11月3日的美国中期选举正占据着国内外新闻头条。此次选举的赌注极高。中期选举将决定哪个政党控制美国国会，进而塑造特朗普任内最后两年的施政方向。选举还将决定关键的州和地方职位。
The United States midterms on November 3 are dominating national and international headlines. The stakes of the election are high. The midterm race will determine which party controls the US Congress, and in turn, shape the direction of Trump’s final two years in office. It will also decide key state and local positions.
但在中期选举中取得大胜，可能仍不足以撼动华盛顿特区的权力平衡。
But notching big wins in the midterm election may not be enough to shake up the balance of power in Washington, DC.
为帮助理解今年中期选举的影响及后续可能出现的局势，半岛电视台整理了这份简明指南。以下是美国中期选举在联邦层面事关重大的原因。
To understand the implications of this year’s midterm election and what may come next, Al Jazeera has put together this simple primer. Here’s why the US midterms matter at the federal level.
争夺美国众议院和参议院控制权 中期选举发生在总统任期的中点，因此行政职位不在选票之上。
Battle for the US House of Representatives and US Senate Midterm elections fall at the halfway point of a president’s term, meaning the executive office will not be on the ballot.
焦点将集中在国会控制权的争夺上。美国立法机构由两院组成：众议院和参议院。
Front and centre will be the battle for control of Congress. Two chambers make up the US legislature: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
由于众议员任期两年，众议院所有435个席位将在11月3日改选。然而，大多数选区的竞争已被视为走过场，有明显的领跑者。
Because members of the House serve two-year terms, all 435 seats in the chamber are up for election on November 3. However, most races are already considered formalities, with a clear frontrunner.
这使得仅有少数选区——约50个——将决定谁将赢得众议院多数党地位。
That leaves only a handful of races — about 50 — to decide who will win the House majority.
尽管局势可能变化，但几乎所有权威的选情预测机构都预测民主党将赢得众议院控制权，有的预测优势多达15个席位。然而，民主党在参议院赢得多数席位的机会较渺茫。
While subject to change, nearly every reputable election prognosticator has predicted that Democrats will win control of the House, some by as many as 15 seats. The Democrats have a slimmer chance of winning a majority in the Senate, however.
参议院仅有100个席位。但因参议员实行任期六年的交错改选制，本次仅有35个席位参选。其中仅约十几个选区被视为有竞争力。
That chamber has only 100 seats. But because senators have staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election. Only about a dozen of those races are considered competitive.
尽管如此，随着有竞争力的选区增多，民主党夺取参议院控制权的几率已有所上升。
Still, Democrats have seen their odds of seizing the Senate increase, as the number of competitive races has grown.
左翼候选人在得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州等深红州取得进展，为民主党在本选举周期争夺参议院多数党地位创造了更多机会。
Left-wing candidates have made inroads in deep-red states like Texas and Kansas, creating more opportunities for the Democratic Party to claim a Senate majority this election cycle.
因为美国副总统在参议院拥有决定性一票，民主党需要获得51个席位才能控制该院。什么是党派控制权？
Because the US vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber. What does party control mean?
国会通过法律并批准联邦预算。但即使某个党派在国会两院都获得多数席位，也可能不足以控制国家的立法议程。
Congress passes laws and approves federal budgets. But even if a party secures a majority in both chambers of Congress, it may not be enough to control the country’s legislative agenda.
法案在众议院可由简单多数通过，但在参议院通常需要60票的绝对多数，才能克服被称为“冗长辩论”的程序。这一程序允少数派无限期拖延立法，除非有绝对多数介入。
Laws can pass by a simple majority in the House, but they typically need a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a process known as the filibuster. That process can allow a minority group to stall legislation indefinitely, barring a supermajority.
因此，除非某个党派在参议院赢得超过60个席位，否则大多数立法仍至少需要一定程度的两党支持才能通过。
Therefore, unless a party wins more than 60 seats in the Senate, most legislation will still require at least some level of bipartisan support to pass.
即使立法通过两院，总统也可以否决提交其办公桌的任何法案。推翻总统否决需要众参两院各自拥有三分之二的绝对多数。要获得克服总统否决所需的广泛两党支持极为罕见。
Even if legislation passes both chambers, the president can veto any bill that comes across his desk. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate. Achieving the broad bipartisan support needed to overcome a presidential veto is exceedingly rare.
上一次发生这种情况是在2021年1月，特朗普首个任期期间。当时美国总统已在2020年大选中失利，当他试图否决一项国防支出法案时，共和党议员对他的支持瓦解了。
The last time it happened was in January 2021, during Trump’s first term. At the time, the US president had lost the 2020 election, and he saw his support from Republican lawmakers dissipate when he attempted to veto a defence spending bill.
