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法国抗议:选举前,马克龙的中间派是否已大势已去?French protests: Is it game over for Macron’s centrists before elections?

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2026年10月17日,法国巴黎,示威活动期间,道路上散落着火灾过后烧焦的残骸 [卡尔·考特/盖蒂图片社]Charred remnants of a fire lie in the road during demonstrations on October 17, 2026 in Paris, France [Carl Court/Getty Images]

在全国范围内的抗议活动演变成暴力事件后,法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙于周日晚间试图在承认要求改革教育体系的学生们的关切与谴责暴徒之间找到平衡。

After nationwide protests turned violent, French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday night tried to strike a balance between acknowledging the concerns of students demanding changes to the education system and criticising rioters.

马克龙表示:“那些破坏财物的人必须付出代价。那些参与抢劫的人必须向受害者赔偿。那些企图摧毁共和国的人将被追究责任。”

“Those who have destroyed property must pay. Those who have looted must reimburse their victims. Those who sought to bring down the republic will be held accountable,” Macron said.

但这位总统的演讲并不是来自塞纳河畔伊夫里(巴黎东南部的一个郊区)的20岁青年雅尼斯想听到的。

But the president’s speech was not what Yanis, a 20-year-old from Ivry-sur-Seine, a suburb just southeast of Paris, wanted to hear.

他说:“他发表了他那一贯的‘废话连篇的演讲’,却没有提出任何具体的东西。我们无论如何都会重返街头。游行将一场接一场地进行,直到情况发生变化——每个周末,永不停歇。”

“He gave his usual ‘bla bla bla speech’ without putting forward anything concrete,” he said. “We’ll be back on the streets anyway. There will be one demonstration after another until something changes – every weekend, without a break”.

随着法国正艰难应对上周末以暴力抗议形式爆发的普遍愤怒情绪,人们——至少在该国的年轻人中——对马克龙所代表的中间派政治的热情似乎正在迅速消退。

As France grapples with widespread anger that bubbled over in the form of violent protests last weekend, appetite – at least among the country’s youth – for centrist politics of the kind that Macron represents appears to be rapidly shrinking.

法国的动荡发生在2027年该国总统大选前数月,并进一步加剧了政治分歧,各政党纷纷试图把自己包装成解决街头显现的不满情绪的答案。

The unrest in France comes months before the country’s 2027 presidential election and has further sharpened political divisions, with parties seeking to present themselves as the answer to the frustration visible on the streets.

左翼民粹主义领袖让-吕克·梅朗雄热情地拥抱了学生运动,而极右翼政坛风云人物玛丽娜·勒庞则将焦点对准了游行伴随的混乱,将其定性为安全和权威的危机。中间派总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼指责极左翼煽动暴力,将其作为总统大选的“热身赛”。

The populist-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon has embraced the student movement with enthusiasm, while far-right firebrand Marine Le Pen has focused on the disorder that came with the demonstrations, framing it as a crisis of security and authority. The centrist Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has accused the extreme left of instigating violence as a “warm-up round” for the presidential election.

选举前的民调显示,这将是一场极左与极右都可能发挥核心作用的角逐。但尽管国家在呼吁变革,对于这种变革应呈何种面貌,却鲜有共识。已执政两个任期的马克龙将在选举后不得不退位,因为宪法禁止他再次参选。

Polling before the election points to a contest in which both the far left and the far right could play a central role. But while the country is demanding change, there is little consensus on what that change should look like. Macron, who has been in power for two terms, will need to step aside after the election, as the constitution bars him from running again.

“候选人别无选择,只能表明立场并回应年轻人的诉求,”政治分析师、巴黎十二大学(UPEC)公法教授贝利格·纳布利表示。“他们有政治义务向年轻人传递信息。该信息不能空洞,而必须回应他们的要求。”自9月中旬发起抗议以来,学生们要求改善学校条件、增加教师编制、建立更公平的体制。但这场运动迅速蔓延出校园,走向街头,触动了更广泛的社会与经济焦虑。

“Candidates have no choice but to take a stand and address young people,” said political analyst Beligh Nabli, a professor of public law at UPEC-Paris XII. “They have a political obligation to have a message aimed at young people. That message must not be empty, but it will have to answer their demands.”Since launching their protest in mid-September, students have demanded better schools, more teachers and a more equal system. But the movement quickly spilled out of the schoolyards and into the streets, tapping into broader social and economic anxieties.

