Securities公司的Scott Rubner表示，投资者准备在下个月关键的美国中期选举结束后，重新大举涌入人工智能交易。
Securities’ Scott Rubner said investors are poised to pile back into the artificial intelligence trade next month, once the crucial US midterm elections have passed.
“所有人都把中期选举视为一个风险出清的节点，具体来说我认为那是AI能再次跑赢大盘的时期，”该公司股票及衍生品策略主管Rubner周二在纽约举行的Citadel Securities全球市场未来大会上，接受彭博电视采访时表示。
“Everyone is using the midterm elections as a level that is a clearing event for risk, and specifically I think that’s the period when AI can outperform again,” Rubner, the firm’s head of equity and derivatives strategy, said on Bloomberg Television on Tuesday at the Citadel Securities Future of Global Markets conference in New York City.
他补充道：“我们从客户那里得到的反馈是，‘乐意追高买入，但不愿在重大政治事件前买入’。”
“The feedback we are getting from our clients is, ‘happy to buy higher, but not buy now into a major political event,’” he added.
中期选举的结果将为AI监管及其他行业的政策带来明朗性。如果民主党赢得参众两院控制权，华尔街策略师预期监管将收紧，这可能导致半导体股票进一步抛售。
The outcome of the midterm elections will bring clarity on AI regulation and policies on other sectors. If the Democratic Party wins control of both houses of Congress, Wall Street strategists are expecting tighter regulation, which could lead to a further selloff in semiconductor stocks.
费城半导体指数遭受重创，截至周五连续八个交易日下跌近16%。与此同时，科技股占比较大的纳斯达克100指数下挫5.5%，更广泛的标普500指数上周同样表现挣扎。
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been hit hard, shedding nearly 16% over eight straight days through Friday. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index slumped 5.5% and the broader S&P 500 Index also struggled last week.
Rubner的言论与美国银行公司Michael Hartnett的观点不谋而合，后者预期在中期选举前几周，投资者将因利率上升和通胀居高不下而寻求避险。
Rubner’s remarks echo those expressed by Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett, who expects investors to seek shelter in the weeks leading up to the midterms amid higher interest rates and elevated inflation.
尽管如此，基准股指仍徘徊在历史高位附近，截至周一收盘，纳斯达克100指数也仅比10月6日的高点低5%。
Nonetheless, the benchmark equity index is hovering near its record and the Nasdaq 100 is also only 5% away from its Oct. 6 high as of Monday’s close.
据Rubner称，散户投资者“继续相当激进地逢低买入”，上周以16周来最大的力度抢筹半导体、新云计算和存储芯片股票。与此同时，他表示，机构客户继续去杠杆。
Retail investors “continue to buy the dip pretty aggressively,” snapping up semiconductor, neoclouds and memory stocks last week at the largest rate in 16 weeks, according to Rubner. At the same time, institutional clients continue to de-lever, he said.
最近的抛售是今年下半年更广泛轮动的一部分。鲁布纳表示，动量因子——即追逐赢家、抛售输家的策略——从1月1日至6月22日上涨了70%，此后已转为全年负收益。
The recent selloff is part of a broader rotation throughout the second half of this year. The momentum factor — the strategy of chasing winners and selling losers — was up 70% from Jan. 1 to June 22, and has since flipped negative for the year, said Rubner.
他补充道，在同一时期，AI赢家相对于AI落后者的涨幅曾超过100%，随后也转为负值。鲁布纳说：“我们在市场上看到了非常大规模的平仓。”
Similarly, AI winners were up over 100% compared to AI laggards over that same period before also turning negative, he added. “We’ve seen this very large unwinding in the market,” Rubner said.