
将 SpaceX 与特斯拉合并的一个理由是,日理万机的埃隆·马斯克每季度只需召开一次财报电话会议,而非两次。这或许并非决定性因素,但将他的个人偏好置于优先地位这一想法已足够显眼。关于将太空探索技术公司与特斯拉公司合并的传言,本周笼罩了两家公司的季度财报电话会议。然而,财报结果却凸显了这种合并会有多么怪异。
One rationale for merging SpaceX with Tesla is that the ever-busy Elon Musk could do just one earnings call per quarter instead of two. Hardly decisive, perhaps, but the conceit of prioritizing his preferences is salient enough. Talk of combining Space Exploration Technologies Corp. with Tesla Inc. overshadowed the quarterly calls of both companies this week. The results, however, illustrated just how odd this merger would be.
马斯克在周二的 SpaceX 财报电话会议上确认,两家公司已成立特别委员会审议此事。他指出,自己作为两家公司的首席执行官和大股东存在利益冲突,因此无法参与讨论,同时表达了个人支持交易的倾向。他不止一次,而是三次表达热情,且语气愈发高昂,详述在“超级智能奇点”方面的合作机遇。人们几乎可以想象,那些独立委员会成员在旁聆听,面对马斯克激动的推销相视苦笑,而后郑重地将这些排除在脑海之外,专心致志地只关注什么最有利于那些非万亿富翁的股东。
Musk confirmed during Tuesday’s SpaceX call that the two companies have formed special committees to examine the issue. He noted that his conflicts as chief executive and major shareholder at both companies preclude him from participating in the discussions, while stating his personal preference in favor of a deal. Not once but three times, his enthusiasm rising as he detailed collaborative opportunities in the “super intelligence singularity.”One can almost picture those independent committee members listening in and trading wry smiles at Musk’s excitable pitch before solemnly blocking all that from their minds and focusing solely on what’s best for all those non-trillionaire shareholders.
至于财报结果,SpaceX 完全压倒了特斯拉。这家火箭公司大幅超越了相对稳定的盈利预期,而特斯拉仅勉强战胜了全年持续下调的市场共识。SpaceX 首次实现季度净利润为正,达 44 亿美元,远高于特斯拉过去四个季度净利润总和。
As for the results, SpaceX utterly eclipsed Tesla. The rocket company trounced a relatively stable earnings forecast, while Tesla eked out a small beat against a consensus that had been dropping all year. SpaceX’s first quarterly positive net income, at $4.4 billion, was considerably higher than Tesla’s for the past four quarters combined.
简而言之,尽管特斯拉估值高达荒谬的 187 倍前瞻市盈率,但这家电动汽车制造商与其“星际表亲”相比显得有些狼狈。两家公司都汇聚于人工智能、机器人和芯片等市场最热门的领域。但叙事势头已明显向 SpaceX 倾斜,不小的原因是它拥有规模大得多、且披露清晰的 AI 部门以及盈利的连接业务。
Suffice to say, the electric vehicle maker is looking a bit shabby compared to its intergalactic cousin, despite being valued at an absurd 187 times forward earnings. Both companies have converged on the hotter corners of the market, such as artificial intelligence, robots and chips. But the narrative momentum has swung markedly toward SpaceX, not least because it has a much bigger, and clearly reported, AI division and profitable connectivity business.
与此同时,特斯拉也无法逃避这样一个事实:其制造和销售汽车的主营业务已经有一段时间停止增长了。尽管最近的飞行版 Roadster 活动大肆宣传,但这款车注定销量甚至不如从未受欢迎的 Cybertruck。马斯克在特斯拉财报电话会上抛出了一个新预测,称到 2030 年年销量将达到 500 万辆,高于今年预期的 180 万辆。
Tesla, meanwhile, cannot escape the fact that its main business of making and selling cars stopped growing a while ago. For all the hoopla about its recent flying Roadster event, the vehicle is destined to sell in even fewer numbers than the never popular Cybertruck. Musk threw out a new projection of selling 5 million vehicles annually by 2030 on the Tesla call, up from an anticipated 1.8 million this year.
但别忘了,不久前特斯拉还将 2030 年的目标定在 2000 万辆。其吹嘘 Robotaxi 累计完成近 200 万英里无人监管驾驶,与竞争对手 Waymo LLC 相比显得黯然失色,后者一周行驶里程就超过那个数字的两倍。
But let’s not forget that Tesla was targeting 20 million vehicles by 2030 not so long ago. Boasts of its robotaxis racking up nearly two million miles of unsupervised driving pale in comparison to rival Waymo LLC, which drives more than double that in a week.