分析人士指出,鉴于年轻人选举参与度相对较低,且政治竞选往往聚焦年长选民及养老金等议题,这些抗议以一种原本未必会发生的方式,将这些议题推到了政治辩论的中心。

The protests have brought these issues to the centre of the political debate in a way that might not otherwise have happened, given young people’s comparatively low electoral participation and the tendency of political campaigns to focus on older voters and issues such as pensions, say analysts.

纳布利表示:“如果不是这次动员,一切都会照常进行。”“候选人们对年轻人会有一种相对冷漠的态度,因为与60岁以上的人相比,年轻人并不是选举中最积极动员的社会群体。”由梅朗雄领导的左翼政党“不屈法国”(La France Insoumise,简称LFI)大力支持学生运动,以至于批评人士指责该党煽动青年怨恨,并利用骚乱谋取政治利益。

“If it wasn’t for this mobilisation, it would have been business as usual,” Nabli said. “We would have seen a kind of relative indifference from the candidates towards young people because they are not the social group that mobilises the most in elections, in contrast with those over 60.”France Unbowed – La France Insoumise (LFI) in French – the left party led by Melenchon, has strongly supported the student movement to the point that critics have accused the party of spurring youth resentment and exploiting the unrest for political gain.

然而,该党在年轻选民中的吸引力早于这些抗议活动。其竞选纲领回应了该运动的多项核心诉求,包括加大对教育的投资、提高教师薪酬,以及废除帕尔库尔苏普(Parcoursup)——这是一个学生必须使用的用于高等教育申请的网络平台,许多人认为该平台缺乏透明度。

Yet the party’s appeal among young voters predates the protests. Its programme addresses several of the movement’s central grievances, including investment in education, teachers’ pay and the abolition of Parcoursup, an online platform students must use for higher education applications that many say lacks transparency.

根据民调机构OpinionWay为《回声报》周四公布的一项民调显示,梅朗雄在18至24岁的选民中领先,获得49%的支持率,较2022年增加了10个百分点。

According to an OpinionWay poll for Les Echos, published on Thursday, Melenchon leads among voters aged 18 to 24, with 49 percent backing him – a 10-percentage-point increase compared with 2022.

对一些年轻抗议者来说,支持梅朗雄既体现了对极右翼的反对,也体现了对政治中间派的沮丧。

For some young protesters, support for Melenchon reflects both opposition to the far right and frustration with the political centre.

周一参加了在该博物馆举行的抗议活动的21岁卢浮宫学院学生莉迪亚说:“我将投票给‘不屈法国’,以对抗极右翼、国民联盟,以及基本上会让我们重蹈马克龙政策覆辙的中间派。”

“I’m going to vote for La France Insoumise to counter the far right, the National Rally, and the centre, which is basically going to give us a repeat of Macron’s policies,” said Lydia, 21, a student at the Ecole du Louvre who took part in a protest at the museum on Monday.

但她表示,她对该党是否一定会解决法国的问题不抱任何幻想。她还批评了她所认为的批评者对“不屈法国”的妖魔化,并辩称,甚至连温和的左翼立场也日益被贴上极端的标签。她说:“拥有同理心正变得相当罕见;这正变成一种极左翼的事情。”

But she said she was under no illusion that the party would necessarily solve France’s problems. She also criticised what she sees as the demonisation of LFI by critics, arguing that even moderately left-wing positions are increasingly labelled extreme. “It’s becoming rather exceptional to have empathy; it’s becoming something extreme left-wing,” she said.

