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法国爆发抗议之际,欧洲极右翼借燃油价格民怨在选举前得势As France erupts, Europe's far right gains from fuel-price anger ahead of elections

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驶入欧洲最南端杰拉镇的拖拉机上飘扬着西西里岛的旗帜,旗帜上有美杜莎、三条弯曲的腿和麦穗的图案,这让人想起该岛自罗马时代起作为粮仓的角色。但农民们并不是来收割庄稼的,他们在抗议。

The tractors rolling into the town of Gela on the southern tip of Europe are flying the Sicilian flag, emblazoned with Medusa, three bent legs, and ears of wheat, a reminder of the island's role as a breadbasket since Roman times. But the farmers are not bringing in a harvest.

随着飙升的燃料价格挤压全欧洲的家庭预算和企业,生活成本压力正在引发社会动荡,并为包括法国、意大利和波兰在内的多国在明年选举前夕的极右翼政党注入了新的势头。

They are protesting.

从法国农村的驾车者到德国前共产主义东部的年轻男子,选民们都在寻找替代选择,曾经被认为是边缘的政党已经取得了进展。美国与伊朗战争的余波2月爆发的美国与伊朗战争导致能源价格急剧上涨,这给那些本已在努力遏制通胀、支持增长和控制开支的政府带来了更大的挑战。这种不满情绪已经蔓延到街头。

As soaring fuel prices squeeze household budgets and businesses across Europe, cost-of-living pressures are driving unrest and giving far-right parties fresh momentum ahead of elections next year in countries including France, Italy and Poland. Parties once considered fringe had already been gaining ground, with voters from motorists in rural France to young men in Germany's former Communist east looking for alternatives. Fallout from US war with IranThe US-Iran war, which erupted in February and sent energy prices sharply higher, has compounded the challenge for governments already struggling to contain inflation, support growth and rein in spending.

在法国,从巴黎北部郊区学校设施恶化开始的示威活动,已经演变成该国几十年来最严重的动荡之一,商店被抢劫、建筑物被纵火,利摩日一座19世纪的市政厅被放火焚烧。

The discontent has spilled onto the streets.

档案照片:在由“黄马甲”运动发起、法国中学生和大学生加入的全法国范围抗议活动中,一名戴着面具的抗议者在巴黎街头的冲突中走过燃烧的自行车,抗议生活成本和燃油价格上涨。FILE PHOTO: A masked protester walks past burning bicycles amid clashes in a street during a day of demonstrations against the cost of living and rising fuel prices in Paris as part of nationwide protests called by the ''Yellow Vests'' movement, joined by French high school and university students,

“我为什么会在这里?嗯,很简单,我发现当前的生活成本真的很可怕,”南特21岁的抗议者昆廷·莱维卢克斯说。

In France, demonstrations that began over deteriorating school facilities in Paris' northern suburbs have morphed into some of the country's worst unrest in decades, with shops looted, buildings torched and a 19th-century town hall in Limoges set on fire."

“想想那些勉强挣到最低工资的人,当你看看食品、燃料和其他一切的成本时,东西变得如此难以置信地昂贵,这太可怕了。”

Why am I here?

欧盟委员会估计,伊朗冲突通过受干扰的贸易和能源市场给欧洲造成了大约1120亿美元的损失。天然气价格飙升了约140%,柴油价格翻了一番。

Well, quite simply, I find the current cost of living truly terrifying," said Quentin Leviloux, a 21-year-old protester in Nantes." Just think of people who earn barely the minimum wage, when you look at the cost of food, fuel, and everything else.

在周末的讲话中,法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙承认了因生活和燃料成本上升而愤怒的抗议者的“正当诉求”,同时谴责了对暴力和抢劫负有责任的人。

It's terrifying how incredibly expensive things have become."

“我们绝不能把他们与那些搞破坏、肆意破坏公物和抢劫的人混为一谈,”他说。暴力抗议席卷欧洲各地暴力事件也在其他地方发生。在意大利北部的富裕城市米兰,周日当天,因不满公共服务糟糕及生活成本上涨,抗议者投掷石块并洗劫商店,警方随即与他们发生冲突。

The European Commission estimates the Iran conflict has cost Europe roughly $112 billion through disrupted trade and energy markets. Gas prices have jumped about 140%, and diesel prices have doubled. In a weekend address, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged the "legitimate demands" of protesters angered by rising living and fuel costs, while condemning those responsible for violence and looting.

