
世界财政部长们上周在曼谷聚会,讨论全球经济面临的最大风险 — — 债务、人工智能和贸易失衡名列前茅。与此同时,长期以来一直是这些讨论中主要风险因素的中国,已不再是担忧名单的首位。
The world's finance chiefs spent last week in Bangkok debating the biggest risk facing the global economy — with debt, artificial intelligence and trade imbalances topping the list. Meanwhile, China, long a main risk factor in these discussions, was no longer at the top of the worry list.
- 金融危机警示曼谷会议是自2018年以来首次在亚洲举行的此类会议,当时会议在印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行。泰国上次主办此类会议是在1991年,距泰铢与美元脱钩引发亚洲金融危机仅六年。
- Financial crisis watch The Bangkok meetings were the first in Asia since 2018, when the gathering was held in Bali, Indonesia. Thailand last hosted in 1991, six years before the unpegging of the baht from the U.S. dollar set off the Asian financial crisis.
快进到2026年,全球失衡、人工智能繁荣或“全球北方”地区巨额债务积累等任何因素都可能引发下一场金融危机,波士顿大学全球发展政策中心主任凯文·加拉格尔在参加完国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议后,在北京接受记者采访时如此表示。
Fast-forward to 2026, and anything from global imbalances to the AI boom or a massive debt buildup in the "Global North" could trigger the next financial crisis, said Kevin Gallagher, director of Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, who spoke with reporters in Beijing after attending the IMF and World Bank meetings.
国际货币基金组织对有望从全球人工智能供应链中受益的经济体持乐观态度,如韩国、日本和中国;对那些无法受益的经济体则持悲观态度,警告称人工智能的发展正在拉大各经济体之间的差距。
The IMF was upbeat on economies positioned to benefit from the global AI supply chain, such as South Korea, Japan and China, and downbeat on those that aren't, warning that the AI build-out is widening gaps between economies.
与人工智能相关的借贷也在推高债务水平,并与政府争夺资本,进一步推高借贷成本。国际货币基金组织警告称,如果人工智能技术未能兑现其承诺的生产率提升,可能引发严重的全球经济后果。
AI-related borrowing is also pushing up debt levels and competing with governments for capital, which lifts borrowing costs further. The IMF warned that should AI technology fail to deliver the promised productivity gains, it could trigger severe global economic consequences.
加拉格尔表示,他正在关注国际货币基金组织、美联储和中国人民银行是否能够协调一致,或者最终会朝着不同方向发展,从而“使情况变得更糟”。
Gallagher said he's watching whether the IMF, the Federal Reserve and People's Bank of China can coordinate, or end up going in different directions and "make things worse."
美国财政部与基金组织在自身债务问题上存在分歧。国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示,仅靠强劲增长无法让美国走上可持续的道路,因为联邦债务已超过40万亿美元。财政部长斯科特·贝森特的顾问大卫·泽沃斯对这一警告予以驳斥。他说:“回顾他们过去预测有多混乱是件好事。” “因此,所有这些都应持保留态度。”此外,协调的迹象也寥寥无几。根据CNBC看到的座位安排,中国和美国财政官员在周四于曼谷举行的二十国集团财政部长及央行行长会议上坐得较远。
The U.S. Treasury is at odds with the Fund over its own debt. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said strong growth alone won't put the U.S. on a sustainable path, with federal debt above $40 trillion. David Zervos, a counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, dismissed the warning. "It's good to remember how messy their forecasts have been in the past," he said. "So take it all with a grain of salt." There were also few signs of coordination. Chinese and U.S. finance officials were seated at a distance at Thursday's G20 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting in Bangkok, according to a layout seen by CNBC.
中国人民银行行长潘功胜周六在国际货币和金融委员会上表示,中国支持加强基金组织对“主要发达经济体财政风险”外溢影响的监测。他表示,各国应自行解决财政赤字问题,而实现盈余的国家应提升消费和投资。
Chinese central bank Governor Pan Gongsheng told the International Monetary and Financial Committee Saturday that China supports stronger Fund monitoring of spillovers from "major advanced economies' fiscal risks." He said countries should address their own fiscal deficits, while those running surpluses should boost consumption and investment.
- 乌克兰再次成为焦点热点随着紧张局势升级,俄罗斯和乌克兰再次成为本周会议的核心焦点。俄罗斯官员也重返会议室,参加上周四在国际货币基金组织会议期间举行的二十国集团财政首脑会议。
- Ukraine re-emerges as central flashpoint Russia and Ukraine returned as a central focus of the week's meetings as tensions flared. Russian officials were also back in the room at a G20 finance chiefs' meeting on the margins of the IMF gathering last Thursday.
