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澳大利亚财长警告增长放缓、失业率上升Australia's treasurer warns of softer growth, higher unemployment

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2026年6月18日,澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯在悉尼与财政部长吉姆·查默斯共同出席新闻发布会并发表讲话。路透社/霍莉·亚当斯Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks during a press conference with Treasurer Jim Chalmers, in Sydney, Australia, June 18, 2026. REUTERS/Hollie Adams

澳大利亚财长吉姆·查尔默斯将警告称,随着利率维持高位且通胀顽固,经济增长将放缓、失业率将上升,路透社周四审阅的一份演讲摘录显示。

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will warn of softer economic growth and higher unemployment as interest rates remain high and inflation proves stubborn, according to excerpts of a speech that was reviewed by Reuters on Thursday.

查尔默斯将于周五在悉尼出席花旗A50经济论坛并发表演讲。

Chalmers is due to deliver an address at the Citi A50 Economic Forum in Sydney on Friday. Here are some details:

以下是一些细节:财政部正在为12月发布的中期预算更新修订经济预测,查尔默斯表示:“更高的通胀给人们带来压力,更紧的货币政策正在拖累国内活动,我们可以在劳动力市场的放缓中看到这一点。”

查尔默斯表示:“更高的利率和更高的通胀可能意味着增长放缓和失业率略有上升。”

他补充说,不过,迄今为止经济的一个积极方面是企业投资的韧性,与5月的预期相比,企业投资可能增长超过一倍,今年将增长超过5%。

The Treasury was in the process of revising its economic forecasts for its mid-year budget update due in December, Chalmers said "Higher inflation is putting people under pressure, tighter monetary policy is weighing on domestic activity and we can see that in the softening of the labour market," Chalmers said "Higher interest rates and higher inflation are likely to mean softer growth and slightly higher unemployment," he said However, he added that one positive so far in the economy has been the resilience in business investment, which could more than double compared with expectations in May and rise more than 5% this year The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates four times this year to 4.6%, but underlying inflation has remained stuck at 3.6% for months, with higher global oil prices threatening to further fuel price pressures The unemployment rate hit a five-year high of 4.7% in September, a year ahead of the RBA's own expectations.

澳大利亚储备银行今年已四次加息至4.6%,但基础通胀已数月停滞在3.6%,全球油价上涨可能进一步助长价格压力。

失业率在9月升至五年高点4.7%,比储备银行自身预期提前了一年。

市场暗示,储备银行下月第五次加息至4.85%的可能性为64%。

Markets imply a 64% chance that the RBA could raise rates a fifth time next month to 4.85%

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