have crunched agriculture in less direct ways, too. Both the tariffs and the Iran war have pushed up inflation, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high — a major burden on farmers who borrow heavily to finance their supplies every year.
民主党能否赢得爱荷华州？美国人对经济和伊朗感到“焦虑”：阿特·库伦 政府的应对措施是一系列临时补救措施，临时紧急援助方案层出不穷，最终在去年年底向农民转移了120亿美元的资金。但正如破产率上升所显示的，这些措施并未治愈政府政策造成的创伤。
Can Dems win Iowa? Americans ‘anxious’ about economy and Iran: Art Cullen The administration’s response has been a series of Band-Aids, with improvised emergency aid packages culminating in $12 billion in transfers to farmers at the end of last year. But as rising bankruptcies show, these measures haven’t healed the wounds the administration’s policies have inflicted.
我不想夸大今年民主党在农村地区的获胜机会。共和党控制着绝大多数依赖农业的众议院选区，并且在本次中期选举后很可能继续如此。同样地，位于大平原和南部的高度农村州的参议院席位也很可能继续由共和党把持。
I don’t want to exaggerate the rural pickup opportunities for Democrats this year. Republicans control the vast majority of House districts dependent on agriculture, and will likely continue to do so after this midterm. The same goes for Senate seats for heavily rural states in the Great Plains and the South.
尽管如此，用农业的比喻来说，一些变革的“种子”或许已经开始发芽了。过去20年来，共和党对美国农村地区的控制一直主导着该地区的政策制定、政府运作以及法律体系。特朗普推行的农业改革政策动摇了这一现状。但这并不意味着民主党已经赢得了农村选民的支持。不过，他们如今拥有几十年来最好的机会来争取选民的支持；一旦执政，他们就可以着手解决农村地区的各种危机。
Still, to hazard an agriculture metaphor, some seeds of change might be sprouting. The Republican Party’s hold on politics in rural America has shaped policy, government and law for 20 years. Trump’s decision to upend the farm economy has shaken it. This doesn’t mean Democrats have yet won the affection of farm country voters. But they have their best opening in decades to win a hearing and, once in government, to act on the rural crisis.
具体措施包括废除特朗普颁布的关税、改善与加拿大和墨西哥的关系，并推动那些被现任政府搁置的农业法案的通过。这些举措有助于现代化农村基础设施，同时恢复那些能够惠及低收入家庭和农民的营养援助计划。这些改变或许会开始重塑未来几年的政治格局。（文章标题：特朗普的政策正在重创农民，为民主党带来了机会）
That means repealing Mr. Trump’s tariffs, stabilizing relations with Canada and Mexico, and passing the farm bill this administration has abandoned, which could have helped modernize rural infrastructure and restore nutrition programs that benefit low-income families and farmers alike. That might begin changing the political landscape for years to come. The post Trump’s policies are hammering farmers — and putting rural America in play for Democrats MS NOW