东京——据《日经新闻》周四报道，日本央行将在定于10月29日至30日举行的政策会议上维持其关键利率在1.25%的水平不变。央行将在会上评估上个月加息所带来的影响。
TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan will hold its key interest rate steady at 1.25% at its policy meeting scheduled for Oct. 29-30, Nikkei learned on Thursday. The central bank will monitor the impact of increasing the rate at its meeting last month.
日本央行可能会表示，剔除暂时性波动后的实际通胀率已基本达到其设定的2%的目标水平。在下周的会议之后，央行将重点关注如何将通胀率稳定在2%的水平，并同时考虑何时再次加息。
The BOJ is likely to signal that underlying inflation, which excludes temporary fluctuations, has effectively reached the policy board's target of 2%. Following next week's meeting, the BOJ will focus on keeping inflation stable at 2% as it assesses when to raise the rate again.
预计日本央行会维持当前的利率政策，其由9名成员组成的政策委员会中的大多数成员都支持这一决定。
The BOJ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged, with a majority of its nine-member Policy Board likely to support the decision.
在9月份加息后的新闻发布会上，行长上田和夫指出，通胀率大幅超过央行目标的风险增加是可能导致再次加息的一个因素。不过，在央行内部，持这种观点的人目前仍属于少数。
At a news conference after the September meeting, when rates were raised, Gov. Kazuo Ueda cited a sharp increase in the risk of inflation significantly overshooting the BOJ's target as one scenario that could prompt another rate increase. Such views on an inflation overshoot are currently in the minority within the central bank.
一位日本央行高级官员表示：“除非出现紧急情况，否则短期内再次加息的可能性不大。”另一位官员则表示：“我们目前正处于评估9月份加息所带来的影响的阶段。”日本央行将在10月的会议上发布《经济活动与物价展望》季度报告。
"Another rate rise in quick succession is unlikely unless there is some kind of emergency," one senior BOJ official said. Another said, "We are at the stage of assessing the impact of the September rate increase." The BOJ will release its quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report at the October meeting.
该报告很可能会显示，实际通胀率与央行设定的2%目标“保持一致”。那些主张加息的“鹰派”成员已经表示实际通胀率已经达到了2%，而其他成员也认为通胀率大约在2%左右。
That report is likely to signal that the underlying inflation rate is "consistent" with the central bank's 2% target. Hawkish board members who favor rate increases have already expressed the view that underlying inflation has reached 2%, while other members have also said it is around 2%.
实际通胀率是日本央行在决定是否加息时重点关注的关键指标之一。在10月16日的新闻发布会上，上田和夫强调，如果实际通胀率进一步上升，将是“不可接受的”。
Underlying inflation is one of the key indicators to which the BOJ pays attention when deciding whether to raise interest rates. At a press conference on Oct. 16, Ueda stressed that it would be "unacceptable" for underlying inflation to rise further.
宣称潜在通胀率达到 2% 并不会自动触发加息，但这将使日本央行能够更灵活地应对通胀上行风险而加息。
Declaring that underlying inflation is at 2% would not automatically trigger a rate rise, but it would make it easier for the BOJ to flexibly raise rates in response to inflation upside risks.
日本央行的加息节奏曾约为六个月一次，但今年加快了步伐，央行在 6 月和 9 月连续加息。
The pace of the BOJ rate increases had been once in about six months, but the pace accelerated this year as the central bank raised rates in June and again in September.
据东短研究等机构统计，截至周四，隔夜指数掉期市场隐含 10 月加息概率为 4%，而 12 月加息概率已达约 80%。市场预期日本央行将在明年 1 月的议息会议上决定进一步加息。
According to Totan Research and others, the overnight index swap market priced in a 4% probability of an October rate rise as of Thursday, while the probability for December reached about 80%. The market expects the BOJ will decide on an additional rate increase by its January meeting next year.
海外局势也将影响日本央行的加息路径。随着全球通胀压力累积，许多市场参与者预计，美联储将在 10 月 27 日至 28 日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上维持利率不变，随后在 12 月的会议上加息。
Developments overseas will also influence the BOJ's rate-rise scenario. With inflation pressures building globally, many market participants expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 27-28, before raising rates at its subsequent meeting in December.