随着法国在周末陷入大规模骚乱，右翼人士将混乱归咎于该国的移民政策。这一叙事助长了极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞长期以来的反移民立场。
As France was gripped by massive rioting over the weekend, right-wing figures linked the chaos to the country's immigration policies. The narrative has played into far-right leader Marine Le Pen's long-standing anti-immigration stance.
随着骚乱和暴力在上周末席卷法国，极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞抓住时机，对总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙发起猛烈抨击，指责他应对混乱负责。但比起她的讲话内容，更引人注目的是现场布置。勒庞坐在办公桌后，法国国旗醒目地陈列在她身旁。这营造出一位总统向全国发表讲话的形象。
As riots and violence swept France last weekend, far-right leader Marine Le Pen seized the moment to launch a scathing attack on President Emmanuel Macron, blaming him for the chaos. But more than her address, what captured attention was the setting. Le Pen was seen seated behind a desk, with the French flag prominently displayed beside her. It evoked the image of a president addressing the nation.
这种镜头语言引发了一个相关问题。距离大选仅剩六个月，这场动荡会不会成为勒庞及其国民联盟党意外的政治红利？随着马克龙启程访问中东，勒庞将自己包装为一名“法治与秩序”候选人。
The optics have raised a pertinent question. With elections just six months away, could the turmoil prove to be an unexpected political windfall for Le Pen and her National Rally party? With Macron jetting off on his Middle East visit, Le Pen has cast herself as a "law and order" candidate.
法国抗议会让勒庞受益吗？过去一周，抗议活动始于学生为学校条件恶劣发起的和平示威，随后滚雪球般演变为一场针对生活成本高企、通货膨胀和公共服务衰退的更广泛运动。骚乱在周末升级，蒙面暴徒纵火焚烧建筑、抢劫商店、与警方发生冲突。
WILL FRANCE PROTESTS BENEFIT LE PEN? Over the past week, protests that began with a peaceful, student-led agitation over the poor condition of schools have snowballed into a broader movement against the cost of living, inflation and declining public services. The unrest escalated over the weekend, with masked rioters setting buildings on fire, looting shops, and clashing with the police.
虽然当局将暴力归因于经济不满和激进团体，但右翼人士将混乱与法国的移民政策联系起来。这一叙事迎合了勒庞长期以来的反移民立场，让她得以推销其法治与秩序的主张。
While authorities have attributed the violence to economic grievances and radical groups, right-wing figures have linked the chaos to France's immigration policies. The narrative has played into Le Pen's long-standing anti-immigration stance, allowing her to push her law-and-order pitch.
多年来，作为法国长期的“待命领导人”，勒庞一直将这个欧洲国家描绘为一个在移民问题和日益猖獗的无法无天中挣扎的国家。在当前的动荡中，勒庞试图将自己定位为唯一有能力恢复法治与秩序的领导人。
For years, Le Pen, France's perennial leader in waiting, has portrayed the European nation as a country struggling with immigration and rising lawlessness. Amid the present turmoil, Le Pen has tried to position herself as the only leader capable of restoring law and order.
在演讲中，她将抗议活动随后的打砸抢烧归咎于左翼和“数十年的移民”。然而，她没有提供任何确凿的证据来支撑她关于骚乱是由移民领导的说法。法国当局并未将移民卷入暴力事件。
In her address, she blamed the Left and "decades of immigration" for the looting and destruction that followed the protests. However, she did not provide any firm evidence to support her claim that the rioting was led by immigrants. French authorities have not implicated migrants in the violence.
勒庞说：“六个月后，法国人民将能够选择一条不同的道路——一条充满权威和恢复安全的道路。”她还助长了一种右翼叙事，即煽动抗议活动的不是法国人民，而是移民。
"In six months, the French people will be able to choose a different path - one of authority and restored security," Le Pen said. She has also fuelled right-wing narratives that immigrants, and not the French people, were instigating the protests.
她一直试图将动荡描绘成极左翼激进分子与居住在该国贫困地区的年轻人勾结的产物。法国的大部分少数族裔穆斯林人口都居住在这些地区。他们大多数都有移民背景。
She has sought to cast the unrest as the work of far-left radicals allied with youths residing in the country's poor pockets. Much of France's minority Muslim population resides in these areas. Most of them have immigrant backgrounds.