这一背景让人联想到马斯克帝国之前的一次合并,即特斯拉 2016 年收购 SolarCity Corp.。当时,特斯拉吞并了一家陷入困境的家用太阳能公司,而马斯克正是该公司的董事长。特斯拉的状况不像 SolarCity 那样急转直下,但它面临的挑战意味着 SpaceX 会成为一个受欢迎的买家。
This context carries echoes of a prior merger in the Musk empire, namely Tesla’s 2016 acquisition of SolarCity Corp. Back then, Tesla absorbed a struggling residential solar company where Musk was chairman. Tesla isn’t spiraling the way SolarCity was, but its challenges mean SpaceX would make for a welcome buyer.
特斯拉和 SpaceX 的估值都建立在对增长的美好愿景之上。考虑到分析师对 Robotaxi 等业务给出的巨额估值与公司相对于其宏大承诺缺乏实质进展之间的错位,特斯拉的估值显得更加如此。将特斯拉与 SpaceX 合并可能会让它们巨额的基础设施项目更容易获得资金,但额外的好处是将汽车公司的困境纳入一个更宏大、更宽广的叙事中。
Both Tesla’s and SpaceX’s valuations rest on blue-sky visions of growth. Tesla’s looks even more so given the mismatch between analysts’ huge valuations for things like robotaxis and the company’s lack of progress relative to its grandiose claims. Combining Tesla with SpaceX would likely make for easier funding of their massive infrastructure projects, but the added bonus would be to subsume the car company’s struggles into a bigger, more expansive narrative.
我们可以预期,一旦交易宣布,会大肆宣传各种协同效应。然而,主要的精简涉及的是马斯克个人的资本结构表。正如我在此文中所写,巩固对其帝国的控制权提供了马斯克所需的所有理由。他通过一类特殊股份拥有 SpaceX 约 85% 的投票权,牢牢控制该公司,这使其成为理想的收购主体。根据我的计算,如果 SpaceX 用股票以 30% 的溢价收购特斯拉,将后者估值为每股 502 美元,马斯克的事后投票权仅会下降至 74%。
We can expect big touted synergies as and when a deal gets announced. The main streamlining, however, concerns Musk’s personal capitalization table. As I wrote here, cementing control of his empire offers all the rationale Musk needs. His tight control of SpaceX, with about 85% voting power via a special class of shares, makes it the ideal vehicle. If SpaceX used stock to acquire Tesla at a 30% premium, valuing the latter at $502 per share, Musk’s pro forma voting power would only drop to 74%, by my calculations.
马斯克指出,让特斯拉超过一半的股东批准一项交易可能是一个“高门槛”。设定一个创历史新高的出价将对此有所帮助。即使溢价较小,考虑到特斯拉目前的困境和长期期权价值,他们也可能很容易被说服。当然,他们将持有对一个看起来越来越像泡沫的 AI 板块的集中押注,且几乎没有掌控权,但这与他们目前的处境究竟有多大不同?
Musk noted that getting more than half of Tesla’s shareholders to approve a deal could be a “high hurdle.”An offer price setting a new all-time peak would help on that front. Even at a smaller premium, they might be easily persuadable given Tesla’s current struggles and long-dated option value. Sure, they would own shares in a concentrated bet on an AI sector that looks ever more bubbly, and with little power to direct things, but how different is that really from their current situation?
更大的反对可能来自 SpaceX 的普通股东。按那个价格水平,特斯拉股东最终将拥有合并后公司近 50% 的股份——尽管特斯拉在几乎所有你能想到的指标上贡献都少得多,但他们的持股比例却与 SpaceX 股东几乎持平。
The bigger objections might come from SpaceX’s regular shareholders. At that price level, Tesla’s shareholders would end up owning almost 50% of the combined company — almost equal to their counterparts at SpaceX despite Tesla contributing far less on pretty much any metric you can think of.
不过,任何此类反对后果都微乎其微,因为普通 SpaceX 股东的投票权仅约 11%。而且他们投资时明知这枚火箭只有一个驾驶员。马斯克将特别委员会在他缺席时的讨论称为“奇怪的歌舞伎”,这或许正是那些值得信他所言的时刻之一。
Then again, any such objections would be of very little consequence, given regular SpaceX shareholders’ paltry voting power of about 11%. Plus, they bought into the company knowing precisely that this particular rocket has only one pilot. Musk characterized the special committees’ discussions without him as an “odd kabuki,” this may be one of those instances where it is worth taking him at his word.