BANGKOK -- Asia has demonstrated resilience with solid economic growth in the face of an energy supply shock and a worsening cost-of-living crisis, but that strength is proving increasingly uneven as some countries miss out on the AI boom and other tailwinds.

That is among key takeaways from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings that wrapped up Sunday after a week in Bangkok.

During the gathering, the IMF projected global growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027 in its flagship World Economic Outlook with the latter revised up 0.2 percentage point from its spring forecast. For Asia and the Pacific, it projected growth of 4.8% this year and 4.4% in 2027, up 0.4 and 0.1 percentage point, respectively.

surge in artificial intelligence investment along with fiscal buffers that allowed governments to support households amid elevated energy prices, helped economies weather the shocks. But the headline figures mask significant differences across the region.

"It is indeed a very differentiated picture across the region that is underpinning this resilience," Nada Choueiri, deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, told Nikkei Asia on the sidelines of the gathering.

The divide was evident across three major themes that dominated discussions in Bangkok: AI, climate and access to private capital.

AI: Countries outside supply chain 'left out of boom' Demand for semiconductors and related equipment, fueled by a surge in data center construction and other AI infrastructure, has lifted exports across several Asian economies. South Korea, Taiwan, India, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore are among the main beneficiaries. The boom has also provided a lift to capital markets in some of these economies.

Choueiri says that economies outside of the AI supply chain will likely not benefit from the AI boom in the future.

On the other hand, economies "not really integrated in the exports and production of technology that is supporting AI are not benefiting from the AI boom and they will likely continue not benefiting from it," said Choueiri.

Against a range of economic pressures, the IMF revised down 2026 growth forecasts for the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Fiji and Papua New Guinea.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva made a similar point, saying that behind the economic figures, "there are wide divergences among countries." Along with economies closely integrated in the AI supply chain, energy exporters not affected by wars are "doing better," she said. Those taking the biggest hit are "low-income countries in fragile and conflict-affected states," particularly energy importers and those "left out of the technology boom."

Climate: Philippine central bank chief warns of 'Godzilla El Nino' The annual meetings, hosted by Thailand for the first time in 35 years, came two weeks after Bangkok and surrounding areas were hit by serious floods Beyond flooding, droughts and growing water stress are creating economic strains across the region, disrupting commodity and fertilizer production as well as transportation.

Women use foam boxes to carry groceries along a flooded street in Bangkok on Sept. 28. The IMF meetings were held about two weeks after the flooding hit the city and surrounding areas.

"We are holding our breath. We have to be prepared for the worst," said Philippine central bank Gov. Eli Remolona Jr. during a session at the annual meetings, as the country braces for what he called a " Godzilla El Nino " early next year.

The IMF has warned that past El Nino episodes have pushed up food and commodity prices while weighing on economic activity, particularly in low-income economies.

IMF Deputy Director Rupa Duttagupta highlighted that along with the "immediate destruction of infrastructure there is the much worse consequence of human loss." There could be country-specific effects including the "loss of agricultural productivity or disruption of energy supply," she said, adding that "in terms of policy priorities, this would mean rebuilding fiscal buffers so that you can invest in climate-resilient infrastructure," as well as reducing energy intensity and "increasing the share of renewable energy."

Woochong Um, CEO of the nonprofit Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, said increasingly frequent extreme weather events are forcing governments to take climate risks more seriously, both in terms of mitigation and adaptation. "Once-in-100-year events are happening every year, and it's something that we thought could happen in the next generation but is happening now," he said, stressing that "adaptation is urgent."

Um said project developers and planners are increasingly incorporating climate-related disaster risks into their planning so they can "proactively address it before the real crisis hits." Philippine central bank Gov. Eli Remolona Jr. warned about the dangers of a "Godzilla El Nino" during a panel at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Oct. 14.

Private capital: World Bank says significant funding gaps remain The uneven ability to tap private capital was another challenge highlighted during the meetings, particularly as governments contend with limited fiscal space and large infrastructure needs. "The competition for long-term capital has become bigger," Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody's Ratings, said in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

"You have now governments wanting to borrow more ... You have the AI sort of capex needing to borrow more. You have climate, resilience building needing the capital, and then you have infrastructure for growth," she pointed out. "It's actually going to be harder and harder, I think, to mobilize private capital for that fourth category," Sheth said. Roughly $329 billion in private capital has been mobilized by the World Bank Group over the past five years, according to Ufuk Akcigit, the bank's deputy chief economist and director of private markets.

World Bank data also shows wide differences in private capital expected to be mobilized alongside its commitments across Asian economies.

The figure for India totals nearly $36 billion, compared with substantially smaller amounts for Sri Lanka, Nepal, Cambodia, the Philippines and Pakistan.

World Bank Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer Paschal Donohoe said significant funding gaps remain, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses and "very large infrastructure projects actually taking place."

Asian Development Bank director general of the strategy, policy, and partnership department Xinning Jia, center, speaks during a session of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings on Oct. 13. Xinning Jia, director general of strategy, policy and partnerships at the Asian Development Bank, told Nikkei Asia that investor interest exists, but countries differ in their ability to turn that interest into actual investment.

The most important thing for multilateral development banks like ADB is "to really bridge that possibility into opportunity," she said, pointing to the need for appropriate policies, legislation and institutional capacity. "The private sector will not have patience to wait and see." For fragile economies and small island states, multilateral development banks may initially need to help establish markets, including through concessional financing, she added.