为了支持自己的断言，勒庞所在党派指出了一部分被发现携带巴勒斯坦和阿尔及利亚国旗的抗议者。
To buttress her assertions, Le Pen's party has pointed towards a section of protesters spotted carrying Palestinian and Algerian flags.
专家认为，在选举前夕，动荡及其对马克龙的中间派政党造成的损害最终可能会将勒庞推上爱丽舍宫——法国总统的官邸。
Experts feel the unrest and the damage it has caused to Macron's centrist party, just ahead of the elections, could eventually propel Le Pen to Elysee Palace - the official residence of the French president.
一位法国民调专家在谈到勒庞的全国讲话时对《华尔街日报》表示：“这就好像她在办公室里，已经身处爱丽舍宫一样。”
"It's as if she's at the office, already at the Elysee Palace," a French pollster told The Wall Street Journal, referring to Le Pen's national address.
就连她的竞争对手也承认，这场混乱最有利于这位极右翼领导人。中右翼议员娜塔莉·卢瓦佐在一次采访中说：“动荡对极右翼有利……他们像秃鹰一样在暴力周围盘旋。”
Even her rivals admit that the turmoil stands to benefit the far-right leader the most. "The unrest benefits the far right... They are circling around the violence like vultures," centre-right MP Nathalie Loiseau said in an interview.
最新的民调显示，勒庞已经远远领先于其他候选人。法国伊索普研究所近期的一项民调显示，勒庞（54%）远远领先于前总理爱德华·菲利普（46%），后者是希望接续马克龙中间派火炬的最强候选人之一。
Recent polls show Le Pen is already far ahead of other candidates. A recent Ifop poll showed Le Pen (54%) way ahead of former prime minister Edouard Philippe (46%), one of the strongest candidates looking to carry Macron's centrist torch.
由于宪法规定总统最多只能连续担任两届五年任期，马克龙明年将不会竞选连任。经济纠葛暴力事件也给了勒庞一个机会，去攻击她所谓的“马克龙派有毒政策”。法国的经济烂摊子让马克龙在大选前几乎没有回旋余地。
Macron won't be up for re-election next year as the Constitution limits a president to a maximum of two consecutive five-year terms. THE ECONOMIC TANGLE The violence has also given Le Pen an opportunity to attack what she has called "Macronist toxic policies" regarding the economy. France's economic mess leaves Macron little wriggle room ahead of the polls.
多年来，财政赤字一直维持在5%以上，而该国债务堆积已接近GDP的120%。事实上，这种局面让马克龙没有多余的现金去收买抗议者，欧洲政策中心访问研究员保罗·泰勒在《卫报》的一篇评论文章中写道。
The fiscal deficits have been above 5% for years, while the country's debt pile is nearly 120% of the GDP. In fact, the situation leaves Macron no spare cash left to buy off protesters, Paul Taylor, a visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre, wrote in an op-ed for The Guardian.
然而，经济并非勒庞的强项。2017年她首次对阵马克龙时，承诺让法国退出欧元区，结果证明是灾难性的。此外，她2025年因挪用欧洲议会资金被判刑，这在选民记忆中仍历历在目。
However, the economy is not exactly Le Pen's strong spot. When she first ran against Macron in 2017, with a pledge to pull France out of the euro, it proved to be disastrous. Moreover, her 2025 conviction for misusing European Parliament funds will be fresh in the minds of voters.
因此，如果法国大选的叙事仅聚焦于谁能拯救经济，而将其与安全和移民议题剥离，勒庞可能面临一场艰难的战斗。
Thus, if the French election narrative solely focuses on who can save the economy, delinking it from the security and immigration aspect, Le Pen might have a tough battle on her hands.
尽管如此，暴力和骚乱已为勒庞提供了一个跳板，让她能提前启动竞选活动。
Nevertheless, the violence and rioting have given Le Pen a springboard to launch her campaign early.
墨尔本大学教授彼得·麦克菲将这场动荡描述为大选前给勒庞的“圣诞礼物”。麦克菲是否说中了，六个月后便知分晓。
Peter McPhee, a professor at the University of Melbourne, described the turmoil as a "Christmas present" for Le Pen ahead of the presidential election. Whether McPhee proves right will be known in six months from now.