10月23日,英镑兑欧元小幅走高,触及17个月新高,并有望连续第四周上涨。此前公布的英国数据喜忧参半,令市场对英国经济前景的判断出现分歧。
Oct 23 - Sterling edged up to a fresh 17-month high versus the euro on Friday, on track for its fourth straight weekly rise, after UK data provided mixed signals about the British economy.
标普全球英国综合采购经理人指数初值10月升至53.1,高于经济学家预期,也高于9月的52.0。
The preliminary S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 53.1 in October, higher than economists’ forecasts and up from September's 52.0.
与之相反,英国消费者9月缩减了购物支出,而另一项数据显示,10月消费者信心大幅下滑。
Conversely, British consumers reined in their shopping in September, while separate data showed confidence levels plunged in October.
欧元兑英镑报83.70便士,基本持平,此前一度触及83.62便士,为2025年5月以来最低水平。
The euro was roughly unchanged at 83.70 pence after reaching 83.62 pence, the lowest level since May 2025.
美国银行表示,并非所有做空欧元的交易都提供同样的机会,认为欧元兑英镑的定价更为合理,并倾向于做空欧元兑日元和欧元兑加元。
BofA said that not all bets against the euro offer the same opportunity, arguing the euro/pound is better priced and that it favours euro/yen and euro/Canadian dollar shorts.
对法国爆发新一轮社会动荡的担忧以及高企的能源价格令欧元承压,而强劲的英国数据和财政担忧缓解近期则为英镑提供支撑。
Fears of new social unrest in France and elevated energy prices weighed on the single currency while strong UK data and easing fiscal concerns have recently lent support to the pound.
英国首相安迪·伯纳姆周五表示,其政府定于下周发布的首份年度预算声明将为企业提供“成长所需的喘息空间”。
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Friday his government's first annual budget statement due next week will give businesses "breathing space to grow".
凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示:“采购经理人指数所反映的基调强于近期零售销售和消费者信心数据。”
“The PMIs have a stronger tone than the recent retail sales and consumer confidence data,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said.
他补充说:“综合来看,整体经济似乎仍能较好地抵御能源价格上涨和借贷成本上升的影响,而通胀上升的最糟糕阶段尚未到来。”
“Taken together, the overall economy still seems to be weathering higher energy prices and higher borrowing costs well, and the worst of the rise in inflation is yet to come,” he added.
英镑兑走强的美元下跌0.15%,至1.3381美元,此前周四曾触及1.3418美元,为9月16日以来最高水平。
Sterling fell 0.15% to $1.3381 against a strengthening dollar after reaching $1.3418 on Thursday, its highest level since September 16.
美元周五上涨,此前一周美元走软,因对人工智能投资热潮的疑虑助长了对美联储将更偏鸽派的预期。一些经济学家对英国经济前景仍持谨慎态度。
The greenback rose on Friday after losing ground during the week as doubts about the AI investment boom fuelled expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Some economists remained cautious about the UK economic outlook.
贝伦贝格经济学家安德鲁·威沙特表示:“9月零售销售量下滑以及10月消费者信心骤降,可能是伊朗战争对消费者支出长期以来的挤压终于开始显现的首批迹象。”他随后指出,支出走弱凸显了加息带来的下行风险。
“The drop in retail sales volumes in September and slump in consumer confidence in October could be the first signs that the long-awaited squeeze on consumer spending from the Iran war is materialising,” Andrew Wishart, an economist at Berenberg, said before flagging that weaker spending highlights the downside risk from rate hikes.