财政部长安东·西卢诺夫亲自出席,这是他今年第二次参加此类会议。此前,他在北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔举行的八月二十国集团会议上因遭到欧洲领导人的严厉批评而被迫退出合影拍摄。
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attended in person for the second time this year, after an August G20 session in Asheville, North Carolina, drew harsh criticism from European leaders that forced him out of participating in a group photo.
德国财政部长拉尔斯·克林贝尔重申了他对俄罗斯代表团出席的不满,他在向CNBC发表的声明中说:“假装俄罗斯正以G20的正常成员身份回归并再次坐到谈判桌前——这在我这里不会发生,其他欧洲国家也不会发生。”
German finance minister Lars Klingbeil reiterated his discontent over the Russian delegation's presence, saying in a statement to CNBC that "pretending that Russia's returning as a normal member of the G20 and sitting at the table again — that won't happen with me, and it won't happen with the other Europeans either."
周六,当西卢诺夫用俄语向小组发表讲话时,近一半的IMFC代表离开了会场。乌克兰央行行长安德里·皮什尼告诉路透社,他对众多表达对乌克兰团结的财政官员感到惊讶,称这是一个“深刻而感人的时刻”。周四晚上经过三小时会议后,七国集团宣布向乌克兰提供2.6亿欧元(3亿美元)资金,用于修复切尔诺贝利核电站的基础设施,并预计在下个月巴黎的捐助者会议上将这一数额提升至5亿欧元——这将覆盖整个项目的费用。
Nearly half of IMFC delegates walked out of the room when Siluanov was addressing the group in Russian on Saturday. Ukraine's central bank chief, Andriy Pyshnyi, told Reuters that he was surprised by the large number of finance officials who expressed solidarity with Ukraine, calling it a "deep and emotional moment." After a three-hour meeting Thursday evening, the Group of Seven announced 260 million euros ($300 million) in funding for Ukraine to repair infrastructure at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, and expect to bring that to 500 million euros — which would pay for the whole project — at a donor conference in Paris next month.
IMF警告称,公共债务上升正在压缩政府在国防等优先事项上的支出空间。
The IMF has warned that rising public debt is squeezing governments' room to spend on priorities such as defense.
- 中国处于次要地位在2018年IMF会议期间,中国曾备受关注,因为美中贸易战当时才刚刚拉开序幕。但今年,各场小组讨论和采访几乎未提及中国。
- China takes a backseat China featured prominently during the IMF meeting in 2018 as the U.S.-China trade war was just kicking off. But this year, panels and interviews had little to say about the country.
总部位于华盛顿特区的国际金融学会(Institute of International Finance)总裁兼首席执行官蒂姆·亚当斯表示,他在最近访问新加坡和曼谷期间,几乎未在交谈中提及中国。
Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based Institute of International Finance, said China has rarely come up in his conversations during recent visits to Singapore and Bangkok.
“我们本来应该就美中关系、中国对欧洲‘出口冲击2.0’的影响,以及中国对全球贸易和全球制造业的影响展开长篇讨论,”亚当斯在周五接受CNBC采访时说,“但实际上,我们几乎没有进行这样的讨论。”
"We would have had a long discussion about U.S.-China relations, China's impact on the [exports] shock 2.0 in Europe, and China's impact on global trade and global manufacturing. [But] actually, we've had very little of that," Adams told CNBC in an interview Friday.
他解释说,原因在于:美中关系似乎已经达到某种“稳定状态”,导致投资者减少了对中国作为风险的担忧。
The reason, he said: U.S.-China relations appear to have reached "some sense of stability," leading investors to pare back worries about China as a risk.
“人们认为关系是稳固的,除了长期存在的一些令人头疼的问题之外,没有明显的紧张局势,”亚当斯说。
"The perception is that the relationship is stable and solid, without much visible tension beyond the nagging set of issues that have been around for some time," Adams said.
投资者仍然不愿直接向该国投资,但他表示,他们对即将进行的中国科技IPO很感兴趣。他还提到,对中国债券有真实的需求,货币保持稳定或略微走强。
Investors remain reluctant to commit direct investment to the country, he said, but are keen on Chinese tech IPOs in the pipeline. He also cited a real appetite for Chinese bonds, with the currency stable to slightly stronger.
“这看起来更像是一种标准的正常评估,就像中国只是其他风险之一,而不是独特和特别的事物,”亚当斯说。
"It seems just more of a standard normal assessment, like China is any other risk rather than something unique and special," Adams said.