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法国民众骚乱与预算担忧令市场恐慌,借贷成本创24年新高French borrowing costs hit 24-year high as civil unrest and budget fears spook markets

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起初平静的抗议活动常常遭到警方的强硬手段应对,在法国许多城镇引发了骚乱。摄影:米歇尔·欧拉/美联社Initially calm protests have often been met with aggressive police tactics, sparking riots in many towns and cities in France. Photograph: Michel Euler/AP

法国的借贷成本24年来首次升破5%,政治担忧以及政府未能就拖延已久的预算案达成一致,令金融市场感到恐慌。

France’s borrowing costs have climbed above 5% for the first time in 24 years as political concerns and the government’s failure to agree a much-delayed budget spook the financial markets.

一些市政建筑在近期骚乱中燃起的大火仍在阴燃,新一轮抛售推高了欧元区第二大经济体发行债券的收益率——即利率。

With some civic buildings still smouldering from recent riots,a fresh bout of selling pushed up the yield – or interest rate - on bonds issued by the second-largest economy in the eurozone.

法国国库发行的基准10年期债券——即可同化国库债券(OAT)的收益率,在早盘交易中上涨逾8个基点至5%,随后回落至4.99%。

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond – known as obligation assimilables du Trésor (Oat), issued by the French Treasury – rose more than 8 basis points to 5% in morning trading, before easing to 4.99%.

法国政府尚未通过明年的预算案,而该国近几周来因日益暴力的街头抗议而动荡不安。

The French government has yet to pass its budget for next year, while the country has been rocked by increasingly violent street protests in recent weeks.

抗议始于9月,当时学生呼吁增加资金,以解决学校发霉、老鼠横行、教师短缺和班额过大等问题,随后演变为针对生活成本上涨的更广泛示威。

Protests that began in September with students calling for extra funds to deal with mould and rat-infested schools, a lack of teachers and large class sizes, evolved into wider demonstrations about the rising cost of living.

最初平和的抗议屡遭警方强硬手段对待,在许多城镇和城市引发骚乱。路易威登等商店遭遇抢劫,抗议者还纵火焚烧了利摩日市政厅。

Initially calm protests have often been met with aggressive police tactics, sparking riots in many towns and cities. Stores such as Louis Vuitton have been hit by looting, while protesters also set fire to the town hall in Limoges.

自法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙于2024年宣布提前大选以来,议会中没有任何单一政党拥有绝对多数控制权。

No single party has had overall control of parliament since the French president, Emmanuel Macron, called a snap election in 2024.

议会僵局阻碍了他将退休年龄从62岁推迟至64岁的计划,以及一系列旨在削减或调整国家开支的措施。

The parliamentary gridlocked has blocked his plans to increase the pension age from 62 to 64 years old and a series of measures designed to reduce or redirect state spending.

2025年,法国预算赤字占国内生产总值的5.1%,债务规模达GDP的115.6%。预测显示,若不采取补救措施,本财年赤字和债务均将增加。

France’s budget deficit was 5.1% of gross domestic product in 2025, while its debt pile stood at 115.6% of GDP. Forecasts for the deficit and debt show both increasing in the current financial year without remedial action.

国际借贷方对向巴黎放贷变得日益犹豫,指责政府变得“财政失禁”。

International lenders have become increasingly reticent about lending to Paris, accusing the government of becoming “fiscally incontinent”.

部分借贷方已撤出对法国的借贷,其中以日本基金经理为代表,而留下来的借贷方则要求更高的贷款价格,尤其是长期贷款。

Some have withdrawn from lending to France, notably Japanese fund managers, and those that remain have demanded a higher price for their loans, especially longer period loans.

货币交易与支付平台 Ebury 的市场策略主管 Matthew Ryan 表示,法国的困境也在拖累欧元兑其他主要货币的汇率。

Matthew Ryan, the head of market strategy at currency trading and payments platform Ebury, said French woes were also dragging down the value of the euro against other major currencies.

他说:“随着法国的政治风险溢价短期内似乎不太可能消退,欧元持续落后于大多数主要货币。”

“The euro continues to lag most major currencies as the political risk premium in France looks unlikely to fade any time soon,” he said.

“2027 年预算能否在议会通过仍不清楚,即便通过,似乎也注定要向左翼和右翼做出大量让步,导致赤字问题得不到充分解决。”

“It remains unclear whether the 2027 budget will clear parliament, and even if it does, it seems set to be so riddled with concessions to both the left and the right that the deficit problem is left insufficiently addressed.”

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