在西西里岛南岸的杰拉,农民们表示,燃料价格上涨使得农机使用成本高得难以承受。“我们辛勤耕作,收获的却只有债务,”一面横幅上这样写着。

"We must never confuse them with those who destroyed, vandalized and looted," he said. Violent protests erupt across EuropeViolence has also erupted elsewhere.

“我们现在完全停滞不前,”卡尔塔尼塞塔省的农民代表阿尔坎杰洛·甘比诺说道。

In the wealthy northern Italian city of Milan, police clashed on Sunday with protesters hurling stones and looting stores during demonstrations over poor public services and rising living costs.

“燃料成本已经翻了一番多。”卡车司机、农民和钢铁工人的抗议活动扰乱了意大利南部部分地区的水路和陆路交通,导致当地燃料供应短缺,人们开始担忧超市的燃料供应情况。周六,数万人在里斯本游行,抗议低工资、高房价以及不断上涨的生活成本,这给葡萄牙的中右翼政府带来了巨大压力。在西班牙,一名87岁妇女被驱逐出家门的事件引发了全国性的抗议活动,人们抗议住房短缺和租金飞涨,这促使该国下个月提前举行大选。

In Gela, on Sicily's southern coast, farmers say fuel costs have made operating machinery prohibitively expensive. "We cultivate the land, we harvest debts," said one banner." We are completely at a standstill," said Arcangelo Gambino, a farmers' representative in Caltanissetta province. "The (fuel) cost has more than doubled."

比利时也发生了抗议活动;而在阿尔巴尼亚,大规模的抗议活动则是由于人们对政府腐败、就业机会匮乏以及教育质量低下的愤怒所引发的。这些抗议活动反映了整个欧洲普遍存在的经济焦虑情绪。巴黎政治学院的政治学家吉勒斯·伊瓦尔迪(Gilles Ivaldi)表示:“人们对购买力的担忧已成为欧洲民粹主义政治的主要推动力。”

Roadblocks by truckers, farmers and steelworkers have disrupted transport across parts of southern Italy, contributing to local fuel shortages and concerns over supermarket supplies. Tens of thousands marched through Lisbon on Saturday over low wages, housing costs and the rising cost of living, increasing pressure on Portugal's center-right government. In Spain, the eviction of an 87-year-old woman from her home sparked nationwide demonstrations over housing shortages and soaring rents, helping trigger a snap election next month.

2026年10月19日,人们在葡萄牙里斯本罗西奥广场的一个抗议营地内,抗议住房危机和生活成本上涨。(图片来源:REUTERS/PEDRO NUNES)People at a protest camp Rossio square against house crisis and cost of living, in Lisbon, Portugal, October 19, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/PEDRO NUNES)

无论是极右翼还是极左翼的政治家,都越来越多地主张恢复与俄罗斯的能源合作关系以降低能源成本,这挑战了欧洲主流社会对乌克兰的支持立场。勒庞(Marine Le Pen)将燃料价格问题作为她的竞选议题。此次能源危机发生在疫情后的多年经济困境之中,以及俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰所带来的后果之后。在法国,不断上涨的能源成本为明年4月的总统选举营造了紧张的氛围:马克龙政府正面临着日益严重的预算赤字问题以及债券市场的压力。

Belgium has also seen demonstrations, while large rallies in Albania have been driven by anger over perceived government corruption, a lack of jobs and poor education standards. The protests reflect broader economic anxieties that are increasingly shaping politics across the continenncerns about purchasing power have become "a major driver of populist politics" across Europe, said Gilles Ivaldi, a political scientist at Sciences Po. Politicians on both the hard right and hard left have increasingly argued that restoring energy ties with Russia would help lower costs, challenging Europe's mainstream consensus on support for Ukraine. Le Pen makes fuel prices a campaign issueThe latest energy shock comes after years of economic strain following the pandemic and the fallout from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

极右翼政党“国民联盟”(National Rally)的领先候选人玛丽娜·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)和极左翼政党“社会党”(Socialist Party)的资深候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)都将燃料价格问题作为他们竞选纲领的核心内容。伊瓦尔迪指出:“燃料价格的上涨显然对玛丽娜·勒庞的竞选活动起到了推动作用。”

In France, rising energy costs have provided an explosive backdrop to next April's presidential election. Macron's government is struggling with a ballooning budget deficit and pressure from bond markets.

