
一项调查显示,由于能源驱动的成本上升以及在政治和财政压力下法国经济重新陷入萎缩,10月欧元区私营部门的增长放缓至四个月来的最低水平。
Growth across the euro zone's private sector slowed to its weakest pace in four months in October, driven by an energy-driven rise in costs and a renewed contraction in France amid political and financial pressures, a survey showed.
标普全球公布的欧元区综合PMI初值显示,产出指数从9月的53.1降至10月的51.9,创下自6月以来的最低纪录,并且低于路透社调查中所有预测人士对小幅降至52.7的预期。PMI读数高于50.0即表明经济处于扩张。
The S&P Global Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index fell to 51.9 in October from September's 53.1, its lowest reading since June and lower than all forecasts in a Reuters poll which had predicted a modest dip to 52.7. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates growth.
标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示:“更广泛经济放缓的关键在于本月观察到的通胀压力进一步加剧。投入成本再次急剧上升,受能源价格上涨推动,制造业的增长率飙升,导致企业为了保护利润率而提高销售价格。”受中东战争的部分影响,由于能源、燃料和运输成本上升,投入成本连续第二个月加速上涨。尽管如此,企业提高销售价格的速度慢于9月,这表明利润率受到一定程度的压缩。
"Key to the broader slowdown is the further escalation of inflationary pressures seen during the month," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Input costs are rising sharply again, the rate of increase surging in manufacturing on the back of higher energy prices, causing firms to push selling prices higher in order to protect margins." Input costs accelerated for the second consecutive month linked to higher energy, fuel and transport costs in part due to the Middle East war. Despite this, firms raised their selling prices at a slower pace than in September, suggesting some margin compression.
威廉姆森补充道:“较高的利率也开始产生负面影响,抑制了需求。10月PMI初值所显示的持续增长和依然高企的通货膨胀,可能会进一步引发对欧洲央行采取更激进政策紧缩的猜测。”
"Higher interest rates are also starting to take a toll, dampening demand, and the picture of sustained growth and stubbornly elevated inflation from the October flash PMI will likely add to further speculation of more aggressive policy tightening from the ECB," Williamson added.
本月早些时候的一项路透社调查发现,欧洲央行将在下周把存款利率维持在2.50%不变,但由于通胀率接近其2%目标的两倍,将在12月将其上调25个基点。
The European Central Bank will hold its deposit rate at 2.50% next week but raise it by 25 basis points in December as inflation runs nearly double its 2% target, a Reuters poll found earlier this month.
调查显示,欧元区商业信心降至五个月来的最低点,其中制造业的乐观情绪下降最为剧烈。
Business confidence in the euro zone fell to a five-month low, the survey showed, with optimism dropping most sharply in manufacturing.
饱受财政压力和政治动荡困扰的法国以其悲观情绪脱颖而出。其PMI表明经济正在萎缩,商业信心创下了除大流行时期外自2012年以来的最低水平。
France, beset by financial pressures and political turbulence, stood out for its pessimism. Its PMI pointed to economic contraction and business confidence hit its lowest since 2012 outside the pandemic period.
最近几周,由于投资者对该国修复财政能力担忧,法国政府借款成本飙升,而在春季总统大选之前,一波又一波的街头抗议活动也抬高了政治热度。
French government borrowing costs have jumped in recent weeks on investor concerns about the country's ability to repair its finances, while waves of street protests have raised the political temperature ahead of a presidential election in the spring.
作为衡量需求的关键指标,新订单在当前的四个月扩张期中以最慢的速度增长,制造业和服务业均仅录得温和增长。新出口订单连续第三个月上升,在经历了近四年半的持续逐月下降之后,这是一个令人鼓舞的信号,且增长率超过了整体新业务的增长率。
New orders — a key gauge of demand — grew at their slowest rate in the current four-month expansion sequence, with both manufacturing and services posting only modest gains. New export orders rose for a third consecutive month, an encouraging sign after nearly 4-1/2 years of continuous monthly declines, and the rate of increase outpaced that of overall new business.
服务业PMI初值从9月的53.0降至两个月低点51.7——路透社的调查此前预测为52.5。计入综合读数的制造业产出指数从53.6降至四个月低点52.4。头条工厂数字从52.9降至52.4。
The preliminary services PMI fell to a two-month low of 51.7 from 53.0 in September - the Reuters poll had predicted 52.5. A manufacturing output index which feeds into the composite reading dropped to a four-month low of 52.4 from 53.6. The headline factory number fell to 52.4 from 52.9.
招聘几乎陷入停滞,在经历前两个月的微弱增长后,就业人数几乎没有增加。服务业的就业创造放缓至五个月低点,制造业就业人数在经历了两个月的改善后略有下降。
Hiring came close to a standstill with employment barely rising after slight gains in the prior two months. Services sector job creation eased to a five-month low and manufacturing payrolls edged down after two months of improvement.