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法国动荡加剧债务危机担忧,巴黎上市股票、债券和欧元下跌French political turmoil spreads to markets as Paris-listed stocks, bonds and the euro fall

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社会动荡、政治不稳定和国家债务不断增加,周一早盘对法国资产构成压力,政府债券和巴黎上市股票承压。欧元兑美元最新下跌0.15%,兑英镑下跌0.13%。

Social unrest political instability mounting national debt weighed on French assets early on Monday, with government bonds and Paris-listed stocks under pressure. euro was last seen down 0.15% against the U.S. dollar, and was 0.13% lower against the British pound.

法国10年期国债收益率上升7个基点,尽管近期有所缓解,但仍接近数十年来的最高水平。收益率上升意味着政府在债务市场中的借贷成本增加。该国2年期和30年期国债收益率分别上升2个基点和6个基点。

French 10-year bond yield jumped 7 basis points, remaining near its highest level in decades despite some recent easing. Higher yields represent higher borrowing costs for the government in the debt market. The country's 2-year 30-year yields were up 2 basis points and 6 basis points, respectively.

股票也承受压力,周一早盘CAC 40指数下跌近1%。近年来,法国股市表现显著落后于欧洲同行 — — 尽管其约15%的收入来自国内 — — 银行板块承受特别大的压力。

Stocks are also feeling the heat, with the CAC 40 index down nearly 1% in early deals on Monday. The market has significantly underperformed its European peers in recent years — despite only around 15% of its revenues being generated domestically — with banks under particular pressure.

法国股市历来对所谓的“OAT-Bund利差”扩大敏感,该利差代表法国国债相对于德国国债的额外收益率,目前已升至自2010年代初欧洲主权债务危机以来的最高水平。法国国债收益率如今甚至超过意大利和希腊,意味着风险溢价上升。

The French stock market is historically sensitive to any widening in the so-called "OAT-Bund spread", the extra bond yield France pays over Germany, which has hit the highest level since the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of the early 2010s. French yields now also surpass those of Italy or Greece, implying higher risk.

利差扩大引发人们对企业融资成本上升的担忧,并加剧了对税收增加和监管趋紧的忧虑。法国股市还因奢侈品公司的主导地位而承压,这些公司正受到高端中国消费者支出下降的影响。加载图表...“债券市场动荡或人民起义” — — 周末,数十万人走上街头,抗议政治僵局、生活成本上升以及公共服务状况,包括学校和医疗。

Widening bond spreads raise concerns about the cost for companies to raise capital and heighten fears of higher taxes and tighter regulation. The French stock market has also struggled due to the dominance of its luxury firms, which are suffering from a downturn in high-end Chinese consumer spending. Loading chart... 'The bond markets riot or the people riot' Hundreds of thousands of people marched over the weekend in protest over political paralysis the cost of living and the state of public services, including schools and healthcare.

从巴黎到里昂和马赛的多个城市爆发大规模集会,场面一度失控:建筑和汽车被纵火,与警方发生冲突,逮捕人数超过2000人。图片:超过50万人走上街头,法国抗议演变为暴力“如果你是一名国际投资者,正在考虑是否要投资法国债券,这没有帮助,”RBC蓝湾资产管理公司市场策略主管Mike Bell周一在CNBC的《Squawk Box Europe》节目中表示。

Mass gatherings in cities from Paris to Lyon and Marseille spilled into dramatic scenes of buildings and cars set on fire, clashes with police and more than 2,000 arrests. In pictures: More than 500,000 took to the streets as France protests erupted into violence "If you're an international investor thinking about whether you want to invest in French bonds, it's not helpful," Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.

“看起来要么是债券市场动荡,要么是民众骚乱,或者两者兼有,”Bell说。

"It looks like either the bond markets riot, or the people riot, or both," Bell said.

海外投资者持有的法国债务份额正在增长,从2022年初的约48%升至2026年初的近60%,这可能意味着在风险规避环境下,债券市场波动性加大。

“法国需要做的是把财政状况理顺,他们需要提高退休年龄——如果平均寿命是84岁,你不能在62岁就退休——但如果在他们甚至还没开始讨论这个问题之前就已经出现这种情况,那么想象一下,如果他们真的试图把退休年龄提高到……我的意思是,在这里英国它是68岁的话,法国街头会发生什么,”Bell补充道。

Overseas investors hold a growing share of French debt, rising from around 48% at the start of 2022 to nearly 60% at the start of 2026, potentially meaning higher volatility in the bond market in a risk-off environment "What's needed in France is to get the fiscal position in order, they need to raise the retirement age — you can't retire at 62 if the average person's living to 84 — but if this is going on even before they start talking about that, then imagine what would happen on the streets of France if you tried to raise the retirement age to... I mean here in the U.K. it's 68," Bell added.

“在需要做出艰难抉择的时候,这让这个国家看起来不那么可治理。”预算挑战法国的基准借贷成本正触及自2002年以来的最高水平,投资者要求更高的溢价来为该国的支出融资。

"It doesn't make the country look that governable against a time when they need to be putting through hard choices." Budget challenge France's benchmark borrowing costs are touching their highest level since 2002, with investors demanding a higher premium to fund the country's spending.