在政治光谱的另一端,勒庞及其国民联盟党试图将骚乱变成一个治安问题,指责政府无力控制国家,并指责其主要竞争对手梅朗雄煽动暴力。勒庞仍是总统竞选中的领跑者,获得了百分之三十二的选票,而国民联盟在十八至二十四岁的选民中排名第二,落后于不屈法国党。

On the other side of the political spectrum, Le Pen and her National Rally party have sought to make the unrest a question of law and order, accusing the government of failing to be able to control the country, and its main competitor, Melenchon, of stoking violence. Le Pen remains the leading contender in the presidential race with 32 percent of the vote, while the National Rally ranked second among voters aged 18 to 24, behind France Unbowed.

勒庞在周日晚间的一段视频信息中表示:“昨天,你们看到我们的城市、我们的街道和我们的国家遭到虐待、殴打和掠夺。我们正在经历一场深刻的信任与权威危机——这场危机对我们的民主构成了威胁。”她补充说,法国“陷入了夹缝之中——实际上沦为人质——介于暴力与无能之间”。

“Yesterday, you saw our cities, our streets, and our country mistreated, battered, and looted,” Le Pen said in a video message on Sunday night. “We are experiencing a profound crisis of trust and authority – one that poses a threat to our democracy.”She added that France was “caught in a vice – effectively held hostage – between violence and powerlessness”.

夹在这些相互竞争的叙事之间的是马克龙的中间派阵营,他的总统任期在“黄背风暴”抗议活动中开始,如今又在另一波重大社会动荡的背景下走向尾端。早期的那场运动最初由燃油税上涨引发,后来演变成一场针对生活成本以及示威者所认为的马克龙偏袒精英阶层的更大规模反抗。

Caught between these competing narratives is the centrist bloc of Macron, whose presidency began amid the Yellow Vest protests and is now approaching its end against the backdrop of another major wave of social unrest. That earlier movement, initially triggered by a rise in fuel taxes, grew into a broader revolt against the cost of living and what demonstrators saw as Macron’s favouring of the elite.

现在与当时的不同之处在于,接下来的任何政府都不具备通过开支票来平息骚乱的财政空间。去年,该国政府记录的赤字占法国国内生产总值的百分之五点一,是欧洲国家中最高的赤字之一。相比之下,欧盟的平均水平为百分之三点一。任何未来的总统都必须应对马克龙的头痛问题:如何在不加深公众愤怒的情况下省钱。

One of the differences between now and then is that any government coming next will not have the fiscal room to quell the unrest by handing a cheque. Last year, the government recorded a deficit of 5.1 percent of France’s gross domestic product, one of the highest among European countries. By contrast, the European Union average is 3.1 percent. Any future president will have to deal with Macron’s headache: How to save money without deepening public anger.

当前的动员暴露出了对政治建制派更广泛的幻灭感。这位总统的支持率为百分之十五,处于历史最低点。

The current mobilisation has exposed a wider sense of disillusionment with the political establishment. The president’s popularity stands at 15 percent, the lowest ever.

在周日晚上的演讲中,马克龙将暴力事件归咎于“来自极端极左翼集团的暴徒,他们与众多犯罪分子合流”。但他仅简短谈及学生们的诉求,并未提出任何具体的全新政策举措来加以应对。相反,他委任勒科尔尼将学生、教师、工会和民选官员召集起来,在未来几天内制定提议,同时承诺对暴力采取更强硬的回应。

In his speech on Sunday night, Macron blamed “insurrectionists from fringe far-left groups, joined by numerous criminals” for the violence. But he only briefly spoke about the students’ demands and offered no specific new policy measures to address them. Instead, he tasked Lecornu with bringing together students, teachers, unions and elected officials to develop proposals in the coming days, while promising a tougher response to violence.

这场动荡为他的反对者提供了契机,他们借此论证其总统任期未能解决深层次的不平等问题。事关重大的是一代年轻人的支持,他们感到被国家辜负,且与政治建制派日益疏离——在未来几个月选举前的这段时间里,政治光谱各方都准备好争取他们的支持。

The unrest presents an opportunity for his opponents to argue that his presidency has failed to address deep-rooted inequalities. At stake is the support of a generation of young people who feel let down by the state and increasingly disconnected from the political establishment – and who all sides of the political spectrum are poised to woo in the coming months before the election.

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