Israel is gearing up for an election on Oct. 27 that will effectively be a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister. This will be the first national ballot since the assault by Hamas militants on Oct. 7, 2023, the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

Netanyahu’s accountability for that security failure and his handling of the unresolved regional wars that followed have dominated the election campaign. In recent weeks he’s denied reports that he was forewarned of Hamas’ attack by officials in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Israel has always had coalition governments as no political party has ever won a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Polls suggest that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the main opposition will be able to reach the 61-seat threshold. That could lead to a minority government that leans on the support of external parties, a cross-bloc national unity government, or even another election to try to deliver a decisive outcome.

Netanyahu’s Likud joined forces with right-wing and Orthodox Jewish parties after the 2022 election, resulting in the country’s most nationalist, religious cabinet ever. The five core coalition parties hold 60 seats in the Knesset. They’re backed by a sixth party, United Torah Judaism, which withdrew from the government earlier this year but continued to provide support on key votes with its seven seats.

This government is the first in almost four decades to serve a full four-year term, but it has lost popular support since the last election, according to polls. It’s been criticized over the failure to prevent the Oct. 7 assault, as well as its refusal to take responsibility for the disaster and to establish a state commission of inquiry to investigate the breach. The government has also come under fire for the mounting toll of multifront wars against Hamas in Gaza, the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, and Iran, and an inability to translate military force into long-term stability on any of these fronts.

Public discontent has been further fueled by the government’s drive to weaken the courts and centralize power. Just days before the Knesset’s pre-election recess, the coalition pushed through a series of controversial laws that perpetuated draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men — despite warnings of military manpower shortages, stripped the attorney general’s authority, tightened government control over the media, and expanded options for gender segregation in academia.

Mainstream media polls published in October suggest that Netanyahu’s ruling coalition is locked in a tight race with a four-party opposition bloc led by Israel’s former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. As of Oct. 21, the three most recent surveys showed the opposition averaging 53 seats versus 51 for Netanyahu’s alliance.

The bloc referred to as the opposition is a mix of four centrist, right- and left-leaning parties: Eisenkot’s Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats. They share an antipathy toward Netanyahu and aim to replace him.

Even if these parties manage to reach the 61-seat threshold, their political differences could stifle coherent policy making. Several factions inside this bloc share ideological ties with Likud, although they’ve shunned Netanyahu for years. Their refusal to align with him initially stemmed from his 2019 indictment for alleged corruption — charges Netanyahu denies — and later from his failure to take responsibility for the Oct. 7 security breach.

Mainstream polls suggest that two Israeli-Arab parties and a small, recently emerged independent party called The Reservists could win a total of 16 seats. In theory, they could hold the keys to the opposition reaching a majority in the Knesset.

But the Israeli-Arab parties are highly unlikely to be included in any government. They’ve become political pariahs since the Oct. 7 attack due to their opposition to Israel’s military campaigns, their support for Palestinian statehood and their refusal to acknowledge Hamas as a terrorist organization.

The 77-year-old Netanyahu has served as Israel’s prime minister for almost two decades across six non-consecutive terms, first taking office in 1996. Eisenkot, 66, is the main challenger who could stand between him and another term.

In head-to-head poll matchups, Eisenkot has been outperforming Netanyahu on the question of who’s best suited to serve as prime minister. Eisenkot is viewed as a plain-speaking centrist who wouldn’t make concessions on security but would respect democratic institutions without prioritizing religious and nationalist causes. He launched his party, whose name means “straight” or “honest” in Hebrew, last year.

Security is at the top of many voters’ list of concerns as Israel continues to grapple with the aftermath of the Oct. 7 assault.

Netanyahu’s pitch to the public is that he’s still the best person to protect Israel from its enemies. He has dramatically overhauled Israel’s long-standing military doctrine, moving away from a reactive “quiet-for-quiet” stance in which Israel maintained ceasefires until attacked. Instead, the country has embraced a highly aggressive preemptive strategy rooted in the Talmudic dictum: “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill them first.”This shift is evident in Israel’s strikes on Iran, continuous operations to neutralize threats in Lebanon despite formal ceasefires, the seizure of buffer zones in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria, and the construction of a new barrier wall along Israel’s eastern border.

For the most part, Netanyahu’s rivals haven’t objected to the change in strategy. But they have criticized his failure to deliver the “total victory” promised against Iran and its regional proxies. Iran hasn’t capitulated; Hamas, while weakened, still dominates the Palestinian-controlled area of Gaza; and Hezbollah militants are still capable of attacking northern Israel from Lebanon.