主要担忧包括明年总统大选的不确定性,极右翼人物玛丽娜·勒庞在多项民意调查中领先,以及总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔纽领导的少数政府能否通过目前正在谈判中的2027年预算。

Key concerns include uncertainty over next year's presidential election, in which far-right Marine Le Pen is topping many polls and whether the minority government of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu can pass the 2027 budget currently under negotiation.

法国的预算谈判日益紧张,已经导致勒科尔纽的两位最近前任下台。

Budget negotiations are increasingly fraught in France and have toppled two of Lecornu's recent predecessors.

分析人士称,贷款方正要求实施一个强有力的财政紧缩计划,以避免债务危机,因为法国持续偏高的赤字占GDP比重和疲弱的经济增长一直在施压政府的借贷成本。

Analysts say lenders are demanding a strong program of fiscal consolidation to avert a debt crisis, as France's persistently high deficit-to-GDP ratio and weak economic growth keep pressuring government borrowing costs.

高盛高级欧洲股票策略师莎伦·贝尔周一在CNBC的《Squawk Box Europe》节目中表示:“如果没有痛苦的措施,预算赤字下降将很难实现。”

"It will be difficult to see the budget deficit come down without painful measures," Sharon Bell, senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.

“法国企业的税收很可能上涨。我认为法国的税收总体上可能会上升,财政紧缩意味着你必须要么花得更少,要么多征税。这些事情非常棘手。” “勒庞目前在民调中领先,她谈到在任期内将保持‘黄金预算[规则]’,但她并没有真正详细说明这是如何实现的,”贝尔继续说道。

"Taxes could well go up for French businesses. I think taxes may generally go up in France, fiscal consolidation means you need to either spend less or tax more. Those things are very tricky." "Le Pen, who is riding high in the polls at the moment, she's talked about keeping a 'Golden Budget [rule] during her term, but she's not really detailed how that would happen," Bell continued.

诺贝尔奖得主克鲁格曼表示,法国可能已经变得‘太大而无法拯救’“OAT-Bond利差没有收窄的原因之一是,投资者对看到任何财政紧缩和预算赤字下降持怀疑态度。”

Nobel winner Krugman says France may have become 'too big to save' "One of the reasons that OAT-Bund spreads are not coming in is because investors are skeptical that you will see any fiscal consolidation and a decline in that budget deficit."

但评级机构KBRA的主权业务高级总监肯·伊根指出,上周的拍卖显示,法国债务仍有“非常稳固的底层需求”。“总体来说,今天是更偏向避险的早晨,但法国显然正承受着一点更多的压力……市场将要问的问题是,法国从这里实际上能多容易地取得进展,”伊根在谈到即将到来的债务危机时说道。

But Ken Egan, senior director of sovereigns at ratings agency KBRA, noted auctions last week showed there remains "still very solid underlying demand for French debt." "It is a more risk-off morning generally, but France is clearly taking a little more of the pressure... The question markets will be asking is how easily France can actually make progress from here," Egan said by Looming debt crisis?

高盛的莎伦·贝尔补充说,她不认为当前情况值得欧洲中央银行进行任何紧急干预,而欧洲中央银行“不愿”使用诸如其传输保护工具之类的工具。然而,她表示,如果利差开始扰乱市场流动性,欧洲中央银行将选择使用该机制。

Goldman Sachs' Sharon Bell added that she did not believe current conditions warranted any emergency intervention by the European Central Bank, which "doesn't want" to use tools such as its Transmission Protection Instrument However, she said if spreads start to disrupt market liquidity, the ECB would opt to use the mechanism.

她补充说,这一举措在政治上将非常敏感,可能要求法国在较长时期内进行更为严格的财政改革,类似于希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰在欧元区危机期间所采取的措施。

Such a move would be politically sensitive, likely requiring France to engage in even more stringent fiscal reforms over a long period akin to those by countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland during the euro area crisis, she added.

“有时候确实需要市场压力,而今年我们已经看到这一点了。”与此同时,RBC蓝湾资产管理公司的Mike Bell表示,法国面临着“非常真实的风险”,即可能爆发自身的主权债务危机。

"Sometimes it does take market pressure, and that's what we've seen this year." RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Mike Bell meanwhile said France was facing a "very real risk" of its own sovereign debt crisis. "Ultimately they need to get the fiscal house in order.

“最终他们需要把财政状况理顺。如果你甚至提出实际上需要做什么来实现这一点,你就不会当选;如果你在没有通过选举授权的情况下试图强行推行,那么就会引发街头骚乱。”贝尔补充说,在任何干预之前,将会出现“谁赢得下次选举”与欧洲央行之间的“天翻地覆的冲突”。除非各国遵守其过度赤字程序,否则央行不太可能介入;该程序规定,一般政府预算赤字不得超过国内生产总值的3%。法国目前的赤字约为5%。

If you even suggested what's actually needed for that, you wouldn't get elected, and if you tried to put it in without having put it through on a mandate for election, then you'd have riots in the street." Before any intervention, there will be an "almighty clash between whoever wins the next election" and the ECB, Bell added. The central bank is unlikely to step in unless countries comply with its excess deficit procedure, which states that the general government budget deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. France's current deficit is around 5%.

法国央行行长埃马纽埃尔·穆兰上周告诉CNBC,法国国债收益率上升是由于政治不确定性,但他表示“有可能在2029年恢复到3%的赤字,这是政府的目标。”

Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin told CNBC last week that rising French yields were due to political uncertainty, but said it was "possible to get back to a 3% deficit in 2029, which is the objective of the government."

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