尽管如此，仍有两党支持克服总统反对的实例。今年早些时候，一项增加住房供应的法案在众参两院均以足以推翻否决的多数通过，尽管特朗普曾表示反对。那么，如果共和党继续控制国会会怎样？
Still, there are instances when bipartisan support overcomes presidential objections. A bill to increase the housing supply passed both the House and Senate with veto-proof majorities earlier this year, despite Trump’s stated opposition. So what happens if Republicans maintain control of Congress?
共和党目前在国会两院都占多数，在参议院拥有53个席位，在众议院拥有218个席位。
Republicans currently hold two majorities in Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House.
随着特朗普入主白宫，这意味着该党在过去两年里掌握了所谓的政府“三权合一”，掌控三大权力杠杆。
With Trump in the White House, that means the party has held a so-called government “trifecta” over the last two years, with three levers of power under its command.
共和党在国会中的多数席位帮助特朗普推动了一些关键立法的通过，其中包括大幅增加对移民与海关执法部门（ICE）的拨款，以及削减某些形式的公共医疗福利——这些措施都是2025年税改法案的一部分。然而，共和党的议席数量仍不足以让特朗普实现其所有的立法目标。特别是他提出的《SAVE America Act》（即联邦选民身份验证法案），由于民主党的反对而未能获得通过。
The Republican majorities in Congress have helped Trump pass some of his signature legislation, including surging funding to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and cleaving back some forms of publicly funded healthcare as part of a sweeping 2025 tax bill. But Republicans’ numbers have not been enough to pass Trump’s entire legislative wishlist. Notably, he has been unable to pass his signature federal voter identification law, dubbed the “SAVE America Act“, amid Democratic opposition.
在某些问题上，共和党人与特朗普的意见存在分歧，尤其是在关税政策上；还有一些共和党人投票支持国会应在美国对伊朗的军事行动中发挥更大的监督作用。
There have also been a handful of issues where Republicans have defied Trump, particularly on tariffs. A few Republicans have also voted to assert congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran.
如果共和党在11月的选举中继续控制众议院和参议院，其多数席位将有助于推动特朗普的立法议程。不过需要注意的是：随着2028年大选的临近，议员们会密切关注选民的情绪。由于特朗普无法连任第三任期，一些共和党人可能会在接下来的两年里公开反对这位“跛脚鸭”总统，以此来提升自己的选举前景。
If the Republican Party maintains control of both the House and Senate in November’s race, its majorities could continue to help Trump’s legislative agenda. But there is an important caveat. Lawmakers will be keeping an anxious eye on voter sentiment as the 2028 elections approach. With Trump unable to seek a third term, some Republicans may have more appetite to publicly oppose the lame-duck president during the next two years, in order to boost their election prospects.
如果共和党仍控制参议院但失去众议院的席位，他们仍可以协助特朗普任命关键联邦职位的候选人（包括最高法院大法官）。
If Republicans maintain control of the Senate but lose the House, they would still be able to help Trump confirm his nominees for key federal roles. Hundreds of federal positions require approval from a simple majority in the Senate, including roles in the judiciary, including Supreme Court justices.
那么，如果民主党掌控了国会呢？通常情况下，执政党可以决定哪些立法提案会被提交表决以及表决的时间。但对民主党来说，赢得一个或两个议院的多数席位最关键的意义在于：他们可以在未来两年内阻止特朗普推行自己的立法计划。
What if Democrats take control? The party in control of Congress, with a few exceptions, can determine what legislation is brought to a vote and when. But for Democrats, the most significant outcome of winning a majority in one or both chambers would be the ability to block Trump from legislating his agenda over the next two years.
分析人士预计，由民主党主导的国会将会采取防御性立场，驳回特朗普提出的所有提案。
That said, analysts expect a Democrat-led Congress to take a largely defensive stance, batting down Trump’s proposals.
如果民主党在众议院和参议院都获得多数席位，他们想要采取攻势或推动自己的立法议程将会变得更加困难。即便如此，民主党提出的法案仍可能遭到特朗普的否决权。不过，掌握多数席位将有助于民主党将自身的政策优先事项纳入那些“必须通过”的立法议程中；政府停摆的威胁可能会迫使共和党人同意通过预算法案，即使他们在所有条款上并未达成一致。
Going on offence — and passing their own legislative agenda — will be far more difficult, even if the party wins a majority in both the House and Senate. Democrat-led laws would still face Trump’s veto power. However, holding majorities would help Democratic members slip policy priorities into “need-to-pass” funding legislation. The spectre of a government shutdown could pressure Republicans to pass budget bills, even if they do not agree on all the terms.
民主党还可以将某些议题提交投票，迫使共和党人公开表态反对某些受欢迎的政策，或就具有争议性的问题表明立场。
Democrats can also bring topics to a vote to force congressional Republicans to oppose popular policies or simply take a public stance on divisive issues.