There is considerable overlap in their policies. Both favor military action as a means of ensuring Israel’s national security. But Eisenkot has argued that he would pursue a more focused military strategy. He’s also said that military advances such as the buffer zones should be leveraged to make diplomatic gains.

Netanyahu’s position on Iran is that toppling the regime there is crucial to ensuring it doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon. Eisenkot disagrees, saying that the focus should be on neutralizing the Islamic Republic’s atomic program rather than regime change.

Both men are opposed to a Palestinian state and have vowed to disarm Hamas. Eisenkot has pledged to end Hamas’ control of Gaza within 18 months if he becomes prime minister, either by implementing US President Donald Trump’s plan to demilitarize the territory and rebuild its infrastructure, or through military action.

When it comes to the West Bank, Netanyahu has expressed limited criticism of the attacks by some extremist Israeli settlers on Palestinians and their homes. He and far-right members of his government have praised the growth of new settlements. Eisenkot has condemned the settler violence, pledged to restore law and order, and said that illegal settlements in the areas administered by the Palestinian Authority should be evacuated. He’s also advocated to improve living conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank by bringing in external investment and opening up their access to Israel’s labor market.

— The Trump factor Netanyahu has played up his relationship with Trump, calling the US leader “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” while Trump has now endorsed the Israeli prime minister for reelection. But their once-tight bond has loosened in recent months over Netanyahu’s failure to toe the US line on Gaza and Lebanon. In both places, the US has pushed Israel toward negotiated arrangements and military restraint.

Israel has been excluded from negotiations that aim to find a permanent resolution to the Iran war. That’s raised concerns in Israel that if the US and Iran do eventually reach a peace settlement, this won’t fully neutralize the threat that the Islamic Republic poses to the country. While Trump has insisted that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, at one point he suggested that it should be able to have some ballistic missiles “because some other people have some.”Netanyahu’s opponents have painted him as Trump’s puppet. Even his own national security minister, hardliner Itamar Ben Gvir of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, has accused him of ceding to US pressure that constrains Israel’s military actions.

— Military service exemption Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that the decades-long exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from mandatory military service was inequitable. The decision was widely disregarded by Netanyahu’s government as he sought to keep his coalition intact. This angered many Israelis, hundreds of thousands of whom have been called to serve in the reserves as the military has undertaken multiple offensives.

While Netanyahu supported a bill to reinstate the exemption, it never passed due to public and political backlash. As part of a pre-election legislative blitz, the Knesset approved a law that temporarily suspends the arrest of ultra-Orthodox men who evade the military draft, although this was later overturned by the Supreme Court. In parallel, a Basic Law declaring Torah study a constitutional value was approved, providing a legal justification for a future attempt to again exempt ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

— Judicial reforms Some Israelis believe their country’s future as a liberal democracy is at stake in this election. Soon after coming into power, Netanyahu’s cabinet launched an effort to overhaul and weaken the judiciary, prompting protests led by business and tech leaders. The government has passed laws increasing the role of politicians in the police watchdog and judicial selection process, while simultaneously expanding the jurisdiction of religious rabbinical courts. Hours before its pre-election dissolution, the Knesset approved a bill that renders the attorney general’s legal opinions non-binding and allows the government to bar her from court whenever her position contradicts that of the cabinet. Petitions challenging the law have been filed with the Supreme Court and a hearing is scheduled to take place prior to the legislation entering into force in January.

Netanyahu’s coalition also pushed through a law establishing a new regulatory body that has licensing and sanctioning powers over independent media and is controlled by political appointees. This law was frozen by the Supreme Court in response to a petition arguing that it severely harms freedom of expression and the press.

— The economy In addition to resentment about the ultra-Orthodox who don’t serve in the military, there are concerns about the community’s low participation in the labor market. Economists and policymakers have warned of growing fiscal pressure from this expanding demographic’s reliance on state allowances and subsidies. There are also fears about a “brain drain.”In recent years, there’s been a surge in the number of Israelis choosing to leave the country due to concerns about war and political turmoil. Many of them are doctors, workers in the technology industry and other high earners.

Those seeking a change of leadership argue that relying so heavily on military rather than diplomatic solutions is harming the economy. On top of the strain of defense spending, workers are repeatedly forced into uniform for reserve duty. In some Western countries, Israel has become a pariah whose products and personnel are increasingly shunned.