英国央行货币政策委员会委员梅根·格林警告称，英国工资压力的缓解已停滞，表明劳动力市场比官员此前认为的更为强劲。
Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene warned that an easing in UK wage pressures has stalled, suggesting that the labor market is stronger than officials had thought.
格林周二呼吁货币政策委员会同事“主动抵御”价格反馈循环的风险，在下个月初的下次会议上加息。
Greene on Tuesday called on colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee to “proactively lean” against the risk of a feedback loop in prices by hiking interest rates at their next meeting in early November.
英国央行政策制定者此前从劳动力市场的疲软中获得了一些安慰，认为这有助于抑制由伊朗能源冲击引发的通胀飙升。然而，一直支持加息的鹰派官员格林表示，抑制薪酬压力的进展已停滞。
BOE policymakers have taken some comfort from the labor market’s weakness, arguing that it would help contain the surge in inflation caused by the Iran energy shock. However, Greene, a hawk who has backed higher rates, said that progress on bringing down pay pressures has halted.
“我们广泛的工资指标显示，劳动力市场的闲置空间比我们想象的要小，且可能已触顶，”她在伦敦政治经济学院的一次演讲中表示。“这表明第二轮效应扎根的风险更高。”她表示，前瞻性指标如调查显示，薪酬增长可能在接近3.5%的水平附近趋于平稳，高于通胀降至英国央行2%目标所需的水平。
“Our broad range of wage indicators suggests there is less slack in the labor market than we thought and it may have peaked,” she said in a speech at the London School of Economics. “This suggests the risk of second-round effects taking hold is higher.”Forward-looking measures such as surveys point to pay growth plateauing closer to 3.5%, above levels consistent with inflation falling to the BOE’s 2% target, she said.
她的言论是在周二早些时候的数据显示英国就业市场近几个月来有所好转之后发表的，雇主招聘更多员工，失业率出人意料地下降。截至8月的三个月内，私营部门工资增长升至3%，这是自2024年底以来的首次加速。
Her comments came after figures earlier on Tuesday pointed to the UK jobs market strengthening in recent months with employers hiring more workers and unemployment unexpectedly falling. Private-sector wage growth picked up to 3% in the three months through August, the first acceleration since late 2024.
尽管格林上个月在支持立即提高借贷成本方面处于少数派，但货币政策委员会的大多数成员预计将投票支持加息四分之一个百分点。该决定将于11月5日宣布。
While Greene was in the minority backing an immediate rise in borrowing costs last month, a majority of the MPC is now expected to vote for a quarter-point rate increase. The decision will be announced on Nov. 5.
多位英国央行官员已表示，在能源价格回升后正考虑加息，英国央行预计这将推动明年年初通胀率升至4%以上。周三公布的官方数据预计将显示，9月份机动车燃料成本将通胀率推升至九个月来的最高水平。
Several BOE officials have signaled they are considering a hike after a resurgence in energy prices which the UK central bank predicts will push inflation above 4% early next year. Official figures on Wednesday are expected to show motor fuel costs lifted inflation up to a nine-month high in September.
在一系列强劲增长数据之后，格林表示，“更广泛的经济表现出了惊人的韧性，这意味着经济闲置产能可能比一些劳动力市场指标所暗示的要小。”“如果是这样，通过工资设定渠道出现二轮效应的风险，可能比我们最初认为的更大，”她补充说，英国央行近年来往往低估了薪资压力。
After a run of strong growth data, Greene said the “wider economy has proved surprisingly resilient, implying there is less slack than some labor market indicators suggest.”“If so, there is a greater risk of second-round effects emerging through the wage-setting channel than we initially thought,” she said, adding that the UK central bank has tended to underestimate pay pressures in recent years.