
投资有一条原则:‘不要与美联储对抗’。”违背美联储刺激或抑制经济的计划只会导致糟糕的结果。但大型科技公司并不遵循这一原则。人工智能巨头们几乎对不断上升的借贷成本漠不关心。利率上升,他们却借得更多钱。
One rule of investing is “don’t fight the Fed.”Playing the contrarian to the Federal Reserve’s plans to stimulate or dampen the economy only ends badly. But Big Tech is not run by rule-followers. AI giants have been almost willfully indifferent to the rising cost of money. Rates go higher, and they borrow more.
这对美联储来说是个问题,因为正如芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比上周所说,通货膨胀正在“失控”——从与人工智能相关的行业蔓延到经济的其他领域。至少到目前为止,美联储的主要调控手段并没有起到效果。
It’s a problem for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to tamp down inflation that, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told us last week, is “jumping out of its lane” — spreading from AI-linked sectors into unrelated parts of the economy. The Fed’s main lever, at least so far, isn’t working.
马克·扎克伯格和达里奥·阿莫迪并非那些会因为借贷成本上升而减少支出的普通人;他们自视为历史上的伟人,为西方带来了超级智能,并开启了星际繁荣的时代。
Mark Zuckerberg and Dario Amodei aren’t giddy consumers whose spending cools when borrowing gets expensive. They see themselves as great men of history, securing super intelligence for the West and ushering in an age of intergalactic abundance.
他们还认为消费者在人工智能上的支出才刚刚开始,因此未来的收入可以证明他们的投资是合理的。这种使命感不会因为债券利率上升75个基点就被打消。
They also believe customer spending on AI has only just begun, and so the coming revenue can justify their investments. That kind of existential drive can’t be discouraged by an extra 75 basis points of bond interest.
无论是人工智能公司还是美联储,都迫切需要良好的公众形象和信誉。
Both the AI companies and the Fed are desperate for goodwill and credibility.
如果抵押贷款利率达到15%,而大型科技公司仍像没有明天一样继续支出,人们肯定会对他们感到愤怒。
If mortgages cost 15% and hyperscalers are still spending like there’s no tomorrow, people are going to be very mad at both of them.