警员们站在火焰旁，2026年10月18日，在巴黎共和国广场（Place de la Republique）发生的未经授权的示威活动中，示威者与执法部门发生冲突，现场出现骚乱。| Gauthier Bedrignans/Hans Lucas/AFP 通过盖蒂图片社提供巴黎 — 全国范围内周末的抢劫和骚乱正威胁着重塑法国总统大选的格局。
Police officers stand near a fire during an unauthorized demonstration marked by riots and clashes with law enforcement at Place de la Republique in Paris on October 18, 2026. | Gauthier Bedrignans/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images PARIS — Looting and rioting across France over the weekend are threatening to reshape the contours of the French presidential race.
极右翼领跑者玛丽娜·勒庞正利用这场危机，把自己塑造成秩序与法律的候选人，但她也面临风险。许多选民认为她是一个极具分裂性的领导人，她在2027年的胜利只会加剧骚乱所暴露的社会断裂线。
Far-right frontrunner Marine Le Pen is seizing on the crisis to cast herself as the candidate of law and order, but there are risks for her too. Many voters see her as a highly divisive leader whose 2027 victory would only deepen the societal fault lines exposed by the riots.
极左派火药桶让-吕克·梅朗雄，被广泛看好将在明年第二轮选举中挑战勒庞，也在小心行事，因为对手指责他煽动了街头的愤怒，这种愤怒已经演变为抢劫和纵火。
Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, widely tipped to challenge Le Pen in the second round next year, is also treading carefully as rivals accuse him of encouraging the rage on the streets that has morphed into pillaging and arson.
对于举步维艰的中间派来说，现在终于有机会在竞选中留下印象 — — 但前提是他们能够与被视为对全国范围内破坏浪潮反应敷衍的埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统保持距离。总体而言，这正把选举推向未知的水域。
For the flailing centrists, there is now an opportunity to finally make an impression in the contest — but only if they can distance themselves from President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as fluffing his response to the nationwide wave of vandalism. Overall, it’s pushing the election into uncharted waters.
“如果真的发生危机，你不知道它会导向何方，”一位经常与极右翼民族联盟官员进行定期会谈的保守人士说道。他获准匿名以讨论此事。
“If there’s a real crisis, you don’t know where it could lead,” said one conservative who holds regular talks with officials from the far-right National Rally and was granted anonymity to discuss the subject.
这对候选人意味着什么？POLITICO 审视了各政治光谱领先候选人的战略计算。
Where does that leave the candidates? POLITICO takes a look at the strategic calculus for the leading runners across the political spectrum.
玛丽娜·勒庞，势头上升 勒庞正获得即时提升。甚至她的对手也承认这一点。
Marine Le Pen, on the up Le Pen is receiving an immediate boost. Even her rivals admit it.
“本周六的骚乱‘有利于极右翼’，”中右翼欧洲议会议员纳塔莉·卢瓦索在接受采访时说。“他们正像秃鹫一样在这起暴力事件周围盘旋。”她在接受采访时如此表示。
This Saturday’s unrest “benefits the far right,” said center-right European Member of Parliament Nathalie Loiseau. “They are circling around the violence like vultures,” she said in an interview.
勒庞已经把自己塑造成替代性总统，周日向全国发表了庄重的讲话，并把自己定位为“安宁法国”的候选人。她的国民联盟党主席乔丹·巴尔德拉在抗议问题上加码，将其党塑造成唯一能够恢复秩序的力量，并放大了对掠夺的担忧。他在巴黎的新闻发布会上表示：“暴徒很快就会闯入民宅。”“当局正在崩溃。”但长期的过度混乱可能会适得其反，因为该党长期被视为煽动民众骚乱的一方。而且这一话题已经在国民联盟内部成为讨论焦点。
Le Pen has already cast herself as the alternative president, delivering a sober address to the nation Sunday and pitching herself as the candidate of a “pacified France.”Jordan Bardella, president of her National Rally party, upped the ante on the protests and pitched his party as the only one able to restore order, dialing up fears about the pillaging. The rioters “will soon be breaking into people’s homes,” he said at a press conference in Paris. “The authorities are collapsing.”But excessive, prolonged chaos could backfire on a party long seen as instigating civil unrest. And the topic is already becoming a talking point inside the National Rally.
