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特斯拉与SpaceX大合并或使马斯克财富增加1100亿美元Tesla-SpaceX mega-merger may boost Elon Musk’s fortune by $110 billion

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埃隆·马斯克在SpaceX昨天的财报电话会议上成为头条焦点,当时他确认SpaceX和特斯拉公司已成立特别委员会,以探讨潜在的合并事宜。

Elon Musk made headlines on SpaceX’s earnings call yesterday when he confirmed that it and Tesla Inc. had formed special committees to explore a potential merger.“We are pretty much in the super-intelligence singularity,” said Musk.

“我们几乎处于超级智能奇点之中,”马斯克说。“合作能获得很多收益。”视合并的具体细节而定,马斯克本人也可能获得巨大收益。

“There’s a lot to be gained from cooperating.”Depending on the details of a merger, there could also be a lot to gain for Musk.A tie-up could add more than $110 billion to his fortune by accelerating the vesting of Tesla shares that otherwise wouldn’t vest until 2028, according to calculations by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

据彭博亿万富翁指数的测算,合并可能会通过加速特斯拉股份的归属,为马斯克的财富增加超过1100亿美元,这些股份原本要到2028年才会归属。此外,视特斯拉在交易中的估值而定,这可能会在无需特斯拉达到原本触发支付所要求的运营里程碑的情况下,从马斯克2025年的薪酬方案中解锁数十亿美元。

And depending on Tesla’s valuation in a deal, it could unlock billions more from Musk’s 2025 compensation package without Tesla having to meet the operating milestones that would otherwise be required to trigger the payout.

特斯拉和SpaceX未回复置评请求。周三,随着两家公司股价因合并讨论消息和SpaceX强劲的季度财报而上涨,马斯克的财富激增超过600亿美元。

Tesla and SpaceX didn’t reply to requests for comment. Musk’s fortune soared by more than $60 billion Wednesday after shares of both companies rose on news of the merger discussions and strong quarterly earnings from SpaceX.

雄心勃勃的目标 55岁的马斯克去年在特斯拉获得了一份破纪录的薪酬方案,若完全实现可能价值近1万亿美元。该方案跨度为10年,设定了雄心勃勃的绩效目标,包括交付100万台Optimus人形机器人、实现100万辆Robotaxi商业化运营以及交付2000万辆汽车。

Ambitious TargetsMusk, 55, was handed a record-breaking pay package at Tesla last year that could be worth nearly $1 trillion if fully earned. Spanning 10 years, it’s subject to ambitious performance goals including delivering a million Optimus robots, having a million robotaxis in commercial operation and delivering 20 million vehicles.

这些目标与2万亿美元至8.5万亿美元之间的市值目标相挂钩。所有运营和市值里程碑均尚未达成。

It paired the goals with market capitalisation targets of between $2 trillion and $8.5 trillion. All of the operational and market-cap milestones have yet to be achieved.

与大多数高管薪酬方案一样,马斯克的方案也受控制权变更条款约束。如果特斯拉现有股东在存续公司或其母公司中拥有的投票权低于50%,合并可能触发这些条款。

Like most executive compensation plans, Musk’s is subject to change-in-control provisions. A merger can trigger them if Tesla’s existing shareholders emerge with less than 50% of the voting power of the surviving company or its parent.

考虑到SpaceX目前的价值比特斯拉高出约三分之一,这是一个合理的结果,但最终将取决于交易的结构。如果触发这些条款,则忽略运营里程碑,马斯克的回报将按交易中特斯拉的市值计算。这意味着,如果特斯拉在合并中估值达到2万亿美元——即第一个市值里程碑——马斯克将解锁净值超过60亿美元的股份。特斯拉目前价值约1.5万亿美元。

“这些控制权变更条款在技术上是否触发,将取决于交易如何构建,但双方股东都应假设他的激励指向高估值,并询问委员会将采取什么行动,”乔治城大学麦克多诺商学院会计学副教授杰森·施洛策说。