“我认为这个问题她已经关注了很长时间。”根据Elabe的民意调查,自伊朗战争爆发以来,勒庞的支持率有所上升,而马克龙的支持率则有所下降。勒庞提出的大幅削减燃料增值税的提议获得了广泛的社会支持。分析人士指出,这一提议特别符合她在农村和半农村地区的核心选民的需求——在这些地区,汽车出行往往是人们日常生活的重要组成部分。

Frontrunner Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally and hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon have both made fuel prices central planks in their campaigns.“Rising fuel prices are clearly an issue that boosts Marine Le Pen,” said Ivaldi. “I think this is an issue she has owned for quite some time." Since the Iran war began, Le Pen's ratings have improved while Macron's have slipped, according to polling by Elabe. Le Pen's proposal to sharply cut value-added tax on fuel has attracted broad public support.

关于与俄罗斯恢复关系的呼声在邻国德国,选择德国党(AfD)在地方选举中取得了显著胜利,目前在全德民意调查中处于领先地位。本月发布的一项调查显示,生活成本问题连续第五年成为德国人最关心的问题。9月份,德国的通货膨胀率飙升至近三年来的最高水平,其中能源价格涨幅达到了14.9%,这为选择德国党攻击总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨提供了有力依据。

Analysts say the issue resonates strongly with her core voters in rural and semi-rural areas where car travel is often essential. Calls to restore ties with RussiaIn neighboring Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading national opinion polls after strong gains in local elections. The cost of living topped Germans' concerns for a fifth straight year in a survey published this month.

选择德国党主张恢复与俄罗斯的能源合作关系,认为德国在当前欧洲最大经济体及许多能源需求旺盛的企业面临困境的情况下,对乌克兰的支持实际上是在自我削弱。

German inflation spiked to nearly a three-year high in September, with energy price inflation rising to 14.9%, handing ammunition to the AfD to attack Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

慕尼黑工业大学气候变化政治经济学教授扬·施泰克尔(Jan Steckel)指出:“过去的经验表明,高能源价格与选择德国党的选民支持率之间存在关联。民粹主义政党往往将能源成本视为可以避免的问题,并将其归咎于政府的政策选择,而非导致这些问题的根本性地缘政治因素。而这些地缘政治因素其实更难以解释;因此,执政党往往难以应对这类挑战。”

The AfD is pushing to restore energy ties with Russia, arguing that Berlin's support for Ukraine is needlessly self-sabotaging at a time when Europe's largest economy and many of its energy-hungry companies are struggling.

这一观点在其他国家也日益受到关注。在意大利,总理乔治娅·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)面临着来自新成立的极右翼政党“国家未来党”(National Future)的日益激烈的竞争;该党由前陆军将军罗伯托·瓦纳奇(Roberto Vannacci)领导,主张恢复与俄罗斯的天然气供应关系。在波兰——这个坚定支持乌克兰的国家——人们对能源费用的担忧正在推动极右翼政党“波兰王冠联盟”(Confederation of the Polish Crown)的支持率上升。

Past experience indicates a link between high energy prices and voter turnout for the AfD, said Jan Steckel, professor for the political economy of climate change at the Technical University of Munich.“Populist parties often frame energy costs as avoidable and attribute them to government policy choices ... rather than to the underlying geopolitical shocks that drive them," he said.“These geopolitical shocks are ... much more difficult to explain. And I think this is why incumbent parties often struggle." The argument is gaining traction elsewhere. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces growing competition from National Future, a new far-right party led by former army general Roberto Vannacci that advocates restoring gas links with Russia.

该党领导人格热戈日·布劳恩呼吁恢复购买俄罗斯石油和天然气,他在德国吕布明与德国选择党政客一道提出这一主张,受损的北溪管道就登陆于此。“我喜欢早晨俄罗斯天然气的气味,”他说。

In Poland, one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters, concern over energy bills is helping boost support for the far-right Confederation of the Polish Crown. Its leader, Grzegorz Braun, has called for a return to buying Russian oil and gas, making the case alongside AfD politicians in Lubmin, where the damaged Nord Stream pipelines land in Germany.“I love the smell of Russian gas in the morning,” he said.

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