2026年10月14日，在布鲁塞尔欧盟峰会前夕，法国爱国者议会小组会议期间，法国2027年总统大选的极右翼政党国民联盟候选人玛丽娜·勒庞在会议侧边举行新闻发布会。| Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images“有人说这表明，如果国民联盟上台执政，就会爆发骚乱，”巴尔德拉的顾问之一查尔斯-亨利·加卢瓦说。“但我不这么认为。”正如上述保守人士所言，不稳定时期可能会让法国人背离反建制人物，转而支持传统老将。
Far-right party Rassemblement National candidate in France’s 2027 presidential election Marine Le Pen holds a press conference on the sidelines of a meeting of Patriots parliamentary group on the eve of an EU Summit in Brussels on October 14, 2026. | Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images“Some say that this shows that there will be riots if the National Rally comes to power,” said Charles-Henri Gallois, one of Bardella’s advisors. “But I don’t believe it.”According to the conservative quoted above, periods of instability can lead the French to turn their backs on anti-establishment figures and prefer traditional veterans.
“你可能最终会看到[夏尔·]戴高乐在香榭丽舍大道上，”这位官员说道，指的是第五共和国首任总统在1958年全国性危机后如何获得额外权力。
“You could end up with [Charles] De Gaulle on the Champs-Élysées,” the official said, referring to how the first president of the Fifth Republic emerged with extra powers after the 1958 crisis that roiled the nation.
让-吕克·梅朗雄，处于防御状态的左翼领袖梅朗雄正陷入两难，他在支持抗议者与与暴力划清界限之间艰难平衡。
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the defensive Far-left leader Mélenchon is in a bind as he walks a tightrope between supporting protesters and distancing himself from violence.
法国不屈党在上周末骚乱之前就支持了学校抗议，而极左翼当选官员在封锁行动中扮演了突出角色，要么谴责所谓的警察暴力，要么支持抗议者。
The France Unbowed party supported the school protests in the run-up to last weekend’s riots, and far-left elected officials have played a prominent role in the blockades, either in decrying alleged police violence or in support of the protesters.
在梅朗雄与中左翼欧洲议会议员拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼的领导权争夺战中，前者抢尽了风头。
In the battle for leadership between Mélenchon and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the former grabbed the limelight.
让-吕克·梅朗雄，2026年10月17日在巴黎的10月17日示威活动期间。|奥古斯丁·帕斯夸尼/汉斯·卢卡斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社 但本周末的暴力行为可能最终导致极左翼被边缘化，尤其是在政府和政治对手指责他们煽动动乱的情况下。“他们试图恶化局势，”卢瓦索说。
Jean-Luc Melenchon, during the October 17 demonstration in Paris on October 17, 2026. | Augustin Pasquini/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images But the violence this weekend could end up marginalizing the far left, especially with the government and political rivals accusing them of fueling the unrest. “They tried to aggravate the situation,” Loiseau said.
周一，梅朗雄试图扭转局面，反击政府，称总理通过指责极左翼团队试图破坏选举，正在制造“无序”。
On Monday, Mélenchon tried to turn the tables, firing back at the government, saying the prime minister was fomenting “disorder” with his accusations that ultra-left groups were trying to disrupt the election.
爱德华·菲利普，寻求重启 对于中右翼总统候选人菲利普而言，骚乱也不是好消息。他必须努力与自己曾经的上司、被视为对危机反应不足的总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙保持距离。（菲利普曾是马克龙的第一任总理。）但这些抗议也可能成为他展示个性、驳斥认为其竞选缺乏活力和魅力的批评者的机会。作为击败极右翼的最佳中间派候选人，菲利普的民意支持率在最近几个月一直停滞不前，他一直难以在竞选喧嚣中脱颖而出。
Edouard Philippe, looking for a reset For the center-right presidential hopeful Philippe, the riots aren’t good news either. He has to work hard to distance himself from his old boss, President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as failing to respond sufficiently to the crisis. (Philippe was Macron’s first prime minister.) But the protests could also be his opportunity to show some character, and rebut critics who think his campaign lacks energy and panache. Philippe, the best-placed centrist candidate to beat the far-right, has seen his poll ratings stall in recent months and has struggled to cut through the campaign noise.
爱德华·菲利普在2026年10月14日巴黎举行的全球新闻媒体联盟与多位总统候选人会面期间发表讲话。|迪米塔尔·迪尔科夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社 与马克龙决裂可能正是他所需要的。
Edouard Philippe gives a speech during a meeting between the Alliance for General News Press and several presidential candidates in Paris on October 14, 2026. | Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images A break with Macron might just be what he needs.
菲利普在总统周日的黄金时段电视讲话中未宣布任何措施后，强硬地反驳了总统。“我本希望……有决策和行动来恢复秩序，”他在网上写道。“这个国家需要一个掌舵的人。”但如果他想产生影响，前总理需要更勇敢地站出来。
Philippe came out hard against the president after he failed to announce any measures during his primetime television address Sunday. “I would have preferred… decisions and initiatives to restore order,” he wrote online. “This country needs someone in command.”But the former PM will need to stick his neck out more if he’s going to make an impact.