That would be a plausible outcome given SpaceX is currently worth roughly one-third more than Tesla, but would ultimately depend on the transaction’s structure. If the provisions are triggered, then the operational milestones are disregarded and Musk’s payout is calculated using Tesla’s market value in the deal. That means that if Tesla is valued at $2 trillion in the merger — the first market-cap milestone — Musk would unlock shares with a net value of more than $6 billion. Tesla is currently worth about $1.5 trillion.“Whether these change-in-control provisions technically trigger will depend on how the deal is structured, but shareholders on both sides should assume his incentives point toward a high headline valuation and ask what the committees will do about it,” said Jason Schloetzer, an associate professor of accounting at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

根据目前的方案,马斯克在五年内不得出售奖励所得股份,但这也受控制权变更事件例外条款的约束。加速归属对马斯克来说,一个更大的利好可能来自其2018年特斯拉薪酬奖励的加速归属。

Under the current package, Musk can’t sell the shares from the award for five years, but that’s also subject to exceptions for change-in-control events. Accelerated VestingAn even bigger benefit for Musk could come from the accelerated vesting of his 2018 Tesla compensation award.

马斯克最初的“登月”薪酬方案授予他约3.04亿份期权,以特斯拉达到特定市值和运营里程碑为条件,所有这些里程碑均已达成。马斯克和董事会今年早些时候协商了一份实施方案,允许他以净额结算方式行使期权,减少了他为支付税款和行权成本而筹集现金的需求。作为回报,他获得的约2.86亿股股份将在2028年1月前不予归属,作为他留任公司的额外激励。但如果发生控制权变更,这些股份将立即归属。此外,归属后,这些股份还受五年持有期限制。

Musk’s original “moonshot” pay package gave him about 304 million options subject to Tesla meeting certain market-cap and operational milestones, all of which were accomplished. Musk and the board negotiated an implementation package earlier this year that allowed him to net-settle the options, reducing his need for cash to pay taxes and exercise costs. In return, the roughly 286 million shares he received won’t vest until January 2028 as an added incentive for him to stay at the company. But if there’s a change-in-control, those shares vest immediately. Additionally, after vesting, those shares are subject to a five-year holding period.

但该协议在控制权变更事件中规定了一些例外情况,可能也允许马斯克更早出售这些股份。这些股份目前价值超过1100亿美元,因尚未归属,未计入彭博亿万富翁指数中马斯克的当前净资产计算。

But the agreement provides for some exceptions in a change-of-control event, potentially allowing Musk to sell them earlier too. The shares are currently worth more than $110 billion, and are excluded from Musk’s current net worth calculation on Bloomberg’s wealth index because they haven’t yet vested.

SpaceX薪酬方案 马斯克在SpaceX还有两份薪酬方案,不太可能受到任何交易影响。这家火箭与人工智能公司授予他最多13亿股限制性股份,取决于市值里程碑以及与火星人类殖民地和其规划中的太空数据中心算力相关的运营里程碑。董事会可调整市值里程碑以反映任何并购,在SpaceX收购马斯克的人工智能初创公司xAI后便曾如此调整。这表明若发生特斯拉合并,董事会届时也会再次调整,以免交易人为地让这些目标更容易达成。

SpaceX Compensation Musk also has two compensation packages at SpaceX that are less likely to be affected by any deal. The rocket and artificial intelligence company awarded him up to 1.3 billion restricted shares dependent on market capitalisation milestones as well as operational milestones tied to a human colony on Mars and the computing power of its planned space-based data centers. The market-cap milestones can be adjusted by the board to account for any mergers or acquisitions, which it did after SpaceX bought Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI. That suggests the board would again adjust them in the event of a Tesla merger, so that the deal doesn’t make achieving those goals artificially easier.

但董事会可能面临压力,为其创始人设计另一份薪酬方案,鉴于马斯克大部分特斯拉薪酬方案被没收,且缺乏与特斯拉传统业务线挂钩的明确目标。施洛策表示:“考虑到两家公司授予超大规模股权包的历史,这似乎是板上钉钉的事。合并后公司的董事会将面临一个熟悉的论点,即需要新的授予来保持马斯克的投入度。”

But there could be pressure on the board to craft another compensation package for its founder, given the forfeiture of most of his Tesla compensation package and the lack of explicit goals for Musk that would be tied to Tesla’s traditional business lines. That “would seem a foregone conclusion, given the history of both companies in granting very large equity packages,” said Schloetzer. “The combined company’s board would face the familiar argument that new awards are needed to keep Musk engaged.”

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