众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）为民主党掌控众议院后制定了一个为期100天的行动计划。该计划的重点议题包括：对特朗普支持的医疗保健改革措施进行投票；重申国会对于美国与伊朗关系的决策权；以及废除特朗普推行的关税政策。
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has laid out a 100-day plan for if Democrats take control of the chamber. Topping the agenda are votes on Trump-backed healthcare funding cuts, asserting congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran and rolling back Trump’s tariff programme.
这些议题已经导致共和党内部出现分歧，对于那些正在为2028年大选做准备的议员来说，这将是一个棘手的难题。民主党会弹劾特朗普吗？
Those issues have split the Republican base and would pose thorny dilemmas for lawmakers already posturing for the 2028 vote. Will Democrats impeach Trump?
在11月大选前夕，特朗普不断为共和党人站台，并多次表示担心：如果民主党控制国会，可能会导致他第三次被弹劾。他在10月初俄克拉荷马州杜兰特市的一次集会上说：“如果我们输了，他们最终会弹劾我。”
As Trump rallies on behalf of Republicans in the run-up to November’s vote, he has repeatedly expressed concern that Democratic control of Congress could lead to one eventuality: his third impeachment. Trump was already impeached twice during his first term. “If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me,” he told a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.
如果民主党真的掌控了众议院或参议院，他们将接管数十个委员会的领导权。通过这些委员会，他们可以行使传票权，对各种议题展开调查。一些民主党人士已经表示，调查特朗普家族的腐败指控将是他们的首要任务。
If Democrats do take control of the House or the Senate, they will take over leadership of dozens of committees. Through those committees, they can launch investigations — with subpoena power — into an array of subjects. Some Democrats have already said probing allegations of Trump family corruption will be a top priority.
众议院议员还可以提出弹劾案，并以简单多数票决定是否弹劾联邦官员（包括总统）。
House lawmakers can also introduce articles of impeachment and ultimately vote to impeach federal officials, including the president, with a simple majority.
然而，参议院需要以三分之二多数投票定罪该官员，才能将其免职。
However, the Senate would need to vote to convict the official with a two-thirds majority before they can be removed from office.
或许更为重要的是，如果民主党赢得参议院控制权，他们将能够阻挠特朗普在其任期最后两年内对关键职位人选的确认。那么，在与伊朗的战争和经济问题上会有什么变化？
Perhaps more significantly, if Democrats win control of the Senate, they would be able to block the confirmation of Trump appointees in key roles during his final two years in office. So what will change on the war with Iran and the economy?
民主党的强势表现很可能预示着选民对特朗普政府的不满，但在定义本轮选举季的许多议题上，不会出现迅速、实质性的变化。
A Democratic surge is likely to signal discontent with the Trump administration, but there will not be a swift, tangible change on many of the issues that have defined the election season.
例如，如果民主党同时控制国会两院，他们可以利用其影响力，寻求解决可负担性问题，深入探讨住房、医疗保健和生活成本等议题。
For example, if Democrats secure both majorities in Congress, they could assert their leverage to seek to address affordability issues, drilling into topics like housing, healthcare and the cost of living.
但他们几乎无法立即改变导致汽油和食品杂货价格高企的诸多因素。任何进展很可能都是来之不易、缓慢且渐进的。美以与伊朗的战争也是如此。
But they can do little to immediately change the myriad factors that led to the high price of petrol and groceries. Any gains would most likely be hard-fought, slow-coming and incremental. The same is true for the US-Israel war with Iran.
根据美国宪法，只有国会有权宣战，自第二次世界大战以来，国会从未行使过这一权力。历任总统长期以来一直利用各种法律论据来规避这一宪法要求。
Under the US Constitution, only Congress can declare war, something it has not done since World War II. Presidents have long used various legal arguments to circumvent that constitutional requirement.
最近，特朗普政府辩称，美以与伊朗的战争不需要国会授权，因为总统有责任保护美国人民。
Most recently, the Trump administration argued that the US-Israel war with Iran did not require authorisation from Congress because the president has a duty to protect the American people.
特朗普还辩称，战争已经多次开始和停止，每一次都使他获得国会授权的60天窗口期重新开始计算。
Trump has also argued that the war has started and stopped several times, each time renewing the 60-day window he has to receive Congress’s authorisation.
为了重申国会的宣战权，民主党可以通过一项具有法律约束力的“战争权力决议”来限制特朗普，但他们需要三分之二的支持才能推翻总统的否决。
To reassert Congress’s authority to declare war, Democrats could pass a legally binding “war powers resolution” to rein in Trump, but they would need two-thirds support to overcome the presidential veto.
即使决议能够推翻否决，专家表示，如果特朗普无视国会意愿，美国司法界将如何回应尚不清楚。
Even if a resolution were able to overcome the veto, experts say it is unclear how the US judiciary would respond if Trump were to flout Congress’s will.
尽管如此，民主党仍可以利用对国会的控制权，试图阻止任何用于支持这场战争的拨款。
Still, Democrats could use control of Congress to attempt to stifle any funding for the war.