由于高通胀对服务业造成拖累，德国私营部门的增长放缓幅度超出了预期。
Germany’s private sector slowed more than anticipated as high inflation weighed on the services industry.
标普全球的综合采购经理指数从前一个月的53.8降至10月的52.8，但仍保持在区分扩张与收缩的50分水岭上方。此前分析师预计该指数会小幅跌至53.4。
S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.8 in October from 53.8 the previous month, remaining above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Analysts had anticipated a smaller dip to 53.4.
不过，该指数已连续第四个月保持在增长区间，其中制造业分项指数意外升至54.2。服务业则下滑至51.7。
The index managed to stay in growth territory for a fourth straight month, however, with the manufacturing gauge surprisingly increasing to 54.2. Services slipped to 51.7.
标普全球市场情报经济学家菲尔·史密斯周五在一份声明中表示：“10月份的PMI初值结果令人鼓舞地显示，德国各地商业活动持续回升，尽管增长放缓凸显出这个欧洲最大经济体的复苏依然脆弱。”服务业新业务增长陷入停滞，突显出“高通胀和不确定性对需求造成的持续不利影响”。在多年落后于更广泛的欧元区之后，德国正在复苏。推动其重新扩张的是政府对基础设施和军事的大规模支出，以及人工智能投资。政府最近将2026年的增长预测上调至1.3%。
“October’s flash PMI results encouragingly showed a sustained upturn in business activity across Germany, although a slowdown in growth underscored that the recovery in the euro zone’s largest economy remains fragile,” Phil Smith, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said Friday in a statement. A stalling of new business growth in the service sector highlighted “ongoing headwinds to demand from elevated inflation and uncertainty.”Germany is healing after years of lagging behind the wider euro area. Driving its renewed expansion are large government outlays on infrastructure and the military, as well as AI investment. The government recently lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%.
德国央行在其最新的月度报告中警告称，第三季度经济出现停滞，该季度可能出现了下滑。但德国央行预计，今年最后三个月的产出将“显着”增长。
There was probably a dip in the third quarter, according to the Bundesbank, which warned in its latest monthly report of stagnation during that period. But Germany’s central bank sees output rising “noticeably” in the final three months of the year.
然而，来自伊朗战争的风险依然存在。此外，债券市场的紧张局势也随之出现，推高了借贷成本。自中东冲突爆发以来已两次加息的欧洲中央银行，预计也将进一步收紧货币政策以压低通胀。
Risks from the Iran war linger, however. And they’ve been joined by tensions in the bond market that are pushing up borrowing costs. The European Central Bank, which has raised interest rates twice since the fighting in the Middle East broke out, is also expected to tighten monetary policy further to bring down inflation.
*史密斯表示：“虽然在出口销售持续增长以及国防和基础设施开支增加的推动下，商品生产商的商业状况继续改善，但成本压力的再度飙升抑制了整个行业的预期。”
“Whilst goods producers continued to see business conditions improve, aided by sustained growth in export sales and the filtering through of increased defence and infrastructure spending, a renewed surge in cost pressures has dampened expectations across the sector,” Smith said.
由于PMI在月初发布且善于揭示经济趋势和拐点，因此备受市场关注。作为衡量产出变化广度而非深度的指标，商业调查有时很难直接映射到季度GDP上。
PMIs are closely watched by markets as they arrive early in the month and are good at revealing trends and turning points in an economy. A measure of breadth of changes in output rather than depth, business surveys can sometimes be difficult to map directly to quarterly GDP.