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英格兰银行委员格林称通胀风险大于预期Bank of England's Greene says inflation risks are bigger than thought

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2026年2月5日,英国曼彻斯特,一名顾客走在乐购超市的过道里。路透社/菲尔·诺布尔/资料图片A shopper walks along an aisle inside a Tesco supermarket in Manchester, Britain, February 5, 2026 REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo

英格兰银行政策制定者梅根·格林表示,由于伊朗战争引发的能源价格冲击导致更广泛通胀反弹的风险,大于英格兰银行此前预期,她重申了利率应当上调的观点。

Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said the risks of a pickup in broader inflation as a result of the energy price shock from the Iran war were greater than the BoE expected and she reiterated her view that interest rates should go up.

格林是英格兰银行货币政策委员会中投票支持加息的少数派成员之一。她表示,最好假定能源冲击的所谓二轮效应更强,采取行动,随后如果需要再调整政策。

Greene – part of a minority on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee that has voted for higher rates – said it was better to act as if the so-called second-round effects from the energy shock were stronger and then adjust policy later if needed.

“因此,我继续认为我们应该主动对冲二轮效应的风险,”她周二在伦敦政治经济学院的演讲中说道。

"I therefore continue to believe we should proactively lean against the risk of second-round effects," she said in a speech at the London School of Economics on Tuesday.

到目前为止,英格兰银行并未跟随美国联邦储备委员会和欧洲中央银行,因应伊朗战争而加息。

So far the BoE has not followed the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in increasing borrowing costs in response to the Iran war.

支持维持利率不变的行长安德鲁·贝利表示,冲突持续时间越长,英格兰银行不做出反应就越困难,尽管他认为通胀压力依然“相当温和”。

But Governor Andrew Bailey, who has backed keeping rates on hold, has said that the longer the conflict goes on, the harder it will be for the BoE not to respond, although he thought inflation pressures remained "quite subdued".

投资者预期英格兰银行将在下个月将基准利率上调四分之一个百分点至4%。

Investors expect the BoE will raise its benchmark Bank Rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4% next month.

在演讲中,格林表示,她认为工资增长高于官方数据所显示的水平,鉴于通胀届时可能在4%左右运行,2027年初到期的薪资协议可能会比预期更高。

In her speech, Greene said she believed wage growth was running higher than official data has suggested and pay settlements due in early 2027 might come in higher than thought given inflation was likely to be running around 4% then.

她表示,尽管能源价格飙升,但英国经济今年显现出的韧性迹象,增加了提高借贷成本的理由。

She said signs of resilience in Britain's economy this year, despite the energy price jump, added to the case for higher borrowing costs.

“从这些数据来看,我们的货币政策立场是否具有实质性的限制性,对我来说并不明显,”格林说道。

"It is not obvious to me from this data that our monetary policy stance is meaningfully restrictive," Greene said.

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