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失业率意外下降为加息提供支撑Surprise dip in jobless rate supports interest rate hike

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英国失业率已降至4.7%,这组官方数据将支持英国央行下月加息的论点。

The UK's unemployment rate has fallen to 4.7%, in a set of official figures that will support the case for a Bank of England interest rate hike next month.

英国国家统计局(ONS)报告称,截至8月的三个月内失业率有所下降,从上月记录的4.9%降至去年7月以来的最低水平。

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a dip in the jobless rate over the three months to August - from 4.9% recorded last month - to stand at its lowest level since July last year.

鉴于雇主面临成本上升的负担,经济学家此前曾预计失业率将上升至5%。

Economists had expected an increase to 5%, given the burden of rising costs for employers.

最新财经:车主获得对抗停车罚单的新权利。更广泛的数据还显示,工资增长步伐有所加快——但仅在计入奖金的情况下才如此。

Money latest: Drivers get new rights to fight parking fines The wider figures also showed a pick up in the pace of wage growth - but only when the effects of bonuses were included.

ONS劳动力市场统计副主任大卫·弗里曼表示:“虽然2026年劳动力市场总体持平,但最新季度的数据显示,就业率小幅上升,失业率小幅下降。

ONS deputy director of labour market statistics, David Freeman, said: "While the labour market remains broadly flat in 2026, data from the latest quarter shows the employment rate edging up and a small drop in unemployment.

“在职人员人数在同期内仍略有下降,不过最近一个月的数据表明,这一趋势可能开始趋于平稳。

"The number of workers on payroll remains slightly down over the same period, though data for the most recent month suggests that might be starting to level off.

“空缺职位数量出现了今年以来的最大降幅,主要集中在小型企业,这些企业将劳动力成本上升列为关键因素。

"The number of vacancies has seen its largest fall since the start of the year, concentrated mainly within smaller businesses, which cite increased labour costs as a key factor.

“常规工资增长保持相对稳定,不过包括奖金在内的总薪酬已降至近六年来的最低水平。”

"Regular wage growth remained relatively stable, though total pay - including bonuses - has eased to its lowest rate in nearly six years." The data was released against a backdrop of rising challenges in the economy, with an energy-led surge in the rate of inflation placing renewed pressure on businesses and family finances alike.

该数据发布之际,经济面临日益严峻的挑战,由能源推动的通胀率飙升,给企业和家庭财务都带来了新的压力。

While some help is expected on fuel duty in the chancellor's budget next week, along with targeted energy bill support, the Bank of England is widely tipped to raise borrowing costs through an interest rate hike just over a week later, to help tackle the growing inflation problem.

虽然下周财政大臣的预算案中预计会有部分燃油税减免,以及针对性的能源账单支持,但英国央行被普遍预计将在一周多之后通过加息提高借贷成本,以帮助应对日益严重的通胀问题。就业数据中失业率的下降,为加息提供了进一步的理由。

The case for a rise - from these employment figures - is bolstered by the reduction in the jobless rate.

这是因为失业率降低意味着经济需求增加,尽管中东冲突迄今引发的生活成本压力飙升,该经济体仍保持了韧性。

That is because lower unemployment means more demand in an economy which has remained resilient despite the spike in cost of living pressures caused by the Middle East conflict to date.

不过,伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示,在国家统计局数据公布之前,95%的市场参与者认为从3.75%上调至4%的加息已基本板上钉钉。

London Stock Exchange Group data did, however, signal that a rise from 3.75% to 4% was already largely locked in before the ONS figures were released as 95% of market participants believed it was imminent.

MHA咨询公司经济研究主管、荣誉教授乔·内利斯就就业数据表示:“英国失业率降至4.7%,为财政大臣在秋季预算前提供了重大提振,扭转了空缺岗位和信心双双下降的令人担忧的趋势。”

Emeritus Professor Joe Nellis, head of economic research at the advisory firm MHA, said of the the employment figures: "The drop in UK unemployment to 4.7% provides a major boost for the chancellor ahead of the autumn budget, reversing a worrying trend marked by falling vacancies and falling confidence.

此前,国际货币基金组织上周发布了乐观消息,预计英国经济今年将增长1.3%,使财政大臣在临近……预算之际处于比预期更好的位置。

This follows the upbeat news from the IMF last week that the economy is expected to grow by 1.3% this year, placing the chancellor in a better-than-expected position as we approach the...budget.

“然而,这不应被误认为是决定性的转折点。2027年呈现出的图景是:一个招聘疲弱、企业信心谨慎的经济体,这些状况可能会在未来几个月拖慢增长。”

"However, this should not be mistaken for a decisive turning point. The emerging picture for 2027 is one of an economy marked by weak recruitment and cautious business confidence, conditions that are likely to slow down growth in the months ahead."

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