“他的总统气质很足，这种姿态很适合他，”马克龙的一位部长说。与本文引用的其他人一样，这位部长也获得了匿名，以便坦率地发表看法。
“He’s very presidential, and it’s a posture that suits him,” said one of Macron’s ministers, who, like others cited here, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“但他什么也没说。他的尺度是什么？为什么他不说我们需要宣布进入紧急状态？”拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼在进攻。对于欧洲议会议员拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼而言，这些抗议是一场火焰考验，因为他在本月早些时候赢得了社会党初选，并成为中左翼的总统候选人。
“But he’s not saying anything. What’s his measure? Why doesn’t he say we need to call a state of emergency? “Raphaël Glucksmann, on the offensive For the MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the protests are a trial by fire after he won the Socialist Party primary contest earlier this month and became the center-left’s presidential candidate.
周一，格吕克斯曼试图与梅朗雄唱出完全不同的调子，他对记者说：“成群的抢劫者袭击国家象征……这是无法容忍的。”拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼，欧洲议会议员，公共场所共同主席，2027年总统选举左翼初选胜者，于2026年10月11日在巴黎索拉里斯大厦第一轮结果公布之夜胜利后发表讲话。| 本杰明·沃丹特/汉斯·卢卡斯/法新社，经盖蒂图片社提供。
On Monday, Glucksmann tried to strike a very different note from Mélenchon, telling reporters that “it’s unbearable … that hordes of looters should attack symbols of the state.”Raphaël Glucksmann, Member of the European Parliament, co-chair of Place publique, and winner of the left-wing primary for the 2027 presidential election, speaking after his victory during the first-round results night at the Solaris in Paris on October 11, 2026. | Benjamin Vodant/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images Sensing a chink in the far-left leader’s armor, he accused the leader of France Unbowed of being “a springboard” for Le Pen, who would be “the beneficiary of the chaos.”
他敏锐地察觉到极左翼领袖防线上的裂缝，指责法国不屈领袖是“勒庞的跳板”，而勒庞将是“混乱的受益者”。自格吕克斯曼在社会党初选中 outright 获胜以来，他的民调支持率一直在上升，根据最近的Elabe民调，支持率达到15%至16.5%，这一水平与梅朗雄和菲利普相当。但上述引用的部长预计格吕克斯曼的支持率将很快达到峰值。
Glucksmann has seen his poll ratings go up since he won the Socialist Party primary outright, reaching 15% to 16.5% according to a recent Elabe poll — in a similar territory to Mélenchon and Philippe. But the minister quoted above expected Glucksmann to peak soon.
“他只能抢走梅朗雄的选票，”这位部长说。“左翼选民可能会投右翼的票，但右翼选民在可预见的未来不会投左翼的票，”此人说。
“He can only take voters away from Mélenchon,” the minister said. “A left-wing voter may vote for the right, but a right-wing voter won’t vote for the left anytime soon,” the person said.
埃马纽埃尔·马克龙，一路下滑。马克龙因上电视向全国发表讲话、宣布……完全没有内容而被抨击。
Emmanuel Macron, on the skids Macron is being roasted for going on television to address the nation and announce … absolutely nothing.
周日，马克龙承诺，那些“毁坏”东西的骚乱分子将付出代价，并要求就抗议为何转向暴力给出“明确的答案”。“操他妈的，这是废话，”一名前高级政府官员说。
On Sunday, Macron promised that rioters who “destroyed” things would have to pay the price and called for “clear answers” on why the protests turned violent. “Fucking hell, it’s rubbish,” said one former senior government official.
马克龙一直塑造自己置身事外的形象，周一前往中东访问。但他未能对暴力作出回应，可能会损害他执政的最后几个月。“这太脱离实际了，”一位地区官员说。
Macron has cultivated an image of being above the fray and went on a trip to the Middle East on Monday. But his failure to respond to the violence risks damaging his final months in power. “It’s out of touch,” a regional official said.
据上述部长所说，马克龙本应让他的总理出面发言，但他却被鼓励发表“平息局势”的讲话。
According to the minister quoted above, Macron should have let his prime minister do the talking but instead was encouraged to make “a speech to calm” the situation.
周一，总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努试图控制局势，宣布了局部宵禁、限制流动以及禁止公众示威的措施。
On Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tried to get a grip on the situation, announcing localized curfews, movement restrictions, and bans on public demonstrations.
但另一天的示威活动已经宣布将在下周六举行，引发人们对抗议活动可能像2018年和2019年的“黄背心”运动一样雪球式扩大、持续下去的担忧。
But another day of demonstrations has already been announced for next Saturday, sparking fears the protests will snowball into sustained protests similar to the Yellow Vests movement in 2018 and 2019.
如果情况真的如此，这种混乱将成为2027年竞选的决定性因素。
If so, this chaos will be a defining element of the 2027 campaign.